Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Great Falls, MT

908 
WGUS75 KTFX 150358
FFSTFX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
Issued by National Weather Service Missoula MT
958 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

MTC027-150530-
/O.CON.KTFX.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-260715T0530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Fergus MT-
958 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN FERGUS COUNTY...

At 958 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain have
fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 0.5 to 1.5 inches in 1 hour.
Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are possible in the warned
area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Mainly rural areas of Southeastern Fergus County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 4675 10900 4695 10902 4698 10861 4684 10861
      4684 10863 4675 10863

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...0.5-1.5 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

AM

174 
WGUS75 KTFX 150523
FFSTFX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
Issued by National Weather Service Missoula MT
1123 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

MTC027-150533-
/O.EXP.KTFX.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-260715T0530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Fergus MT-
1123 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1130 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
SOUTHEASTERN FERGUS COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 1200 AM MDT for portions of
central, north central, and southwest Montana.

&&

LAT...LON 4675 10900 4695 10902 4698 10861 4684 10861
      4684 10863 4675 10863

$$

AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
Issued by National Weather Service Missoula MT
622 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Slight risk for severe thunderstorms across portions of Central
   and North Central Montana, with the primary severe weather
   threats being hail larger than quarter size and damaging wind
   in excess of 60 mph.

 - Marginal risk for flash flooding across portions of Southwest
   through North Central, most notably along and near the the
   Montana Hwy 200 corridor.

 - Moisture circulating across the Northern Rockies and MT will
   maintain daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through
   the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued Issued by National Weather Service Missoula MT/

The Northern Rockies and MT remain on the NW periphery of an
expansive mid-upper level ridge centered on the N-central CONUS. A
plume of subtropical sourced mid-upper level moisture circulating
around the back side of the ridge will continue to deepen today
with lower level easterly flow bringing dewpoints in the 50s to
around 60 to central/north-central MT overnight. An embedded mid-
level shortwave and upper level jet disturbance lifting out of
northern CA will help to trigger and organize thunderstorm
development across SW MT this afternoon with stronger cells
tracking N/NE through central MT and eastern portions of n-central
MT this evening. The presence of deep moisture and moderate shear
will support some strong to severe thunderstorms with strong
winds and hail possible in addition to localized heavy rainfall as
storms peak in intensity early this evening.

The flow of anomalous moisture across the area looks to remain in
place through the upcoming weekend, maintaining a daily chance
for showers and thunderstorms. Cloud-cover on Wednesday will
result in temperatures closer to seasonal averages and may
inhibit instability and result in a lower coverage of
showers/storms. Differences in the timing of embedded disturbances
and the extent cloud-cover and instability leads to lower
confidence in specific details beyond Wednesday. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
15/00Z TAF Period

Tonight...main aviation concern in the short term is the potential for
scattered thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe
and pose a risk for large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall
that could lead to reductions to MVFR (perhaps briefly IFR) CIG
and VIS. Scattered storms are already near KLWT, and KHLN and KGTF
will also be at risk, particularly in the 01-04Z time frame. KBZN
and KEKS could be on the fringe of the stronger activity, and
storms may weaken some by the time they make it into KHVR later
this evening. Most terminals except KHVR should be dry by around
06Z. Late tonight, some guidance suggests some MVFR to IFR ceiling
reductions for mainly KLWT, KHVR, and KGTF. Outside of
thunderstorms, winds will go mainly light and variable after
sunset.

Wednesday...Sub-VFR ceilings may continue into mid-
morning, but expect mainly VFR by midday and through the
afternoon. Scattered showers could develop in the area of KWYS,
KEKS, and KBZN towards mid to late morning, but kept this as
PROB30s for now given uncertainties in coverage and timing.
Continued active upper flow should support scattered afternoon
convection for all but KHVR and KLWT once again Wednesday
afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to be more
limited in coverage and intensity than this evening, so kept these
as fairly generic PROB30 groups for the time being. No
significant wind speeds or directional changes expected outside of
convection.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A Flash Flood Watch remains in place for much of central MT and
adjoining areas for this afternoon and evening. High-resolution
model ensembles are in fairly good agreement focusing stronger
convection and potential for intense rainfall rates along an axis
from southern Lewis and Clark County east across the Big/Little
Belts, Judith Basin and Fergus counties where there is 50-80%
probability of 1hr rainfall rates exceeding .50" and 30-50%
probability for localized hourly rates exceeding 1". This puts the
Horse Gulch burn scar at risk for flash flooding as well as other
areas that may see these types of intense rainfall rates. Storms
are expected to have reasonably quick motion, which may help to
keep intense rainfall rates relatively brief but still impactful.
Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  59  82  59  88 /  90  50  20  20
CTB  56  79  57  83 /  50  30  30  30
HLN  62  86  62  90 /  60  60  30  30
BZN  58  86  57  91 /  40  50  40  30
WYS  52  84  49  87 /  10  30  30  10
DLN  56  85  55  89 /  20  50  30  10
HVR  60  82  58  89 /  80  50  30   0
LWT  55  79  54  85 /  90  70  40  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for Bears Paw Mountains
and Southern Blaine-Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-
Canyon Ferry Area-Cascade County below 5000ft-Elkhorn and
Boulder Mountains-Fergus County below 4500ft-Gallatin Valley-
Gates of the Mountains-Helena Valley-Judith Basin County and
Judith Gap-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Meagher County
Valleys-Missouri Headwaters-Snowy and Judith Mountains-Southern
High Plains-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass-Western and
Central Chouteau County.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
743 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 WNW Moore             46.98N 109.75W
07/14/2026  M56 MPH          Fergus             MT   Mesonet

            Mesonet station MTEDD Eddies Corner Us-191
            Mp 39.5.

&&

AM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
748 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 W Lewistown           47.06N 109.52W
07/14/2026  E58 MPH          Fergus             MT   Public

            Ambient Weather Station just north of the
            Lewistown Airport.

&&

AM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
758 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     Hail             1 N Hobson              47.01N 109.87W
07/14/2026  E2.50 Inch       Judith Basin       MT   Public

            Social media report of tennis ball sized
            hail near Hobson. Time and location is
            estimated.

&&

AM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
802 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     12 SSE Forestgrove      46.84N 108.94W
07/14/2026  M86 MPH          Fergus             MT   AWOS

            N Bar Ranch AWOS reported an 86 mph gust.
            Sustained winds of 45 mph at time of report.

&&

AM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
805 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 NW Grass Range        47.05N 108.84W
07/14/2026  E67 MPH          Fergus             MT   Public

            Ambient Weather Station just west of Grass
            Range reported a 67 mph wind gust.

&&

AM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
813 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     Hail             2 SSE Stanford          47.13N 110.20W
07/14/2026  E1.25 Inch       Judith Basin       MT   Public

            Social media report with photo of
            approximately half dollar sized hail near
            Stanford. Time and location is estimated.

&&

AM