Severe Thunderstorm Warning 233, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
715 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 714 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

- There is a 30% chance for tropical development over the
  northeast Gulf over the weekend into early next week. It
  remains too early to determine specific impacts, although heavy
  rain appears likely in Florida. Please check future updates at
  hurricanes.gov as the tropical weather outlook is issued four
  times a day at 2 AM and PM and 8 AM and PM.

- There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall the next couple
  of days, mainly in our Florida counties. Do not drive through
  flooded roadways.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(This Evening through next Friday)
Issued at 431 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop or
track into the forecast area from the north this evening and into
the overnight hours. Storm coverage has initialized area wide as a
boundary of comparatively dry air pushes in from the east. Currently
a half inch difference with this boundary can be seen over the eastern
most portions of the forecast area on satellite derived PWAT. This
will potentially be an inhibitor, reinforcing the model guidance of
activity eventually being focused in our western half. That said,
this could also be a potential source of increased dcape along or
east of the boundary. West of the dry air, PWATS of 2 inches or more
will make for continued efficient rainmakers, with training storms
creating some localized flooding concerns.

Additional storm coverage is expected tomorrow as morning shower and
thunderstorm activity over the gulf associated with invest 91L
begin to make their way onshore. That brings us to the elephant in
the room, the uncertainty around invest 91L. Models do an inherently
bad job of predicting these kinds of things before a closed low has
actually formed, so there is a large amount of uncertainty based on
if and where the circulation actually forms. Current guidance has
shifted things forming a little south and west compared to yesterday
with a general northwestward-ish movement, and a very large
differences from model to model. Our biggest impacts at the moment
will continue to be rounds of high rain rate showers and storms,
leading to some possible flooding concerns, at least for the
immediate future. A flight into 91L is scheduled for tomorrow
afternoon to get a more detailed picture. Currently, NHC has a 30%
chance for this becoming a tropical system within the next 48 hours.
Even if 91L isn't named we can still expect periods of heavy rain
with localized flooding and some potentially gusty winds.

Looking past 91L, the overall picture remains high pressure over
the midwest and troughing over the northeast, with some shortwaves
dragging potential frontal boundaries and forcing mechanisms with
them through the mean flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 714 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact the ECP and ABY
terminals this evening. Gusty winds and frequent lightning will
be the main impacts. Overnight, storms should diminish. There is a
PROB30 group for the DHN terminal for a chance of pre-dawn
thunderstorms. Otherwise, light to calm winds with VFR cigs.
During the afternoon on Sunday, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop again, affecting mainly our western terminals
with another round of strong to damaging wind gusts and frequent
lightning. Outside of thunderstorms, VFR cigs will prevail with
light south/southeasterly winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 431 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

A broad surface low will attempt to form in the eastern Gulf over
this weekend, which is being monitored for possible tropical
development as invest 91L. Light to moderate easterly to
southeasterly winds are forecast through the weekend, with a
considerable uptick in winds and wave heights to start the work
week, though still greatly dependent on the positioning and
formation of 91L.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast over the
weekend into early next week and should limit fire weather
concerns through at least Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 431 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are forecast to pinwheel
around a broad area of low pressure in the eastern Gulf, regardless
of tropical development. Precipitable water values (PWATs) in excess
of 2" means any showers and storms over the weekend could easily
produce a quick 1" to 2" of rain with each storm. All told, 1" to 3"
of rain is forecast across much of the area, with locally higher
amounts exceeding 5" possible, especially across the Florida Big
Bend. As such, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) maintains a
Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall through at least
Tuesday.

Rivers from the Aucilla River eastward are relatively low, and with
the latest rainfall forecast, amounts are not sufficient to lead to
river flooding. From the Ochlockonee River Basin westward, rivers
are more susceptible to flooding, should significant rainfall
occur.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   74  90  74  89 /  30  50  50  90
Panama City   75  91  75  90 /  60  50  40  90
Dothan        73  91  73  91 /  70  50  20  70
Albany        73  93  73  92 /  50  30  10  60
Valdosta      73  93  74  91 /  20  20  20  70
Cross City    73  90  73  90 /  30  50  70  90
Apalachicola  76  87  77  87 /  40  60  80  90

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Humphreys
LONG TERM....Humphreys
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys
HYDROLOGY...Humphreys

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
717 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Westville               30.77N 85.86W
07/18/2026                   Holmes             FL   911 Call Center

            The Holmes County 911 call center reported
            several trees down in and around Westville.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
722 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

GAZ120-122-124-126-190000-
Quitman GA-Randolph GA-Lee GA-Terrell GA-
722 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT RANDOLPH...LEE...EASTERN QUITMAN
AND TERRELL COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM EDT...

At 722 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Leesburg, moving northwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Leesburg, Cuthbert, Albany, Shellman, Smithville, Bronwood, Parrott,
Chokee, Stocks, Randolph Co A/p, Aycock Mill, Chambliss, Olivers
Mill, Morris, Neyami, Martins Crossroads, Benevolence, Springvale,
Wades, and Springvale Station.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3194 8495 3192 8491 3192 8445 3196 8444
      3187 8434 3192 8434 3191 8392 3186 8393
      3180 8398 3180 8401 3176 8399 3172 8403
      3169 8402 3162 8406 3181 8446 3163 8453
      3166 8493 3168 8495 3197 8496
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 119DEG 10KT 3176 8420

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

11-MM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
733 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 WNW Concord           30.67N 84.38W
07/18/2026                   Gadsden            FL   911 Call Center

            Gadsden County 911 call center reported a
            few downed trees along McNair Road.

&&