Alert archive / Montana / Flash Flood Warnings in 2026

Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Great Falls, MT

July 14, 2026Fergus County, Montana

NWS Great Falls, MT issued this flash flood warning at Jul 14, 2026, 7:24 PM MDT for Fergus County, Montana. It was in force for 3 hr. 3 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 14, 2026, 7:24 PM MDT (01:24 UTC)
Expired: Jul 14, 2026, 10:30 PM MDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Great Falls, MT
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

County Fergus County, MT

The radar

The Great Falls radar (KTFX), 145 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 14, 7:25 PM MDT	FLASH FLOOD	Lewistown, MT	Trained spotter relayed reports of water blowing through manhole covers in Lewistown. Location estimated.
Jul 14, 7:25 PM MDT	RAIN 1.25	3 S Lewistown, MT	Trained spotter reports 1.25 inches total rain as of the report time. Peak rainfall rate was 4.17 inches per hour.
Jul 14, 7:50 PM MDT	RAIN 0.73	Lewistown, MT	0.73 inch rainfall in one hour. Mesonet station FW0639 Lewistown.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this flash flood warning; the first came 1 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Glasgow Intl Airport, MT (KGGW), launched 00:00Z, 1.4 hours before the alert went out and 252 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 2449 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 8 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 93 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

716 
WGUS55 KTFX 150124
FFWTFX
MTC027-150430-
/O.NEW.KTFX.FF.W.0003.260715T0124Z-260715T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
Issued by National Weather Service Glasgow MT
724 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

The National Weather Service in Great Falls has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Central Fergus County in central Montana...

* Until 1030 PM MDT.

* At 724 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the warned area. Up to 2 inches of rain have
  fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1 to 2 inches in 1 hour.
  Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
           highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
           drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Lewistown and Glengarry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 4718 10967 4696 10965 4698 10932 4721 10934

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...1-2 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

Glinskas

2 follow-up statements

545 
WGUS75 KTFX 150311
FFSTFX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
Issued by National Weather Service Glasgow MT
911 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

MTC027-150430-
/O.CON.KTFX.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260715T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Fergus MT-
911 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR CENTRAL FERGUS COUNTY...

At 911 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Up to 2 inches of rain have fallen.
Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are possible in the warned
area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Lewistown and Glengarry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 4718 10967 4696 10965 4698 10932 4721 10934

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Glinskas

408 
WGUS75 KTFX 150421
FFSTFX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
Issued by National Weather Service Missoula MT
1021 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

MTC027-150431-
/O.EXP.KTFX.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260715T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Fergus MT-
1021 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1030 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
CENTRAL FERGUS COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 1200 AM MDT for portions of
central, north central, and southwest Montana.

&&

LAT...LON 4718 10967 4696 10965 4698 10932 4721 10934

$$

AM

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 14, 6:22 PM MDT, 1 hour 2 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

Slight risk for severe thunderstorms across portions of Central and North Central Montana, with the primary severe weather threats being hail larger than quarter size and damaging wind in excess of 60 mph.
Marginal risk for flash flooding across portions of Southwest through North Central, most notably along and near the the Montana Hwy 200 corridor.
Moisture circulating across the Northern Rockies and MT will maintain daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through the upcoming weekend.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 14, 6:22 PM MDT, 1 hour 2 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
Issued by National Weather Service Missoula MT
622 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Slight risk for severe thunderstorms across portions of Central
   and North Central Montana, with the primary severe weather
   threats being hail larger than quarter size and damaging wind
   in excess of 60 mph.

 - Marginal risk for flash flooding across portions of Southwest
   through North Central, most notably along and near the the
   Montana Hwy 200 corridor.

 - Moisture circulating across the Northern Rockies and MT will
   maintain daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through
   the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued Issued by National Weather Service Missoula MT/

The Northern Rockies and MT remain on the NW periphery of an
expansive mid-upper level ridge centered on the N-central CONUS. A
plume of subtropical sourced mid-upper level moisture circulating
around the back side of the ridge will continue to deepen today
with lower level easterly flow bringing dewpoints in the 50s to
around 60 to central/north-central MT overnight. An embedded mid-
level shortwave and upper level jet disturbance lifting out of
northern CA will help to trigger and organize thunderstorm
development across SW MT this afternoon with stronger cells
tracking N/NE through central MT and eastern portions of n-central
MT this evening. The presence of deep moisture and moderate shear
will support some strong to severe thunderstorms with strong
winds and hail possible in addition to localized heavy rainfall as
storms peak in intensity early this evening.

The flow of anomalous moisture across the area looks to remain in
place through the upcoming weekend, maintaining a daily chance
for showers and thunderstorms. Cloud-cover on Wednesday will
result in temperatures closer to seasonal averages and may
inhibit instability and result in a lower coverage of
showers/storms. Differences in the timing of embedded disturbances
and the extent cloud-cover and instability leads to lower
confidence in specific details beyond Wednesday. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
15/00Z TAF Period

Tonight...main aviation concern in the short term is the potential for
scattered thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe
and pose a risk for large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall
that could lead to reductions to MVFR (perhaps briefly IFR) CIG
and VIS. Scattered storms are already near KLWT, and KHLN and KGTF
will also be at risk, particularly in the 01-04Z time frame. KBZN
and KEKS could be on the fringe of the stronger activity, and
storms may weaken some by the time they make it into KHVR later
this evening. Most terminals except KHVR should be dry by around
06Z. Late tonight, some guidance suggests some MVFR to IFR ceiling
reductions for mainly KLWT, KHVR, and KGTF. Outside of
thunderstorms, winds will go mainly light and variable after
sunset.

Wednesday...Sub-VFR ceilings may continue into mid-
morning, but expect mainly VFR by midday and through the
afternoon. Scattered showers could develop in the area of KWYS,
KEKS, and KBZN towards mid to late morning, but kept this as
PROB30s for now given uncertainties in coverage and timing.
Continued active upper flow should support scattered afternoon
convection for all but KHVR and KLWT once again Wednesday
afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to be more
limited in coverage and intensity than this evening, so kept these
as fairly generic PROB30 groups for the time being. No
significant wind speeds or directional changes expected outside of
convection.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A Flash Flood Watch remains in place for much of central MT and
adjoining areas for this afternoon and evening. High-resolution
model ensembles are in fairly good agreement focusing stronger
convection and potential for intense rainfall rates along an axis
from southern Lewis and Clark County east across the Big/Little
Belts, Judith Basin and Fergus counties where there is 50-80%
probability of 1hr rainfall rates exceeding .50" and 30-50%
probability for localized hourly rates exceeding 1". This puts the
Horse Gulch burn scar at risk for flash flooding as well as other
areas that may see these types of intense rainfall rates. Storms
are expected to have reasonably quick motion, which may help to
keep intense rainfall rates relatively brief but still impactful.
Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  59  82  59  88 /  90  50  20  20
CTB  56  79  57  83 /  50  30  30  30
HLN  62  86  62  90 /  60  60  30  30
BZN  58  86  57  91 /  40  50  40  30
WYS  52  84  49  87 /  10  30  30  10
DLN  56  85  55  89 /  20  50  30  10
HVR  60  82  58  89 /  80  50  30   0
LWT  55  79  54  85 /  90  70  40  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for Bears Paw Mountains
and Southern Blaine-Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-
Canyon Ferry Area-Cascade County below 5000ft-Elkhorn and
Boulder Mountains-Fergus County below 4500ft-Gallatin Valley-
Gates of the Mountains-Helena Valley-Judith Basin County and
Judith Gap-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Meagher County
Valleys-Missouri Headwaters-Snowy and Judith Mountains-Southern
High Plains-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass-Western and
Central Chouteau County.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 14, 4:19 PM MDT, 3 hours 5 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
Issued by National Weather Service Missoula MT
419 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

MTZ313-317-142300-
Judith Basin County and Judith Gap MT-
Little Belt and Highwood Mountains MT-
419 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Judith
Basin and eastern Cascade Counties through 500 PM MDT...

At 418 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 20
miles southwest of Stanford, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half-inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Windham.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4688 11059 4698 11072 4726 11037 4706 11011
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 228DEG 16KT 4697 11057

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special weather statement, Jul 14, 5:00 PM MDT, 2 hours 24 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
Issued by National Weather Service Missoula MT
500 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

MTZ313-314-317-142345-
Judith Basin County and Judith Gap MT-
Little Belt and Highwood Mountains MT-Fergus County below 4500ft MT-
500 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Judith Basin
and western Fergus Counties through 545 PM MDT...

At 459 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southwest of Stanford, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Stanford, Windham, and Benchland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4694 11041 4708 11054 4737 11019 4707 10992
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 239DEG 15KT 4705 11039

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special weather statement, Jul 14, 5:08 PM MDT, 2 hours 16 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
Issued by National Weather Service Missoula MT
508 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

MTZ310-311-314-150000-
Western and Central Chouteau County MT-
Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine MT-
Fergus County below 4500ft MT-
508 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Fergus,
southwestern Blaine and southeastern Chouteau Counties through 600 PM
MDT...

At 508 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles west of Winifred, or 35 miles north of Lewistown, moving north
at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Judith Landing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4753 10937 4746 10971 4773 10991 4782 10951
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 161DEG 10KT 4756 10962

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special weather statement, Jul 14, 5:58 PM MDT, 1 hour 26 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
Issued by National Weather Service Missoula MT
558 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

MTZ311-314-150045-
Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine MT-
Fergus County below 4500ft MT-
558 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Fergus
and south central Blaine Counties through 645 PM MDT...

At 558 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Winifred, or 38 miles north of Lewistown, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Winifred.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM MDT for
central and north central Montana.

&&

LAT...LON 4749 10932 4764 10950 4788 10909 4764 10883
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 235DEG 15KT 4761 10931

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special weather statement, Jul 14, 6:14 PM MDT, 1 hour 10 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
Issued by National Weather Service Missoula MT
614 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

MTZ317-320-321-150100-
Little Belt and Highwood Mountains MT-
Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains MT-Meagher County Valleys MT-
614 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Meagher
and south central Judith Basin Counties through 700 PM MDT...

At 614 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 19
miles southeast of White Sulphur Springs, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Martinsdale, Checkerboard, and Lennep.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM MDT for
central Montana.

&&

LAT...LON 4640 11028 4627 11050 4636 11073 4680 11052
      4671 11027
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 209DEG 29KT 4639 11056

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Special weather statement, Jul 14, 6:58 PM MDT, 26 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
Issued by National Weather Service Glasgow MT
658 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

MTZ310-311-150130-
Western and Central Chouteau County MT-
Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine MT-
658 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Chouteau County through 730 PM MDT
...

At 658 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles east of Fort Benton, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Iliad.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM MDT for
north central Montana.

&&

LAT...LON 4773 11047 4790 11056 4814 10989 4778 10975
TIME...MOT...LOC 0058Z 252DEG 44KT 4784 11039

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Glinskas

The office that day

Everything else NWS Great Falls, MT issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 14, 6:14 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Meagher	46 min
Jul 14, 6:25 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threat	TFX	Fergus, Judith Basin	50 min
Jul 14, 6:48 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Fergus	42 min
Jul 14, 6:53 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Fergus	52 min
Jul 14, 6:54 PM MDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TFX	Fergus	30 min
Jul 14, 6:58 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Chouteau	32 min
Jul 14, 7:18 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Fergus	87 min
Jul 14, 7:47 PM MDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TFX	Fergus	3 hr
Jul 14, 8:29 PM MDT	Flash Flood Warning	TFX	Fergus	3 hr
Jul 14, 8:38 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Fergus	52 min
Jul 14, 9:01 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Meagher	44 min
Jul 14, 9:49 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Meagher	41 min
Jul 15, 11:51 AM MDT	Flash Flood Watch	TFX	Broadwater, Gallatin, Lewis and Clark, Meagher	36 hr
Jul 15, 2:09 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Judith Basin	36 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Montana, 2026 Every flash flood warning in 2026

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.