Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
953 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 953 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

- There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather today across
  southeastern Alabama, southwestern Georgia, and the Florida
  Panhandle and western Big Bend. Damaging winds are the primary
  concern, although a tornado or two and some hail are also
  possible.

- Beneficial rain is on the way the next several days. Chances of
  1.0" or more of rain are highest (60% to 80%) north and west of
  a line from Panama City, FL to Tifton, GA and taper off to less
  than 1% in the Southeast Florida Big Bend.

- Patchy fog is possible again this morning. Be sure to give
  plenty of space between you and the car in front of you if you
  encounter any.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Adjusted PoPs for today to hopefully accurately show the trend
for today. Otherwise, no further updates appeared necessary.
Showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, are expected
through the day for the region except the SE FL Big Bend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 216 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

There is a Slight Rick (Level 2 of 5) of severe weather today across
southeastern Alabama, southwestern Georgia, and the Florida
Panhandle and western Big Bend. Damaging winds are the primary
concern, but a tornado or two and some hail cannot be ruled out. Dew
points have jumped into the upper 60s to lower 70s in advance of
this line with 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE and 40+ knots of 0-6km Bulk
Shear. Add in the 35-40 knot low-level jet moving east and this
supports the potential for bowing line segments and/or supercell
structures.

Another thing to monitor is the flooding potential. Yes, we're in a
drought, but some of the CAM guidance continues to paint a swath of
2" to 4" with locally higher rainfall totals across portions of our
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia counties. If this rain
were to fall over urban or poor-drainage areas, it could lead to
localized flooding issues.

The line is forecast to slow to a crawl and weaken some as it tries
to enter the southeastern Florida Big Bend later this afternoon. It
weakens because the better upper-level support is quickly exiting to
the northeast and the low-level jet is pushing east a decent clip.
Add in somewhat limited instability and abundant cloud cover and the
line is forecast to weaken as it pushes southeast. Still, locally
heavy rain and gusty winds will remain a concern as precipitable
water values (PWATs) are forecast to remain over 1.7" today with
the flow nearly parallel to the front. Unfortunately, the rain
mostly fizzles out before clearing the southeastern Florida Big
Bend.

The cold front is now forecast to push into the northeastern Gulf,
allowing for drier conditions to prevail later tonight. Temperatures
this afternoon will vary from the upper 70s to near 80 across our
northern Georgia and Alabama counties to the upper 80s to near 90
across the Florida Big Bend and south-central Georgia counties. Lows
take a dip into the upper 50s to lower 60s across our northern
counties and remain in the middle to upper 60s across our Florida
counties.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 216 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Thursday's cold front is now forecast to sag a little more south
than originally thought, which lowers Friday morning's rain
chances slightly. The stalled front is forecast to ebb north later
Friday afternoon into Saturday morning, allowing a wave of rain
to roll along it Friday night into Saturday morning. Yet another
wave of rain is forecast Sunday before a cold front scours out the
moisture and rain chances on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 710 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

A squall line of showers and thunderstorms will slowly sink south
through the day, affecting all TAF sites through the afternoon.
The storms will be capable of damaging wind gusts. Heavy rainfall,
frequent lightning, and even small hail will be possible. Flight
conditions are expected to be degraded during storms with lowered
vsbys in heavier storms. MVFR/IFR cigs are ongoing and expected to
continue through the day before returning to VFR later this
evening. Outside of storms, it will be breezy with gusts up to 25
kts with winds shifting to northerly following the frontal passage
later this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 216 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Light to moderate southwesterly breezes today ahead of a cold front
will clock around to the north to northeast Friday as the cold front
stalls just south of our waters. Southerly to southwesterly breezes
return over the weekend as the stalled front lifts north as a warm
front. Showers and storms are forecast more often than not through
the weekend. Seas will generally run between 1 to 3 feet through the
weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 216 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

The main fire weather concerns today will come across the
Southeastern Florida Big Bend. High dispersions, warm temperatures,
and very dry fuels will lead to elevated to critical fire weather
conditions across Lafayette, inland Taylor, and inland Dixie
counties today. Additionally frequent gusts of 20 to 30 mph are
possible across these areas ahead of the front. There is a low, 10
percent, chance those areas experience MinRH less than 35 percent
later this morning into the early afternoon before recovering above
50 percent. Additional fire weather concerns are possible Friday,
but dispersions should be lower thanks to more clouds and lower
winds Friday afternoon.

Elsewhere, a cold front will approach the area with a line of
showers and storms moving from northwest to southeast across the
region through the morning and afternoon. A wetting rain is forecast
for most of the area outside of the southeastern Florida Big Bend as
the line is forecast to dissipate as it nears those districts. Light
and variable winds combined with ample clouds and developing rain
will lead to pockets of low dispersions Friday afternoon. Additional
rain chances are possible Friday into early next week as the front
stalls but amounts still remain somewhat uncertain and dependent on
where the fronts stalls out.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 216 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

While no significant flooding is anticipated the next several days,
localized flooding is possible today should any of the higher
rainfall totals verify, especially over more urban or low-lying
areas.

Beneficial rain arrives today as a line of showers and storms moves
through most of the area. Precipitable Water Values (PWATs) in
excess of 1.7" and flow parallel to a cold front will lead to the
potential of 1.0" or more of rain. The most likely locations for
that stretch from the Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia.
There's also a 20% to 40% chance of rain totals exceeding 2.0",
especially across southeastern Alabama into southwestern Georgia
west of the Flint River. However, those in the southeastern Florida
Big Bend aren't expected to get much rain, generally less than 0.10"
That's just from today's rain.

Additional rain chances are in the forecast Friday afternoon and
again Saturday and Sunday. This is thanks to the cold front stalling
in the northeastern Gulf later tonight. It'll inch north Friday
afternoon, providing that chance for rain. Another wave of rain is
forecast to slide through the area Saturday morning into the early
afternoon Saturday and another one on Sunday. All told, rainfall
totals are forecast to be between 1.0" to 3.0" along and north of I-
10. Meanwhile, the parched southeastern Florida Big Bend will
struggle to see more than 0.25" to 0.50" of rain.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the
office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   89  66  84  66 /  50  10  30  30
Panama City   82  67  81  68 /  50  10  40  30
Dothan        81  61  76  62 /  80  10  20  50
Albany        82  60  77  62 /  90  10   0  40
Valdosta      88  64  82  64 /  60  20  10  30
Cross City    87  70  89  68 /  10  10  10  10
Apalachicola  82  70  79  69 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...Reese

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
651 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

ALZ068-071230-
Geneva AL-
651 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT GENEVA COUNTY THROUGH 730 AM
CDT...

At 651 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near New Brockton to 10 miles north of
Lockhart. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Geneva, Hartford, Slocomb, Samson, Malvern, Coffee Springs, Black,
Chancellor, Kellys Crossroads, Lytle, Marl, Logan Field Municipal
A/P, Geneva Municipal A/P, Hendrix Crossroad, Light, Somerset,
Earlytown, Hacoda, Spears, and Pera.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 AM CDT for southeastern
Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8613 3118 8612 3119 8611 3120 8599
      3120 8549 3100 8549 3100 8619 3119 8619
TIME...MOT...LOC 1151Z 284DEG 33KT 3131 8594 3115 8640

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

42-DVD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
800 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

ALZ068-FLZ007-009-071400-
Geneva AL-Holmes FL-North Walton FL-
800 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN GENEVA...NORTHWESTERN
WALTON AND HOLMES COUNTIES THROUGH 900 AM CDT...

At 800 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Laurel Hill, or 8 miles southwest of Florala, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Geneva, De Funiak Springs, Union, Liberty, Paxton, Ponce De Leon,
Caryville, Westville, Black, Pond Creek, Cluster Springs, Gaskin,
Cerrogordo, Darlington, Gritney, Arrant Settlement, Geneva Municipal
A/P, Glendale, Center Ridge, and Smith Crossroads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 PM CDT for southeastern
Alabama...and the Panhandle of Florida.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8639 3099 8619 3105 8619 3107 8562
      3079 8578 3079 8582 3078 8583 3074 8583
      3071 8584 3078 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 1300Z 278DEG 38KT 3094 8644

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

11-MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
924 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

GAZ143>146-155>158-071430-
Miller GA-Decatur GA-Colquitt GA-Baker GA-Mitchell GA-Seminole GA-
Grady GA-Thomas GA-
924 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN DECATUR...NORTHERN
GRADY...MILLER...MITCHELL...SOUTHWESTERN BAKER...NORTHWESTERN
THOMAS...NORTHERN SEMINOLE AND NORTHWESTERN COLQUITT COUNTIES THROUGH
1030 AM EDT...

At 923 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Newton to near Donalsonville. Movement was
east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Colquitt, Newton, Donalsonville, Pelham, Camilla, Bainbridge,
Moultrie, Doerun, Schley, Funston, Sale City, Iron City, Brinson,
Capel, Harrells Still, Donaldsonville A/P, Greenough, Bellview, Vada,
and Akridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 PM EDT for the Panhandle
of Florida...and south central and southwestern Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3133 8364 3092 8415 3095 8498 3097 8499
      3107 8501 3107 8492 3115 8492 3130 8454
      3134 8422
TIME...MOT...LOC 1323Z 267DEG 45KT 3124 8438 3101 8493

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

11-MM

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
951 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 WSW Phillips Crossroa 31.61N 85.63W
05/07/2026                   Dale               AL   911 Call Center

            Report of a tree down near CR 113 and CR72.

&&

rh

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
956 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0824 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NNE Geneva Municipal  31.08N 85.85W
05/07/2026                   Geneva             AL   Public

            Report of powerlines down near AL 85 and
            East Neva Drive in RD.

&&

rh