Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
153 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

- There is a 30% chance for tropical development over the
  northeast Gulf over the weekend into early next week. It
  remains too early to determine specific impacts, although heavy
  rain appears likely in Florida. Please check future updates at
  hurricanes.gov as the tropical weather outlook is issued four
  times a day at 2 AM and PM and 8 AM and PM.

- There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall the next couple
  of days, mainly in our Florida counties. Do not drive through
  flooded roadways.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Minor tweaks made to the ongoing forecast this morning. Updated
the T, Td, RH, Sky and Wind grids to reflect current trends.
Otherwise, another round of strong to severe thunderstorms will
be possible later this afternoon. Additionally, all eyes remain in
the Gulf to see how the cluster of storms evolve with time. Stay
alert to changing forecasts.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Our attention is on the eastern Gulf this weekend into early next
week. A broad upper-low over the eastern Gulf will pinwheel several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms this weekend, regardless of
tropical development. As such, rain chances remain elevated through
at least Tuesday. Beyond that depends on whether a surface low is
able to form and consolidate into something tropical in the
northeastern Gulf. Temperatures will climb into the lower to middle
90s for highs in the afternoons with middle to upper 70s for lows.

As the 00Z guidance is coming in, there has been a noticeable trend
in the global models to keep the H85 and H5 vorticity over the Gulf
waters. This is somewhat thanks to the band of strong to severe
thunderstorms that raked the Forgotten Coast Friday evening. The
vorticity from that appears to help nudge the broad H5 low over the
Gulf, allowing for possible tropical development late tonight into
Sunday. As of 2 AM EDT, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has a
low 30% chance of development over the next 7 days and a low 10%
chance over the next 48 hours.

Something we'll also have to monitor is the potential for whatever
develops stalling in the northeastern Gulf. This is thanks to a
broad H5 ridge over Colorado and another one in the western
Atlantic. Meanwhile, the H5 trough is forecast to be well north over
the Great Lakes. In essence, there's not a whole lot to steer this
system one way or another as the two ridge fight for control. The
reason this is important is because areas near, and especially south
and east, the system could see the rain totals really pile up.
Either way, locally heavy rain is a concern with 1" to 3" forecast
for much of the region with higher totals of 5" or more possible,
especially for the Florida Big Bend. Even higher totals would be
possible if a tropical system were to develop and then stall over
the northeastern Gulf, which some ensembles are hinting at.

Again, we're closely monitoring things in the eastern Gulf over the
coming days. While odds are low for tropical development as of 2 AM
this morning, it would behoove everyone to regularly check back for
updates through the weekend and pay particular attention to trends
in the tropical weather outlook.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Isolated -SHRA have developed near the majority of the terminals
this aftn. Could see another aftn of strong to severe thunderstorms
with gusty winds and brief downpours /causing brief MVFR-IFR CIGS/
the main threats. Have therefore elected to insert TEMPO and
PROB30 groups to best time terminal impacts. The precip activity should
gradually decline from north to south with perhaps a few lingering
-SHRA near the southern terminals /due to a cluster of thunderstorms
lingering in the Gulf/. -SHRA/-TSRA may once again impinge on the
terminals Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, outside of thunderstorm
activity, light and variable winds will ensue with a gradual
veering to the south/southeast by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

A broad surface low will attempt to form in the eastern Gulf over
the weekend, which is being monitored for possible tropical
development. Light to moderate easterly to southeasterly winds are
forecast through the weekend. If a system does develop, wind speeds
and seas could increase considerably over what is indicated in the
forecast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast over the
weekend into early next week and should limit fire weather
concerns through at least Tuesday. Good to excellent dispersions
are forecast across for our central timezone districts today.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are forecast to pinwheel
around a broad area of low pressure in the eastern Gulf, regardless
of tropical development. Precipitable water values (PWATs) in excess
of 2" means any showers and storms over the weekend could easily
produce a quick 1" to 2" of rain with each storm. All told, 1" to 3"
of rain is forecast across much of the area, with locally higher
amounts exceeding 5" possible, especially across the Florida Big
Bend. As such, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) maintains a
Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall through at least
Tuesday.

Rivers from the Aucilla River eastward are relatively low, and with
the latest rainfall forecast, amounts are not sufficient to lead to
river flooding. From the Ochlockonee River Basin westward, rivers
are more susceptible to flooding, should significant rainfall
occur.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   93  74  91  74 /  60  30  50  30
Panama City   93  76  91  76 /  70  60  50  30
Dothan        94  73  92  73 /  50  50  50  30
Albany        94  73  93  74 /  50  40  50  20
Valdosta      94  73  92  73 /  50  10  30  10
Cross City    93  73  90  73 /  30  40  60  60
Apalachicola  89  77  88  77 /  60  50  60  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Bowser
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...Reese

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
145 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

ALZ066-067-181930-
Dale AL-Henry AL-
145 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT DALE AND HENRY COUNTIES THROUGH
230 PM CDT...

At 145 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Eufaula to near Texasville to near
Brundidge. Movement was south at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Daleville, Abbeville, Fort Gaines, Headland, Fort Rucker, Ozark,
Enterprise, Midland City, Level Plains, Newton, Ariton, Pinckard,
Kinsey, Grimes, Newville, Napier Field, Haleburg, Shorterville, Hunt
Field, and Waterford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Tallahassee.

&&

LAT...LON 3176 8513 3170 8513 3162 8506 3157 8506
      3154 8504 3147 8507 3143 8507 3134 8509
      3131 8517 3131 8542 3129 8542 3129 8548
      3127 8549 3128 8579 3162 8579 3162 8542
      3170 8542 3170 8522 3174 8520 3177 8516
TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 343DEG 24KT 3184 8516 3165 8541 3169 8575

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

11-MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
257 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

FLZ014-015-115-326-426-181945-
Inland Franklin FL-Southern Liberty FL-Northern Liberty FL-
Inland Gulf FL-Coastal Franklin FL-
257 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN GULF...SOUTHERN
LIBERTY AND NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT/245 PM
CDT/...

At 257 PM EDT/157 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 13 miles southeast of Wewahitchka, or 18 miles north of
Apalachicola. The strong thunderstorm is nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
White City, East Camp, Buck Siding, Vilas, Jensen Place, Central
City, Beverly, Owens Bridge, Poplar Camp, Kern, Wilma, Sumatra,
Howard Creek, Willis Landing, Nixon Garden, Twin Pole, Dalkeith, and
Fort Gadsden.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2988 8520 2988 8521 2992 8529 3016 8511
      3029 8490 3012 8468 2978 8502
TIME...MOT...LOC 1857Z 051DEG 3KT 2999 8501

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

11-MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
323 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

FLZ012-014-112-114-182015-
Coastal Bay FL-Inland Bay FL-Inland Gulf FL-Coastal Gulf FL-
323 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN GULF AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAY COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT/315 PM CDT/...

At 323 PM EDT/223 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from Callaway to near Mexico
Beach. Movement was south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Panama City, Lynn Haven, Callaway, Springfield, Mexico Beach, Hiland
Park, Tyndall Air Force Base, Parker, Allanton, Cedar Grove, Dirego
Park, Beacon Beach, Bay Harbor, St Joseph State Park, College
Station, Bayou George, Overstreet, Davis Beach, Brannonville, and
Millville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2972 8541 2979 8549 2988 8549 3005 8576
      3030 8557 3021 8539 3020 8539 3020 8536
      2999 8525
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 009DEG 7KT 3015 8557 2998 8541

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

11-MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
341 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

FLZ015-017-027-326-426-182030-
Inland Franklin FL-Southern Liberty FL-Northern Liberty FL-
Inland Wakulla FL-Leon FL-
341 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN WAKULLA...LIBERTY...
SOUTHWESTERN LEON AND NORTH CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM
EDT...

At 341 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 16 miles south of Greensboro to 11 miles
southeast of Wewahitchka. These storms were nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Orange, Telogia, East Camp, Jewel Fire Tower, Morgan Place, Vilas,
Jensen Place, Central City, Red Hill, Clio, Owens Bridge, Smith
Creek, Poplar Camp, Kern, Wilma, Lewis, Sumatra, Nixon Garden,
Bloxham, and Twin Pole.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2995 8503 2996 8502 2999 8503 3001 8510
      3004 8514 3008 8514 3009 8515 3011 8515
      3012 8513 3013 8514 3014 8513 3017 8514
      3021 8512 3041 8475 3040 8468 3039 8468
      3040 8463 3037 8437 2991 8484
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 057DEG 2KT 3033 8468 3004 8501

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

11-MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
242 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

ALZ065-182030-
Coffee AL-
242 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN COFFEE COUNTY
THROUGH 330 PM CDT...

At 242 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southwest of Brundidge, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Elba, Enterprise, Fort Rucker, New Brockton, Java, Chestnut Grove,
Richburg, Mixons Crossroads, Victoria, Frisco, Eanon, Lowry Mill,
Wilkinstown, Camp Humming Hills, Clintonville, Wise Mill, Shell Army
Field, Roeton, Tabernacle, and Camp Alaflo Bsa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Tallahassee.

&&

LAT...LON 3162 8604 3162 8581 3135 8581 3137 8609
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 002DEG 15KT 3161 8593

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

11-MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
421 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

FLZ012>017-027-112-114-115-326-426-182100-
Coastal Bay FL-Inland Franklin FL-Gadsden FL-Southern Liberty FL-
Inland Bay FL-Calhoun FL-Northern Liberty FL-Inland Gulf FL-
Coastal Franklin FL-Inland Wakulla FL-Coastal Gulf FL-Leon FL-
421 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT GULF...BAY AND CALHOUN COUNTIES
IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...NORTHWESTERN WAKULLA...GADSDEN...
LIBERTY...CENTRAL LEON AND NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN BIG BEND
FLORIDA THROUGH 500 PM EDT/400 PM CDT/...

At 420 PM EDT/320 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Lynn Haven to 20 miles
west of Crawfordville. Movement was southwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Tallahassee, Panama City, Lynn Haven, Panama City Beach, Callaway,
Tallahassee State College, Apalachicola, Quincy, Havana, Blountstown,
Midway, Port St. Joe, Springfield, Mexico Beach, Hiland Park,
Stonemill Creek, Doak Campbell Stadium, Chattahoochee, Greensboro,
and Tyndall Air Force Base.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2999 8567 3014 8593 3044 8564 3044 8549
      3057 8549 3057 8518 3061 8517 3061 8493
      3070 8486 3071 8486 3068 8426 3044 8430
      2969 8496
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 038DEG 9KT 3029 8562 3019 8470

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

11-MM