Wind Advisory 5, NWS Topeka, KS

192 
WWUS73 KTOP 180158
NPWTOP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Topeka KS
858 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

KSZ035>038-054-181400-
/O.EXP.KTOP.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-260518T0200Z/
/O.CON.KTOP.WI.Y.0005.260518T1400Z-260519T0200Z/
Dickinson-Geary-Morris-Wabaunsee-Lyon-
Including the cities of McFarland, Abilene, Eskridge, Herington,
Emporia, Junction City, Harveyville, Maple Hill, Alta Vista,
Alma, Council Grove, and Paxico
858 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected.

* WHERE...Dickinson, Geary, Lyon, Morris, and Wabaunsee Counties.

* WHEN...From 9 AM to 9 PM CDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Small 
  tree limbs could be blown down too. Isolated power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution while driving.

Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

KSZ008>012-020>024-034-039-055-058-180300-
/O.EXP.KTOP.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-260518T0200Z/
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Ottawa-Shawnee-Osage-Coffey-
Including the cities of Bennington, Lebo, Seneca, Clay Center,
Clifton, Hiawatha, Burlingame, St. Marys, Holton, Topeka,
Hanover, Linn, Washington, Frankfort, Carbondale, Marysville,
Blue Rapids, Sabetha, Lyndon, Greenleaf, Manhattan, Horton,
Concordia, Burlington, Wamego, Minneapolis, Overbrook, Osage
City, and Belleville
858 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

The winds have weakened and are no longer expected to be strong.

$$

514 
WWUS73 KTOP 180602
NPWTOP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Topeka KS
102 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

KSZ035>038-054-190200-
/O.CON.KTOP.WI.Y.0005.260518T1400Z-260519T0200Z/
Dickinson-Geary-Morris-Wabaunsee-Lyon-
Including the cities of McFarland, Alma, Abilene, Emporia,
Herington, Paxico, Eskridge, Junction City, Maple Hill,
Harveyville, Alta Vista, and Council Grove
102 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM 
CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected.

* WHERE...Dickinson, Geary, Lyon, Morris, and Wabaunsee Counties.

* WHEN...From 9 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Small 
  tree limbs could be blown down too. Isolated power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution while driving.

Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

JP

095 
WWUS73 KTOP 190158
NPWTOP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Topeka KS
858 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

KSZ035>038-054-190300-
/O.EXP.KTOP.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-260519T0200Z/
Dickinson-Geary-Morris-Wabaunsee-Lyon-
Including the cities of McFarland, Junction City, Abilene, Alma,
Maple Hill, Alta Vista, Eskridge, Harveyville, Herington, Council
Grove, Emporia, and Paxico
858 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

The synoptic winds have weakened and are no longer expected to be 
strong outside of any thunderstorms.

$$

BD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
601 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered severe storms are expected to develop late this
afternoon into the evening hours for portions of north central and
northern Kansas.

- Widespread severe storms are still on track to develop late Monday
afternoon across central Kansas, shifting into northeast and east
central Kansas during the evening and overnight hours. All severe
threats are possible.

- After below normal temperatures and dry conditions Tuesday and
Wednesday, shower and storm chances return Thursday-Saturday to the
region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Mid level shortwave trough continues to exit northward into Nebraska
and Iowa this morning, while residual showers linger behind the
weakening overnight MCS. Showers dissipate before sunrise with
gradually clearing skies by mid afternoon today. Low level troughing
ejects from southeast CO into western KS later this morning,
inducing a deepening pressure gradient in the low levels from
central to portions of northeast Kansas where south winds reach
advisory levels from 20 to 30 mph sustained. Focus shifts to storm
development by late afternoon as the front sets up west of the
forecast area. An embedded vort max is progged to enter the region
by late afternoon as the warm and humid conditions at the sfc
bolster instability in excess of 4000 J/KG while the capping
inversion diminishes. Short term models are coming into better
agreement with the isolated convection developing within the warm
sector after 5 PM, expanding into a linear segment as it tracks east
over far northern Kansas. Decent curvature is observed in the low
levels on forecast hodographs, due to the increasing effective bulk
shear, particularly as the low level jet increases in the evening.
Large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts are the initial
concerns, followed by the possibility for a few tornadoes as the low
level jet strengthens by early evening. If storms backbuild across
portions of north central Kansas once again, localized flooding is
possible given the few inches of rainfall that occurred the previous
evening.

The higher, more widespread threat for severe storms remains on
track for Monday afternoon and evening.  Morning showers and storms
are anticipated to clear eastern Kansas by mid morning, allowing the
atmosphere to recover for redevelopment by late afternoon. Forecast
instability ranges from 3500-5000 J/KG within the warm sector, just
ahead of the sfc low axis, cold front and dryline intersection. As
the mid level speed max ejects from CO into the plains, convection
becomes very likely from north central to central Kansas. Soundings
in this area exhibit minimal inhibition by this time and steep mid
level lapse rates, supportive of very large hail (greater than 2
inches) given the expansive amount of MLCAPE and damaging winds.
Main question remains on the timing of initation and how quickly
discrete supercells will merge into a line as the cold front shifts
southeast through the forecast area. This may mitigate the strong,
long track tornado threat, albeit the support of the low level jet
elongates the hodographs and increases low level SRH up to 300
m2/s2. Overall, if storms are able to remain discrete in the early
evening, the threat for strong tornadoes increases for much of
northeast Kansas. Otherwise, the damaging wind threat and weaker
tornadoes become a concern as a strong MCS forms. Increasing PWAT
values above 1.5 inches and backbuilding of storms behind the sfc
front is indicative of flash flooding potential, especially where
antecedent rainfall has occurred over north central Kansas.
Confidence is not high enough for a flood watch headline, however
this may change if we see additional heavy rain this evening.

Severe storms should exit with the front by Tuesday morning,
returning dry and well below normal temperatures to the region
Tuesday afternoon. Highs are progged to be around 25 degrees cooler
than the last few days in the upper 60s. Broad troughing to the west
brings additional waves into the region by Thursday as dewpoints in
the 60s return to the region. Chances are reflective of the showers
with lesser probs for thunder given the weak instability observed by
the long term guidance. While much uncertainty in timing and
location is present late week into next weekend, there is a signal
from the midlevel mean flow for the active weather pattern to
persist.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 558 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

VFR at terminals with mainly a wind forecast this period. Gusty south winds
after 13Z from 20 to 27 kts sustained, gusting near 40 kts in the afternoon.
At this issuance, most guidance keeps TSRA north of the terminals late
this evening.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Record High Temperature

Sunday May 17
                 Record (Year)           Forecast
Topeka           92 (1907)               90
Concordia        96 (1996)               97

Monday May 18
                 Record (Year)           Forecast
Topeka           94 (1975)               91
Concordia        94 (1967, 1988)         89

Record Warm Low Temperature

Sunday May 17
                 Record (Year)           Forecast
Topeka           73 (1996)               69
Concordia        68 (1902, 1906)         67

Monday May 18
                 Record (Year)           Forecast
Topeka           71 (1911)               70
Concordia        72 (1911)               64

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-
KSZ024-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ058.

&&

DISCUSSION...22
AVIATION...22
CLIMATE...Drake/22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
345 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

KSZ008>012-020>024-034>039-054-055-058-180845-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-Wabaunsee-Shawnee-
Lyon-Osage-Coffey-
345 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
CDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central
Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Gusty south winds from 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph from mid
morning through early evening.

Scattered severe storms are possible after 5 PM across north central
Kansas. These storms may form into a line as they move east southeast
this evening. Very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few, weak
tornadoes are the main hazards. Localized flooding is also a concern
if storms train over areas that received heavy rain the previous
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The greatest chance for severe weather is still shaping up to be
Monday afternoon and Monday night. There is good confidence in
storms developing over north central KS by the early evening and
moving across all of northeast and east central Kansas through the
night. Storms will be capable of producing tornadoes, very large
hail, damaging winds and flash flooding. People should be prepared
for thunderstorms impacting the area.

.SPOTTER MESSAGE

Weather spotters are encouraged to relay reports of hail, damaging
wind, tornadoes and flooding.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

KSZ026-040-056-059-180845-
Jefferson-Douglas-Franklin-Anderson-
345 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Kansas and
northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Severe storms are expected to develop over north central Kansas
before forming into a line as they gradually weaken into portions of
east central Kansas in the late evening. There is a low probability
for the storms to be severe by the time they reach east central
Kansas. Damaging wind gusts from 50-60 mph are the main hazard.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The greatest chance for severe weather is still shaping up to be
Monday afternoon and Monday night. There is good confidence in
storms developing over north central KS by the early evening and
moving across all of northeast and east central Kansas through the
night. Storms will be capable of producing tornadoes, very large
hail, damaging winds and flash flooding. People should be prepared
for thunderstorms impacting the area.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1002 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1134 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Concordia               39.57N 97.67W
05/16/2026                   Cloud              KS   Trained Spotter

            6-8 Inch Tree Limbs downed. Tree damage
            widespread across town. Time estimated from
            radar.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1011 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1134 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Concordia               39.57N 97.67W
05/16/2026                   Cloud              KS   Trained Spotter

            Track and Field equipment blown 50 to 100
            feet from original location. Time estimated
            from radar.

&&