Tornado Warning 23, NWS Topeka, KS

383 
WWUS53 KTOP 170535
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1235 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

KSC117-131-170545-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-260517T0545Z/
Nemaha-Marshall-
1235 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 AM CDT FOR WEST
CENTRAL NEMAHA AND EAST CENTRAL MARSHALL COUNTIES...

At 1234 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 4 miles southwest of Baileyville, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Vermillion and Baileyville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3971 9638 3983 9638 3988 9617 3971 9615
TIME...MOT...LOC 0534Z 266DEG 42KT 3980 9623 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

BD

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1239 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

KSC117-131-170548-
/O.EXP.KTOP.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-260517T0545Z/
Nemaha-Marshall-
1239 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL NEMAHA AND EAST CENTRAL
MARSHALL COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1245 AM CDT...

The tornado threat has diminished and the Tornado Warning has been
cancelled. However, large hail and damaging winds remain likely and a
Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for the area.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
northeastern Kansas.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
central and eastern Marshall county and western nemaha county.  

&&

LAT...LON 3971 9638 3983 9638 3988 9617 3971 9615
TIME...MOT...LOC 0538Z 266DEG 42KT 3980 9619 

$$

BD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1215 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions will continue to provide a chance for
  thunderstorms tonight through Monday night.

- There is a risk for severe weather each day through Monday night.
  The greatest risk for severe storms including tornadoes looks to be
  Monday afternoon and Monday night.

- Much cooler weather and a break from showers and storms is forecast
  to move in Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

19Z water vapor imagery showed an upper trough over the Northern
Rockies and Pacific Northwest with southwest upper flow over the
central plains. Surface obs had an area of low pressure still over
the OK/TX panhandles with an inverted trough through central KS and
into southeast NEB. A moist and hot airmass had developed south of
this boundary with dewpoints in the middle and upper 60s.

This afternoon and tonight: There still isn't much of a shortwave to
force convection and the 18Z Topeka RAOB showed stout inhibition was
still in place. But continued heating of the moist boundary layer
into the lower 90s is expected to reduce inhibition for deep moist
convection to near zero between 5 and 7 pm. As a result convergence
along the weak boundary across far northern KS should act as a focus
for convective development. MUCAPE values are expected to be between
2500 and 4000 J/kg but 0-6km bulk shear looks to be light at 30KT or
less across much of the forecast area. This may make it difficult
for updrafts to sustain themselves pointing towards a wind threat.
Better shear to the north may support some risk for hail. CAMs have
shown some consistency with isolated storms developing north of I-70
between 6 and 8pm and lifting into NEB through the early evening.
Overnight models show an MCS forming off the high plains and
propagating east. This makes sense with a 40-50KT low level jet
feeding high theta-e air into the boundary. The question is how far
south will the MCS go. The models tend to pool the higher boundary
layer moisture along and north of the KS/NEB state line and the CAMs
seem to want to keep the bowing segment north in the deeper moisture.
But I am hesitant to buy completely into that idea with the nose of
the low level jet providing lift over north central and northeast KS.
With the 12Z ARW showing convection moving along the 36 highway
corridor, have kept some likely POPs going into the early morning
hours. By the time this moves through, straight line winds will
likely be the greatest concern.

Sunday: There is a fair bit more uncertainty in how things evolve on
Sunday with models showing various ideas. The NAM and RAP strengthen
the mid level cap while the GFS brings some cooler mid level temps
in at 700MB. An then is there any remnant outflow from tonight's
storms. With the moderately unstable airmass still in place across
the forecast area am not sure I agree with the RAP and NAM in no
convection developing off the dry line. Then again there isn't a lot
of support from the CAMs for the GFS idea. So have some 30-40
percent chance POPs for the western counties by the late afternoon.
Instability east of the dryline should be more than enough for
convective initiation, but again deep layer shear is progged to be
relatively weak. So the main concerns would be large hail and
damaging winds.

There is pretty good agreement from the models for a strengthening
pressure gradient on Sunday. The gradient looks strong enough for
sustained winds around 30 mph and gusts up to 45 mph so have gone
ahead and issued a wind advisory for much of the area.

Monday: There is good consensus in the synoptic pattern among the
models with a shortwave lifting over the triple point across central
KS by the late afternoon. With moderate to strong instability and
improving wind profiles developing, supercell storms are forecast to
form along the dryline and warm front. Discrete storms will be
capable of tornadoes but I am wondering if the forcing is strong
enough that convection fills in along the boundaries. We'll be
looking at storm modes more closely as the event starts to get into
the time frame of the CAMs. Am comfortable with the categorical POPs
from the NBM as models have been consistent for several days now with
storms along the front as it pushes east and southeast Monday night.

Tuesday and beyond: Have not made any chances to the mid-range
forecast as the NBM seems to have a reasonable handle on the overall
pattern. Surface ridging is forecast to move over the plains Tuesday
and Wednesday. This should shift POPs south of the forecast area
with noticeably cooler temperatures forecast. The 00Z guidance was a
little slower in developing return flow on the back side of the
surface ridge. The 12Z ECMWF has southerly low level flow by Friday
which should help temps warm back into the 70s and 80s for the end
of the forecast. The NBM has some slight chance POPs in the forecast
for Thursday through Saturday. It's hard to find a strong reason for
or against the slight chance POPs and there maybe some shortwave
energy impacting the central plains by the end of the forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

VFR at terminals, focusing on the cluster of severe TSRA occurring
north and west of terminals to start the forecast period. Latest
guidance continues to exhibit weakening trends with these storms and
should remain north of sites through 12Z, however will monitor
KMHK as they may be close to observing VCTS. Gusty south winds in
upwards of 40 kts return aft 13Z as residual clouds near 3 kft
clear out in the afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Record High Temperature

Sunday May 17
                 Record (Year)           Forecast
Topeka           92 (1907)               89
Concordia        96 (1996)               96

Monday May 18
                 Record (Year)           Forecast
Topeka           94 (1975)               91
Concordia        94 (1967, 1988)         91

Record Warm Low Temperature

Sunday May 17
                 Record (Year)           Forecast
Topeka           73 (1996)               69
Concordia        68 (1902, 1906)         67

Monday May 18
                 Record (Year)           Forecast
Topeka           71 (1911)               70
Concordia        72 (1911)               66

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-
KSZ024-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ058.

&&

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Prieto
CLIMATE...Drake/Wolters

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
241 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-171945-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
241 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central,
north central, and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected to develop over parts of north central
and northeast Kansas late this afternoon and move north into
Nebraska this evening. The storms will be capable of producing
damaging winds and large hail. Overnight a second round of
thunderstorms may impact areas along US highway 36. These storms
may be capable of damaging straight line winds during the early
morning hours of Sunday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Thunderstorms are possible again Sunday afternoon and Sunday
evening. If storms are able to develop they could become severe
with large hail and damaging winds the main concern. The better
chance for storms is expected to be west of a line from Council
Grove to Seneca.

The greatest chance for severe weather is still shaping up to be
Monday afternoon and Monday night. There is good confidence in
storms developing over north central KS by the early evening and
moving across all of northeast and east central Kansas through the
night. Storms will be capable of producing tornadoes, very large
hail, damaging winds and flash flooding. People should be prepared
for thunderstorms impacting the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather to the National
Weather Service in Topeka.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

Wolters

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1158 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NNW Belleville        39.84N 97.64W
05/16/2026                   Republic           KS   Storm Chaser

            A camper was flipped over in the Loves gas
            station parking lot.

&&

JP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1200 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1118 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Jamestown               39.60N 97.86W
05/16/2026                   Cloud              KS   Public

            MPing report of substantial roof damage.

&&

JP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1209 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1206 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Waterville              39.69N 96.75W
05/17/2026  E70 MPH          Marshall           KS   Emergency Mngr

            Estimated 60 to 80 mph wind gusts in
            Waterville.

&&

CP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1215 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1131 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Belleville              39.82N 97.63W
05/16/2026  E70 MPH          Republic           KS   Public

            Social media post. Also reported quarter
            size hail.

&&

CP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1216 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1131 PM     Hail             Belleville              39.82N 97.63W
05/16/2026  M1.00 Inch       Republic           KS   Public

            Social media post. Also reported 70 mph wind
            gusts.

&&

CP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1222 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1202 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 ENE Clay Center       39.38N 97.10W
05/17/2026  M63 MPH          Clay               KS   Trained Spotter

            CWOP station.

&&

JP