Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1242 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms expected (50-90% chance) this afternoon
  into early this evening, mainly in east-central Kansas.
  Locally heavy rainfall also possible, mainly in far
  southeastern areas.

- Fire danger into elevated levels Saturday and Sunday along Highway
  81 in north-central Kansas.

- Low temperatures close to freezing Saturday and Sunday
  mornings, with frost potential Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Volatile situation setting up over eastern and southern portions of
the state this afternoon with upper low moving east along the
central Canadian border with associated trough in at least one piece
south-southwest into the Four Corners impinging on a moist and very
unstable atmosphere over the Plains. Cold front had passed through
north-central Kansas by noon, lagging a bit more to the southwest to
a surface low over northeast Oklahoma. 16Z MLCAPE analysis already
had values around 2500 J/kg with over 3000 J/kg quite possible by
mid afternoon with effective shear of 40-50 knots. Low-level wind
fields will likely keep some veering, however tornadic potential
remains with any more isolated storms early then possibly in QLCS
activity later in the event, so very large hail and potent
straight-line winds will be the main concerns. Main area of concern
looks to be east-central Kansas where instability will be the
greatest and the front come in the latest. Severe thunderstorm
activity should peak by late afternoon and exit the area by 8 PM,
though some training could linger mainly along and southeast of I-35
as the effective front becomes more parallel to the upper flow and
could lead to a few rounds of heavy rainfall into the late evening.

Concerns late tonight into Sunday turn to more of a early to mid
spring variety with fire weather and growing season impacts.
Northwest winds keep some speed Saturday but back off Sunday when
the driest air is in place. Fire weather partners indicate only
limited grassland response in the far western counties that could
still support some very active wildfires and, even going slightly
windier for Saturday, still only brings fire danger indicies into
the Very High category. These winds Saturday keep frost in check
with much weaker winds Sunday morning supporting some frost. Most
guidance keeps lows above freezing for even the coldest areas in
north-central Kansas.

Temperatures return to above normal levels early next week with the
next chance for precipition late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Thunderstorm potential is the main concern. Storms are highly
likely to be east of MHK but could form around TOP and FOE
through 22Z, but latest trends are for a faster end of storms
so trimmed them a bit. North-northwest winds behind the front
should diminish late.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Not much change to previous forecast. Saturday brings the
stronger winds but RH only dropping to around 20 percent for a
few hours. Sunday looks drier but much weaker winds. Saturday
will likely be more concerning but confidence in Red Flag
conditions remains too low for any headlines.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Poage
FIRE WEATHER...Poage

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
219 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0218 PM     Hail             Eskridge                38.86N 96.10W
04/17/2026  E0.88 Inch       Wabaunsee          KS   Trained Spotter

&&

smb

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