Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
711 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 710 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

- There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather today across
  southeastern Alabama, southwestern Georgia, and the Florida
  Panhandle and western Big Bend. Damaging winds are the primary
  concern, although a tornado or two and some hail are also
  possible.

- Beneficial rain is on the way the next several days. Chances of
  1.0" or more of rain are highest (60% to 80%) north and west of
  a line from Panama City, FL to Tifton, GA and taper off to less
  than 1% in the Southeast Florida Big Bend.

- Patchy fog is possible again this morning. Be sure to give
  plenty of space between you and the car in front of you if you
  encounter any.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 216 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

There is a Slight Rick (Level 2 of 5) of severe weather today across
southeastern Alabama, southwestern Georgia, and the Florida
Panhandle and western Big Bend. Damaging winds are the primary
concern, but a tornado or two and some hail cannot be ruled out. Dew
points have jumped into the upper 60s to lower 70s in advance of
this line with 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE and 40+ knots of 0-6km Bulk
Shear. Add in the 35-40 knot low-level jet moving east and this
supports the potential for bowing line segments and/or supercell
structures.

Another thing to monitor is the flooding potential. Yes, we're in a
drought, but some of the CAM guidance continues to paint a swath of
2" to 4" with locally higher rainfall totals across portions of our
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia counties. If this rain
were to fall over urban or poor-drainage areas, it could lead to
localized flooding issues.

The line is forecast to slow to a crawl and weaken some as it tries
to enter the southeastern Florida Big Bend later this afternoon. It
weakens because the better upper-level support is quickly exiting to
the northeast and the low-level jet is pushing east a decent clip.
Add in somewhat limited instability and abundant cloud cover and the
line is forecast to weaken as it pushes southeast. Still, locally
heavy rain and gusty winds will remain a concern as precipitable
water values (PWATs) are forecast to remain over 1.7" today with
the flow nearly parallel to the front. Unfortunately, the rain
mostly fizzles out before clearing the southeastern Florida Big
Bend.

The cold front is now forecast to push into the northeastern Gulf,
allowing for drier conditions to prevail later tonight. Temperatures
this afternoon will vary from the upper 70s to near 80 across our
northern Georgia and Alabama counties to the upper 80s to near 90
across the Florida Big Bend and south-central Georgia counties. Lows
take a dip into the upper 50s to lower 60s across our northern
counties and remain in the middle to upper 60s across our Florida
counties.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 216 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Thursday's cold front is now forecast to sag a little more south
than originally thought, which lowers Friday morning's rain
chances slightly. The stalled front is forecast to ebb north later
Friday afternoon into Saturday morning, allowing a wave of rain
to roll along it Friday night into Saturday morning. Yet another
wave of rain is forecast Sunday before a cold front scours out the
moisture and rain chances on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 710 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

A squall line of showers and thunderstorms will slowly sink south
through the day, affecting all TAF sites through the afternoon.
The storms will be capable of damaging wind gusts. Heavy rainfall,
frequent lightning, and even small hail will be possible. Flight
conditions are expected to be degraded during storms with lowered
vsbys in heavier storms. MVFR/IFR cigs are ongoing and expected to
continue through the day before returning to VFR later this
evening. Outside of storms, it will be breezy with gusts up to 25
kts with winds shifting to northerly following the frontal passage
later this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 216 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Light to moderate southwesterly breezes today ahead of a cold front
will clock around to the north to northeast Friday as the cold front
stalls just south of our waters. Southerly to southwesterly breezes
return over the weekend as the stalled front lifts north as a warm
front. Showers and storms are forecast more often than not through
the weekend. Seas will generally run between 1 to 3 feet through the
weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 216 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

The main fire weather concerns today will come across the
Southeastern Florida Big Bend. High dispersions, warm temperatures,
and very dry fuels will lead to elevated to critical fire weather
conditions across Lafayette, inland Taylor, and inland Dixie
counties today. Additionally frequent gusts of 20 to 30 mph are
possible across these areas ahead of the front. There is a low, 10
percent, chance those areas experience MinRH less than 35 percent
later this morning into the early afternoon before recovering above
50 percent. Additional fire weather concerns are possible Friday,
but dispersions should be lower thanks to more clouds and lower
winds Friday afternoon.

Elsewhere, a cold front will approach the area with a line of
showers and storms moving from northwest to southeast across the
region through the morning and afternoon. A wetting rain is forecast
for most of the area outside of the southeastern Florida Big Bend as
the line is forecast to dissipate as it nears those districts. Light
and variable winds combined with ample clouds and developing rain
will lead to pockets of low dispersions Friday afternoon. Additional
rain chances are possible Friday into early next week as the front
stalls but amounts still remain somewhat uncertain and dependent on
where the fronts stalls out.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 216 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

While no significant flooding is anticipated the next several days,
localized flooding is possible today should any of the higher
rainfall totals verify, especially over more urban or low-lying
areas.

Beneficial rain arrives today as a line of showers and storms moves
through most of the area. Precipitable Water Values (PWATs) in
excess of 1.7" and flow parallel to a cold front will lead to the
potential of 1.0" or more of rain. The most likely locations for
that stretch from the Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia.
There's also a 20% to 40% chance of rain totals exceeding 2.0",
especially across southeastern Alabama into southwestern Georgia
west of the Flint River. However, those in the southeastern Florida
Big Bend aren't expected to get much rain, generally less than 0.10"
That's just from today's rain.

Additional rain chances are in the forecast Friday afternoon and
again Saturday and Sunday. This is thanks to the cold front stalling
in the northeastern Gulf later tonight. It'll inch north Friday
afternoon, providing that chance for rain. Another wave of rain is
forecast to slide through the area Saturday morning into the early
afternoon Saturday and another one on Sunday. All told, rainfall
totals are forecast to be between 1.0" to 3.0" along and north of I-
10. Meanwhile, the parched southeastern Florida Big Bend will
struggle to see more than 0.25" to 0.50" of rain.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   89  66  84  66 /  40  10  30  30
Panama City   81  67  81  68 /  50  10  40  30
Dothan        81  61  76  62 /  80  10  20  50
Albany        81  60  77  62 /  80  10   0  40
Valdosta      87  64  82  64 /  50  20  10  30
Cross City    86  70  89  68 /  10  10  10  10
Apalachicola  81  70  79  69 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...Reese

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
426 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

ALZ066-071000-
Dale AL-
426 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL DALE COUNTY THROUGH 500
AM CDT...

At 426 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Fort Rucker, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Rucker, Ozark, Enterprise, Midland City, Newton, Pinckard, Bells
Crossroads, Hunt Field, Waterford, Dill, Hooper Stage Field, Mabson,
Snells Crossroads, Ewell, Dale County Lake, Marley Hill, Sylvan
Grove, Echo, Dean Church Road, and Bagwells Crossroads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 AM CDT for southeastern
Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3133 8542 3134 8579 3150 8579 3157 8542
TIME...MOT...LOC 0926Z 264DEG 38KT 3142 8572

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

42-DVD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
448 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

ALZ067-071015-
Henry AL-
448 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT HENRY COUNTY THROUGH 515 AM
CDT...

At 448 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Abbeville, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Abbeville, Newville, Haleburg, Shorterville, Walter F. George Lock
And Dam, Tumbleton, Kirkland Crossroads, Hayes, Scottsboro
Crossroads, Double Bridges, Graball, Dancey, Thomas Mill Creek,
Balkum, Barnes, Hardwickburg, Blackwood, Capps, Otho, and Murphy
Station.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 AM CDT for southeastern
Alabama...and southwestern Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3173 8512 3170 8513 3166 8508 3164 8509
      3162 8506 3157 8506 3154 8504 3147 8507
      3143 8507 3143 8508 3140 8508 3138 8542
      3163 8542
TIME...MOT...LOC 0948Z 264DEG 49KT 3149 8532

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

42-DVD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
511 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

ALZ065-071045-
Coffee AL-
511 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN COFFEE COUNTY THROUGH
545 AM CDT...

At 511 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Brantley, or 9 miles north of Elba, moving east at 55
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Rucker, Lee, Pine Level, Java, Chestnut Grove, Mixons
Crossroads, Victoria, Frisco, Eanon, Wilkinstown, Zoar, Lowry Mill,
Newby, Camp Humming Hills, Roeton, Wise Mill, Tabernacle, Clowers
Crossroads, Arcus, and Bluff Spring.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 AM CDT for southeastern
Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3153 8619 3153 8616 3154 8616 3154 8614
      3162 8615 3162 8579 3144 8579 3146 8620
TIME...MOT...LOC 1011Z 264DEG 49KT 3155 8613

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

42-DVD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
538 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

ALZ066-071115-
Dale AL-
538 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN DALE COUNTY THROUGH 615
AM CDT...

At 538 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Ariton, or 9 miles southwest of Clio, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ozark, Fort Rucker, Ariton, Bells Crossroads, Greater Salem Church,
Skipperville, Echo, Dill, Roberts Crossroads, Rocky Head, Mabson,
Arguta, Snells Crossroads, Barefield Crossroads, Beamon, Dale County
Lake, Clopton, Marley Hill, Phillips Crossroads, and Dillard.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 AM CDT for southeastern
Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3162 8542 3147 8542 3146 8579 3162 8579
TIME...MOT...LOC 1038Z 264DEG 49KT 3159 8570

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

42-DVD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
551 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

ALZ065-071145-
Coffee AL-
551 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT COFFEE COUNTY THROUGH 645 AM
CDT...

At 551 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles southeast of Goshen to near Gantt.
Movement was east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Elba, Enterprise, Fort Rucker, New Brockton, Lee, Pine Level, Mixons
Crossroads, Curtis, Carl Folsom A/p, Lowry Mill, Camp Humming Hills,
Clintonville, Roeton, Wise Mill, Clowers Crossroads, Camp Alaflo Bsa,
Basin, Arcus, Woodland Grove Church, and Jack.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 AM CDT for southeastern
Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3153 8619 3153 8616 3154 8616 3154 8614
      3159 8614 3162 8615 3162 8579 3132 8579
      3132 8620 3142 8620
TIME...MOT...LOC 1051Z 274DEG 43KT 3162 8602 3144 8643

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

42-DVD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
651 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

ALZ068-071230-
Geneva AL-
651 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT GENEVA COUNTY THROUGH 730 AM
CDT...

At 651 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near New Brockton to 10 miles north of
Lockhart. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Geneva, Hartford, Slocomb, Samson, Malvern, Coffee Springs, Black,
Chancellor, Kellys Crossroads, Lytle, Marl, Logan Field Municipal
A/P, Geneva Municipal A/P, Hendrix Crossroad, Light, Somerset,
Earlytown, Hacoda, Spears, and Pera.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 AM CDT for southeastern
Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8613 3118 8612 3119 8611 3120 8599
      3120 8549 3100 8549 3100 8619 3119 8619
TIME...MOT...LOC 1151Z 284DEG 33KT 3131 8594 3115 8640

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

42-DVD