Severe Thunderstorm Warning 396, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
218 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Scattered strong to severe storms are expected to develop along a
 front late this afternoon/early this evening.

-Shower/storm chances linger through the night, but the severe threat
 should largely diminish after dark.

-A dramatic temperature swing occurs between today and early in the
 upcoming workweek. Below average temperatures stick around through
 the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

The main focus in the short-term is on thunderstorm chances from this
afternoon into tonight, and whether storms will reach severe
thresholds. At 18Z, a cold front was moving into north central KS. A
few agitated cu had grown tall enough to produce isolated, small
showers ahead of the boundary. SBCAPE has increased to 2000-3000 J/kg
ahead of the boundary and DCAPE is over 1000 J/kg, but deep layer
shear is less impressive at around 25 kts. This environment is
developing as expected and continues to indicate downburst wind
potential with any storms that form today. CAMs still do not show a
lot of agreement on timing and location of the more robust
convection, but thinking is that coverage of storms will increase
after 23Z with initiation likely occurring along a line extending
from near Sabetha to Manhattan to Herington. Initial updrafts could
congeal into clusters as the entire system progresses eastward across
the area this evening. Severe potential should begin to diminish in
the hours after sunset in far eastern KS as CIN increases. Most CAMs
then show another cluster of showers and storms moving into central
KS overnight in response to a shortwave ahead of a main wave aloft.
Models show those storms producing some gusty winds in central KS and
weakening with eastward extent.

Rain showers may linger into the early morning hours of Sunday with
chances decreasing after sunrise. The cold front should be south of
the area by midday tomorrow, so with low clouds and north winds,
temperatures will be noticeably cooler (following a six day stretch
of 90+ highs). Will maintain at least slight chance POPs in east-
central areas through the afternoon with rain possibly clipping the
area from the south near the stalled H85 boundary.

A cooler air mass fully settles into the area with a surface ridge
early next week. NBM has high temperatures ranging from the mid 60s
in far northern KS to the mid 70s near I-35 Monday afternoon in part
due to limited insolation from lingering cloud cover. Tuesday could
be the coolest day of the period with highs in the 60s nearly area-
wide (this is cooler than recent nighttime lows). Temperatures slowly
creep back up, but stay on the cool side of average through the
workweek. POPs return later in the week when longer range models show
the next shortwave aloft possibly impacting the region. Confidence
is not currently high on that possible round of wet weather.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

The main challenge this period is on thunderstorm chances and timing.
Storms look to develop near a cold front this evening, likely around
23Z/00Z near KMHK. However, there remains some level of uncertainty
with a lack of good agreement between high resolution models. Once
storms develop they will progress eastward and impact the Topeka
terminals late this evening. Storms could produce damaging wind gusts
and hail. Additional showers could develop later in the night, which
is also when MVFR CIGS become likely. Rain chances decrease Sunday
morning, but low stratus could linger into midday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 229 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Saturday 9/19:

              Forecast High        Record High (year)

Topeka: 96 99 (set in 2022)

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey
CLIMATE...Griesemer

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
224 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-201930-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
224 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central
Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could occur late this
afternoon and this evening. Storms are likely to develop along a cold
front located east of a line from Marysville to Minneapolis after 5
PM. Damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard but small hail and
heavy rain could also occur. Storms should weaken into the nighttime
hours in eastern Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf