Severe Thunderstorm Warning 402, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
218 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Scattered strong to severe storms are expected to develop along a
 front late this afternoon/early this evening.

-Shower/storm chances linger through the night, but the severe threat
 should largely diminish after dark.

-A dramatic temperature swing occurs between today and early in the
 upcoming workweek. Below average temperatures stick around through
 the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

The main focus in the short-term is on thunderstorm chances from this
afternoon into tonight, and whether storms will reach severe
thresholds. At 18Z, a cold front was moving into north central KS. A
few agitated cu had grown tall enough to produce isolated, small
showers ahead of the boundary. SBCAPE has increased to 2000-3000 J/kg
ahead of the boundary and DCAPE is over 1000 J/kg, but deep layer
shear is less impressive at around 25 kts. This environment is
developing as expected and continues to indicate downburst wind
potential with any storms that form today. CAMs still do not show a
lot of agreement on timing and location of the more robust
convection, but thinking is that coverage of storms will increase
after 23Z with initiation likely occurring along a line extending
from near Sabetha to Manhattan to Herington. Initial updrafts could
congeal into clusters as the entire system progresses eastward across
the area this evening. Severe potential should begin to diminish in
the hours after sunset in far eastern KS as CIN increases. Most CAMs
then show another cluster of showers and storms moving into central
KS overnight in response to a shortwave ahead of a main wave aloft.
Models show those storms producing some gusty winds in central KS and
weakening with eastward extent.

Rain showers may linger into the early morning hours of Sunday with
chances decreasing after sunrise. The cold front should be south of
the area by midday tomorrow, so with low clouds and north winds,
temperatures will be noticeably cooler (following a six day stretch
of 90+ highs). Will maintain at least slight chance POPs in east-
central areas through the afternoon with rain possibly clipping the
area from the south near the stalled H85 boundary.

A cooler air mass fully settles into the area with a surface ridge
early next week. NBM has high temperatures ranging from the mid 60s
in far northern KS to the mid 70s near I-35 Monday afternoon in part
due to limited insolation from lingering cloud cover. Tuesday could
be the coolest day of the period with highs in the 60s nearly area-
wide (this is cooler than recent nighttime lows). Temperatures slowly
creep back up, but stay on the cool side of average through the
workweek. POPs return later in the week when longer range models show
the next shortwave aloft possibly impacting the region. Confidence
is not currently high on that possible round of wet weather.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

The main challenge this period is on thunderstorm chances and timing.
Storms look to develop near a cold front this evening, likely around
23Z/00Z near KMHK. However, there remains some level of uncertainty
with a lack of good agreement between high resolution models. Once
storms develop they will progress eastward and impact the Topeka
terminals late this evening. Storms could produce damaging wind gusts
and hail. Additional showers could develop later in the night, which
is also when MVFR CIGS become likely. Rain chances decrease Sunday
morning, but low stratus could linger into midday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 229 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Saturday 9/19:

              Forecast High        Record High (year)

Topeka: 96 99 (set in 2022)

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey
CLIMATE...Griesemer

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
224 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-201930-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
224 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central
Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could occur late this
afternoon and this evening. Storms are likely to develop along a cold
front located east of a line from Marysville to Minneapolis after 5
PM. Damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard but small hail and
heavy rain could also occur. Storms should weaken into the nighttime
hours in eastern Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
540 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

KSZ020-034-192330-
Cloud-Ottawa-
540 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN OTTAWA AND
SOUTHWESTERN CLOUD COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM CDT...

At 540 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southwest of Simpson, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor
         objects and vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Glasco and Delphos.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
north central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3943 9793 3948 9782 3928 9774 3927 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 247DEG 16KT 3931 9800

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Flanagan

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
547 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0531 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     6 NNE Woodbine          38.87N 96.90W
09/19/2026  M60 MPH          Dickinson          KS   Mesonet

            Kansas Mesonet site at Rock Springs gusted
            to 60 mph.

&&

DR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
547 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

KSZ035-192330-
Dickinson-
547 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT DICKINSON COUNTY THROUGH 630 PM
CDT...

At 547 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Carlton, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Strong wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects and
         vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Abilene, Herington, Solomon, Enterprise, Hope, Woodbine, and Carlton.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 267 and 281.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
central and east central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3893 9737 3896 9737 3896 9693 3861 9693
      3861 9737 3891 9737 3893 9738
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 264DEG 23KT 3878 9724

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Flanagan

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
557 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 SW Abilene            38.90N 97.24W
09/19/2026  M60 MPH          Dickinson          KS   Mesonet

            Abilene airport gusted to 60 mph.

&&

DR