Severe Thunderstorm Warning 361, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
753 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 752 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

- Thunderstorms through Monday will be strong to possibly severe.
  Isolated damaging wind gusts are the main concern, though
  nuisance flooding, lightning and small hail are also expected.
  There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms
  through tonight.

- There is a medium chance (50 percent) of dangerous heat index
  values exceeding 107 degrees on Monday afternoon mainly over the
  Florida Panhandle and Western Big Bend into Southeast Alabama.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 158 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms this evening
into early tonight across portions of Southeast AL, Southwest GA,
and the FL Panhandle and Big Bend generally north of I-10. While
some convection will fire up with the seabreeze in the FL counties,
the main show will be additional convection associated with a short
wave propagating Southwestward into the region from the Northeast,
centered on late this evening into early tonight. Increasing DCAPE
will support isolated damaging wind gusts of 50-60 mph while cold
air aloft may allow for some small hail (less than 1 inch). As the
convection moves toward the Gulf Coast after midnight, expect it
to weaken as CIN increases, although wind gusts to 40 mph would
pose a hazard to mariners. Will also have to watch for flooding
potential, which is highest in the I-75 corridor of GA. Patchy
fog is likely by late tonight.

Monday, afternoon and evening convection will be most prolific
in the FL Panhandle and Big Bend, with less coverage Northwest.
Not as much support for severe weather with elevated DCAPE still
supporting gusty winds to 40 mph with storms. Highs in the low
90s and dew points in the mid-70s will support heat indices in
the 105-109F range mainly in the FL Panhandle, where a Heat
Advisory may be needed.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 158 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Easterly flow on the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge
will keep a moist air mass in place with daily chances of showers
and storms through Thursday. The approach of a longwave trough
should increase chances of showers and storms further by Friday
into the weekend as the the flow becomes Southwest. Temperatures
will remain above average for early September in the lower 90s.
The pattern should become more conducive for fog during the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 752 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Lots of "moving parts" to consider in this set of TAFs. First it
the trend of ongoing activity to continue moving south and
possibly southwest over the next few hours. This would affect ECP
and VLD in the next few hours. The activity currently over south
Georgia could continue southwest, affecting TLH and possibly ECP
overnight and early Monday morning. Elsewhere, the moist low-
level air mass could support low stratus and mist around sunrise
at DHN, ABY, and VLD. Then a more routine round of afternoon
convective development is likely on Monday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 158 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Light and gentle southwest breezes will prevail through Monday. On
Monday night, the southern periphery of high pressure will bridge
in from the northeast, forcing a shift to gentle and moderate
northeast to east breezes for Tuesday and Wednesday. Northeast
breezes will weaken and turn back southwesterly on Thursday.
Otherwise, thunderstorms will be most prevalent over the waters
each morning, bringing sudden wind gusts, lightning, and possibly
waterspouts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 158 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

A seasonably moist and unstable air mass will remain in place
throughout this week. A northeast flow will develop on Monday and
become more solid by Tuesday as the southern periphery of high
pressure to the north bridges south across the districts. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast each day this week.
Thunderstorms through Monday have potential to be strong, bringing
gusty downburst winds. Otherwise, low dispersion may persist into
Monday afternoon mainly in the FL Big Bend. Meanwhile, heat index
values of 105-109F are forecast on Monday in the FL Panhandle into
portions of Southeast AL and the Western FL Big Bend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 158 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Through Monday, flooding concerns will be confined to the short-
lived nuisance variety beneath heavier thunderstorms, mainly
impacting urban and poor drainage areas. The I-75 corridor of GA
may be most impacted this evening into early tonight, followed
by the FL Counties on Monday.

No flooding is expected from Tuesday through next Saturday. River
flooding is not expected for at least the next 7 days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   75  92  73  90 /  30  80  50  80
Panama City   78  90  75  88 /  30  60  50  70
Dothan        73  93  72  90 /  50  50  40  50
Albany        73  91  72  90 /  50  40  30  50
Valdosta      73  90  72  89 /  50  60  50  70
Cross City    74  90  73  89 /  50  70  60  90
Apalachicola  77  87  76  85 /  40  60  70  80

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
749 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

GAZ128>131-148-070045-
Berrien GA-Tift GA-Irwin GA-Turner GA-Ben Hill GA-
749 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT IRWIN...NORTHERN BERRIEN...
NORTHEASTERN TURNER...NORTHEASTERN TIFT AND BEN HILL COUNTIES THROUGH
845 PM EDT...

At 749 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 11 miles northeast of Ashburn to Ocilla to 6
miles southwest of Douglas. Movement was south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Fitzgerald, Ashburn, Ocilla, Enigma, Alapaha, Mystic, Worth,
Sycamore, Rebecca, Gladys, Amboy, Osierfield, Glory, Harding,
Waterloo, Pinetta, Ashton, Irwinville, Turner Co Airport, and
Irwinville Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3166 8300 3161 8306 3155 8306 3148 8311
      3146 8315 3140 8314 3133 8306 3130 8305
      3139 8336 3180 8374 3180 8361 3185 8361
      3185 8318 3181 8313 3182 8311 3178 8303
      3178 8300
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 012DEG 9KT 3177 8348 3157 8326 3145 8294

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

73-YOUNG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
751 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

ALZ065-068-069-FLZ007-009>011-GAZ142-070030-
Coffee AL-Geneva AL-Houston AL-Holmes FL-Jackson FL-North Walton FL-
Washington FL-Early GA-
751 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN COFFEE...GENEVA...
HOUSTON...NORTHERN JACKSON...NORTHWESTERN WALTON...HOLMES...
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND SOUTHWESTERN EARLY COUNTIES THROUGH 830
PM EDT/730 PM CDT/...

At 751 PM EDT/651 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 9 miles northeast of
Florala to near Graceville to 10 miles northwest of Donalsonville.
Movement was south at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cottonwood, Bonifay, Geneva, Chipley, Graceville, Marianna, Dothan,
Hartford, Taylor, Ashford, Slocomb, Samson, Cowarts, Union, Liberty,
Malone, Malvern, Rehobeth, Cottondale, and Greenwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3089 8639 3100 8633 3100 8619 3125 8619
      3116 8556 3129 8502 3107 8501 3107 8503
      3105 8501 3084 8500 3070 8563 3083 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 013DEG 20KT 3109 8620 3098 8558 3110 8503

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

73-YOUNG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
803 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

FLZ029-070045-
Lafayette FL-
803 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LAFAYETTE COUNTY THROUGH 845 PM
EDT...

At 803 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Dowling Park, or 10 miles southwest of Suwannee River State Park,
moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Mayo, Townsend, Cooks Hammock, Chancey, Hatch Bend, Buckville, San
Pedro Junction, Day, Alton, Mayo Junction, Grady, and Fletcher
Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2983 8290 2982 8335 2989 8335 2989 8337
      3026 8336 3026 8326 3025 8324 3011 8323
      3010 8318 3011 8316 3010 8313 3010 8312
      3008 8307 3001 8300 2999 8296 2996 8295
      2995 8292 2989 8292 2990 8290 2988 8288
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 351DEG 15KT 3029 8327

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

42-DVD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
724 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

FLZ007>011-070100-
Central Walton FL-Holmes FL-Jackson FL-North Walton FL-Washington FL-
724 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT JACKSON...NORTHERN WALTON...
HOLMES AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM CDT...

At 723 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 12 miles southwest of Donalsonville to 9 miles
southeast of Graceville to 12 miles northeast of De Funiak Springs to
near Laurel Hill. Movement was south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Vernon, De Funiak Springs, Bonifay, Marianna, Chipley, Graceville,
Eglin Air Force Base, Bradford, Union, Liberty, Live Oak, Malone,
Cottondale, Grand Ridge, Greenwood, Paxton, Ponce De Leon, Alford,
Caryville, and Wausau.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8639 3100 8500 3090 8495 3063 8497
      3056 8549 3057 8609 3066 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 0023Z 014DEG 19KT 3094 8505 3088 8537 3088 8601 3099
8643

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

21-HANER