Flash Flood Warning 58, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1236 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1233 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

 - Stormy period today and possibly Friday. Any heavy rainfall
   will lead to rapid onset flooding across much of NE OK. Severe
   weather potential today and possibly again Friday.

 - Timing and placement details of the heaviest rains and higher
   severe weather chances remain uncertain. However chances are
   likely higher north of Interstate 40 for the most impactful
   weather.

 - A more typical summer time pattern expected early next week.
   Heat advisory headlines will likely be needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Thursday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Convectively active period continues with storm chances trending
up late tonight and especially during the day Thursday through
Thursday evening. NW to SE corridor of convection extending across
the forecast area is possible from late tonight through sunrise
with some degree of MCS likely spreading into the forecast area
during the time. Timing and organization of the MCS potential is
uncertain with a later arrival allowing for ample destabilization
and an uptick in severe potential. Steering flow will becoming
more E to W allowing storm chances to decrease across the southern
tier of the forecast area.
Conditions in the wake of the earlier round of storms become more
supportive of severe weather as wind fields increase especially in
the lowest levels. This coupled with any remnant outflow boundary
would be a corridor of focus for higher end severe weather all
contingent upon storms to redevelop in the wake of an MCS. This
scenario carries high uncertainty and will be the focus through
Thursday evening. Flooding issues will quickly develop due to
recent rainfall across much of NE OK and observations from the
rains on Wednesday indicate that even lesser amounts of rain but
in a short time frame will likely lead to issues. Expect
additional flood warnings with the convective event ahead and the
flood watch remains in effect.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Storm chances continue on Friday but will likely be strongly
influenced by what occurs on Thursday especially with regards to
sfc boundary locations. Again expect higher chances across
northern locations and the severe weather and heavy rain potential
remain in place.

The pattern change is underway by Saturday and firmly in place by
early next week. Hot and humid conditions with very low rain
chances will likely persist through much of next week. Expect
dangerous heat index values to develop almost daily and heat
headlines continue to appear likely.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

MVFR ceilings will develop at most sites overnight into Thursday
morning, with the possible exceptions of KMLC and KFSM. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday, mainly during the
afternoon and evening. VFR conditions will return to all sites by
late Thursday afternoon or evening except within heavier showers
or storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  75  90  77 /  60  40  20  40
FSM   90  75  91  76 /  50  20  10  10
MLC   90  77  90  78 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   85  70  88  74 /  70  60  20  40
FYV   86  72  86  74 /  60  40  30  30
BYV   85  71  85  73 /  60  50  40  40
MKO   88  75  89  76 /  40  20  20  20
MIO   85  71  87  74 /  70  70  40  50
F10   88  75  89  76 /  40  20  20  20
HHW   90  75  90  77 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Friday morning for OKZ055>071-073>075-154-
     172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
520 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-252230-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
520 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FLASH FLOOD AND HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Ongoing areas of showers and storms across northwest Arkansas will
continue to shift eastward early this evening, with a break likely
across much of the area by mid evening. A few storms have
developed across portions of far southeast Oklahoma, along a
residual outflow boundary left over form the morning activity.
Sufficient instability and shear could lead to some strong to
severe storms, with large hail and damaging winds the primary
concerns along with heavy rainfall.

A band of showers and thunderstorms is expected to redevelop
late tonight into Thursday morning, mainly across northeast
Oklahoma, but this activity could expand into parts of west
central Arkansas. Very heavy rainfall rates and flash flooding
will be the primary concern, especially with the saturated ground
across much of the region.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...High Wind Potential...Dangerous Heat
                       Potential.
TUESDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue Thursday and Friday,
mainly across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Thursday
looks to be the day of greatest concern with regards to severe
weather potential, with all modes of severe weather possible,
including tornadoes, especially across northeast Oklahoma into far
northwest Arkansas.

Hot, humid, and breezy conditions are expected this weekend into
early next week. Afternoon heat index values will likely exceed
100 degrees in many places Saturday through Tuesday.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.