River Flood Warning 28, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1236 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1228 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

 - Stormy period today and possibly Friday. Any heavy rainfall
   will lead to rapid onset flooding across much of NE OK. Severe
   weather potential today and possibly again Friday.

 - Timing and placement details of the heaviest rains and higher
   severe weather chances remain uncertain. However chances are
   likely higher north of Interstate 40 for the most impactful
   weather.

 - A more typical summer time pattern expected early next week.
   Heat advisory headlines will likely be needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Another round of heavy rainfall occurred this morning in a narrow
band across portions of northeast Oklahoma. Areas of elevated,
warm advection storms continue across western portions of Osage
and Pawnee Counties with a continued flooding threat owing to the
already saturated soils and swollen creeks and streams. Across the
rest of the area warm and humid conditions persist south of a
pseudo warm front draped generally near Highway 412 in northeast
Oklahoma. The evolution of the elevated convection and the
associated surface boundary through the early afternoon will play
a critical role in what happens later this afternoon in regards to
severe weather potential across the area. A complex of storms
currently moving across south central Kansas will likely re
enforce the warm frontal boundary near the OK/KS border by mid
afternoon. Current convection is progged to lift northeast into
Kansas by mid afternoon as the 850hPA frontal zone lift north in
response to a mid level shortwave tracking across southern Kansas.

As this occurs the atmosphere will become increasingly unstable
south of the ongoing convection and warm front. More robust
convection is forecast to occur in the vicinity of the frontal
zone along the OK/KS border by mid afternoon. More favorable wind
fields are also progged to develop during this time as a surface
low deepens west of the local region and stronger westerly flow
aloft associated with the passing wave move over the region. This
will allow for more organized severe weather potential including
supercells capable of large hail and a couple tornadoes as the low
level flow increases into the late afternoon and evening hours.
Storms should move to the southeast deeper into northeast Oklahoma
through the evening with the attendant severe threat decreasing
somewhat further south where conditions are less favorable for
organized severe weather. Severe chances will drop south of
Highway 412 and be very low for locations south of I-40 through
this evening. Storms will also develop out west and an MCS could
develop and push eastward across eastern Oklahoma overnight
tonight. Heavy rainfall will continue to be the primary threat
with this activity as already saturated ground and swollen creeks
and streams will facilitate the rapid onset of flooding with any
thunderstorms over northeast Oklahoma. Thus, the Flood Watch
remains in effect through Friday morning.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Moving into Friday the pattern begins to shift to a more typical
summertime pattern with rising heights over the Southern Plains as
a ridge builds across the eastern CONUS. Scattered thunderstorm
development remains possible through the day Friday as a deep moisture
boundary remains in place over northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. At least a marginal severe threat will possible with
this activity along with heavy rainfall. By Saturday, the ridge
will become firmly in place over the region with primarily dry
weather persisting through the next week. Heat and humidity will
also build across the area, and daily heat headline will likely be
needed across a good portion of the forecast area as heat index
values exceed 105 degrees most afternoons. Some isolated diurnal
thunderstorm chances will still be possible, especially in the
terrain, through next week as we remain on the western periphery
of the building ridge. Otherwise, more typical summertime weather
will arrive heading into July.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Low clouds across NE OK in the near term, and the timing and
location of storms will be the main impacts this forecast. The low
cigs should scatter out this afternoon, with increasing thunder
potential across NE OK this afternoon. There is low potential at
the NW AR sites as well. Multiple rounds of storms are possible at
the NE OK and NW AR sites, though confidence in how far south is
not high enough to just do TEMPOs at all sites. Used PROB30 at
others where confidence is lower. Current thinking is that storm
chances will drop off by 12Z, with no mention at any site after
this point. Brief periods of LLWS conditions are possible, but are
transient enough to keep mention out for now.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  90  77  92 /  40  20  30  10
FSM   75  91  77  93 /  20  20  10  10
MLC   77  90  78  92 /  20  20   0   0
BVO   71  88  74  91 /  60  10  20  10
FYV   72  86  74  88 /  40  40  40  20
BYV   71  85  73  88 /  50  30  40  20
MKO   75  88  77  90 /  40  20  20  10
MIO   71  87  73  90 /  60  30  50  20
F10   75  89  77  91 /  40  20  10  10
HHW   75  90  76  92 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Friday morning for OKZ055>070-154-254-354.

AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...30

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