Tornado Warning 31, NWS Topeka, KS

949 
WWUS53 KTOP 182031
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
331 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

KSC027-029-201-182115-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0031.000000T0000Z-260518T2115Z/
Washington-Clay-Cloud-
331 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...NORTHERN CLAY AND SOUTHEASTERN CLOUD
COUNTIES...

At 331 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 6 miles north of Miltonvale, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and two inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Clay Center, Clyde, Clifton, Morganville, Green, Vining, and Idana.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3932 9741 3950 9753 3965 9735 3958 9696
      3942 9696
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 231DEG 30KT 3943 9742 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN

$$

Flanagan

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
343 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

KSC027-029-201-182052-
/O.CAN.KTOP.TO.W.0031.000000T0000Z-260518T2115Z/
Washington-Clay-Cloud-
343 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...NORTHERN CLAY
AND SOUTHEASTERN CLOUD COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However, small hail and
gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for north central
and northeastern Kansas.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for 
southern Washington, northern Clay, and northeastern Cloud Counties 
until 4:15 PM.

&&

LAT...LON 3932 9741 3950 9753 3965 9735 3958 9696
      3942 9696
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 236DEG 31KT 3949 9731 

$$

Flanagan

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
201 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms becoming numerous early to mid afternoon today
  and spreading east to southeast this evening. Very large hail,
  damaging winds, and tornadoes all quite possible.

- Flash flooding remains a concern through tonight especially where
  heavy rain fall Sunday night.

- Gusty south winds on track for the next several hours in
  southwestern areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Warm, humid airmass was surging north into central Kansas ahead of a
cold front toward a nearly-stationary front just northeast of
northeast Kansas with a modest upper wave just upstream. Instability
of 3000 J/kg already commonplace in central Kansas at 17Z with 40-50
knots of deep-layer shear. Vectors for this layer remain close to
parallel to the front so there is some uncertainty in how long
storms can remain discrete, but some backing of low-level flow and
otherwise good setup brings all severe hazards in play. Main area of
concern over the next few hours is north-central Kansas with storms
spreading east and southeast and becoming more widespread with time.
Threats should turn more to wind versus strong tornado in eastern
areas as mode shifts to more linear. Overall a more progressive
system should keep storm residence somewhat limited, but areas that
saw heavy rain Sunday night will not take much more rain to
experience flash flooding and intense updrafts with PW values around
1.5 inches will bring quick rainfall. Storms push southeast before
dawn with flash flooding threat falling off, though rivers and
creeks may be high for a few more days. Surface winds

Next few days continue to look benign with modified Canadian high
pressure in place with cooler temperatures. Moisture return in the
mid-levels supports at least moderate precipitation chances Thursday
into Thursday night but instability remains modest. A more unstable
airmass should return around the holiday weekend though forcing for
ascent is not readily apparent.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Confidence is increasing in thunderstorm potential in the 23Z-04Z
window and went ahead with TEMPO inclusion. MVFR cloud should
diminish soon but be more consistent after FROPA around 06Z with some
chance for improvement late in the forecast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-
KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-
KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-
KSZ059.
Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-
KSZ038-KSZ054.

&&

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Poage

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
138 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-191845-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
138 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
east central Kansas, north central Kansas, and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

South winds sustained around 25 MPH with gusts around 45 MPH are
forecast for locations southwest of a line from Abilene to Alma to
Emporia in to the evening.

Severe thunderstorms are expected through the middle of the
afternoon in north central Kansas. These storms may form into a
line as they move east and southeast late this afternoon and this
evening. Very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few strong
tornadoes are the main hazards.

Localized flooding is also a concern, especially if storms
persist over areas that received heavy rain Sunday night. A Flood
Watch remains in effect through 7 AM Tuesday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters will likely be needed this afternoon or tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
152 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0151 PM     Hail             3 S Jamestown           39.55N 97.86W
05/18/2026  M1.00 Inch       Cloud              KS   Public

&&

ST