Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
913 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 903 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

- Thunderstorms through Monday could be strong to possibly
  severe. Isolated damaging wind gusts are the main concern,
  though nuisance flooding, lightning and small hail are also
  expected. There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe
  thunderstorms through tonight.

- There is a medium chance (50 percent) of dangerous heat index
  values exceeding 107 degrees on Monday afternoon mainly over the
  Florida Panhandle and Western Big Bend into Southeast Alabama.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Quite the messy radar this evening with 3 separate clusters of
storms. The first is a line of weakening, though gusty line of
thunderstorms near the I-10 corridor in the Florida Panhandle.
This is moving southward, producing gusts of 30-45 mph. This
should decay in the next couple hours.

To the east, over the eastern Big Bend, another line of storms is
moving southwestward toward the Nature Coast and Apalachee Bay
with some gusts of 30-40 mph at times and a few scattered storms
ahead of it over Wakulla and Jefferson Counties.

However, the main show will be an organizing line of strong to
severe storms near I-75 from Turner into Tift Counties with some
storms developing to the south in Lowndes and Lanier Counties.
These storms will likely become more of an organized complex of
storms as it moves south-southwestward through our Georgia
counties during the rest of this evening, possibly surviving into
the western Big Bend into the overnight hours. Gusty, perhaps
damaging winds are possible in the strongest storms. Storms should
weaken overnight with the loss of daytime instability, but there
remains ample instability for the time being across the area.

Rain chances were tweaked to reflect current radar trends.
Otherwise, no significant changes were made to the other elements.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 158 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms this evening
into early tonight across portions of Southeast AL, Southwest GA,
and the FL Panhandle and Big Bend generally north of I-10. While
some convection will fire up with the seabreeze in the FL counties,
the main show will be additional convection associated with a short
wave propagating Southwestward into the region from the Northeast,
centered on late this evening into early tonight. Increasing DCAPE
will support isolated damaging wind gusts of 50-60 mph while cold
air aloft may allow for some small hail (less than 1 inch). As the
convection moves toward the Gulf Coast after midnight, expect it
to weaken as CIN increases, although wind gusts to 40 mph would
pose a hazard to mariners. Will also have to watch for flooding
potential, which is highest in the I-75 corridor of GA. Patchy
fog is likely by late tonight.

Monday, afternoon and evening convection will be most prolific
in the FL Panhandle and Big Bend, with less coverage Northwest.
Not as much support for severe weather with elevated DCAPE still
supporting gusty winds to 40 mph with storms. Highs in the low
90s and dew points in the mid-70s will support heat indices in
the 105-109F range mainly in the FL Panhandle, where a Heat
Advisory may be needed.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 158 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Easterly flow on the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge
will keep a moist air mass in place with daily chances of showers
and storms through Thursday. The approach of a longwave trough
should increase chances of showers and storms further by Friday
into the weekend as the the flow becomes Southwest. Temperatures
will remain above average for early September in the lower 90s.
The pattern should become more conducive for fog during the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 752 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Lots of "moving parts" to consider in this set of TAFs. First it
the trend of ongoing activity to continue moving south and
possibly southwest over the next few hours. This would affect ECP
and VLD in the next few hours. The activity currently over south
Georgia could continue southwest, affecting TLH and possibly ECP
overnight and early Monday morning. Elsewhere, the moist low-
level air mass could support low stratus and mist around sunrise
at DHN, ABY, and VLD. Then a more routine round of afternoon
convective development is likely on Monday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 158 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Light and gentle southwest breezes will prevail through Monday. On
Monday night, the southern periphery of high pressure will bridge
in from the northeast, forcing a shift to gentle and moderate
northeast to east breezes for Tuesday and Wednesday. Northeast
breezes will weaken and turn back southwesterly on Thursday.
Otherwise, thunderstorms will be most prevalent over the waters
each morning, bringing sudden wind gusts, lightning, and possibly
waterspouts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 158 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

A seasonably moist and unstable air mass will remain in place
throughout this week. A northeast flow will develop on Monday and
become more solid by Tuesday as the southern periphery of high
pressure to the north bridges south across the districts. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast each day this week.
Thunderstorms through Monday have potential to be strong, bringing
gusty downburst winds. Otherwise, low dispersion may persist into
Monday afternoon mainly in the FL Big Bend. Meanwhile, heat index
values of 105-109F are forecast on Monday in the FL Panhandle into
portions of Southeast AL and the Western FL Big Bend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 158 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Through Monday, flooding concerns will be confined to the short-
lived nuisance variety beneath heavier thunderstorms, mainly
impacting urban and poor drainage areas. The I-75 corridor of GA
may be most impacted this evening into early tonight, followed
by the FL Counties on Monday.

No flooding is expected from Tuesday through next Saturday. River
flooding is not expected for at least the next 7 days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   94  75  92  73 /  40  50  80  50
Panama City   90  78  90  75 /  40  30  60  50
Dothan        95  73  93  72 /  30  60  50  40
Albany        96  73  91  72 /  50  40  40  30
Valdosta      94  73  90  72 /  40  60  60  50
Cross City    92  74  90  73 /  30  50  70  60
Apalachicola  89  77  87  76 /  30  40  60  70

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
919 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NNE Ocilla            31.61N 83.24W
09/06/2026                   Irwin              GA   911 Call Center

            Report of a tree that fell through a
            residence. No injuries were reported. Time
            estimated by radar.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
824 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

FLZ010>013-070200-
Inland Bay FL-Calhoun FL-Jackson FL-Washington FL-
824 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON...
NORTHEASTERN BAY...NORTHERN CALHOUN AND SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON
COUNTIES IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA THROUGH 900 PM CDT...

At 824 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southwest of Marianna, moving south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Blountstown, Marianna, Bradford, Altha, Alford, Moose Pond,
Clarksville, Selman, Fountain, Singer Road, Union City, Chipola,
Henderson Mill, Camps Head, Gainer Spring, Bennett, Youngstown, Star,
Porter Lake, and Alliance.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3079 8530 3070 8508 3049 8499 3047 8500
      3047 8499 3045 8500 3044 8498 3043 8502
      3035 8551 3038 8555 3071 8558
TIME...MOT...LOC 0124Z 340DEG 15KT 3061 8536

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

21-HANER

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
948 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Tifton                  31.45N 83.51W
09/06/2026                   Tift               GA   911 Call Center

            Line down in Tifton.

0915 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Fender                  31.36N 83.49W
09/06/2026                   Tift               GA   911 Call Center

            Scattered trees down in Tift county outside
            of Tifton.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
956 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 N Moultrie            31.21N 83.78W
09/06/2026                   Colquitt           GA   Law Enforcement

            Tree on power line blocking Anderson Drive
            in Moultrie.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
958 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 WNW Spence Airport    31.14N 83.71W
09/06/2026  M39 MPH          Colquitt           GA   Mesonet

            Sunbelt Ag Expo WeatherSTEM reported a 39
            mph wind gust.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1000 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 E W. Main/Brannon St  31.24N 85.46W
09/06/2026  M39 MPH          Houston            AL   Mesonet

            Hazcam on the west side of Dothan gusted to
            39 mph.

0655 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 WNW Hanchey Field     31.35N 85.67W
09/06/2026  M39 MPH          Dale               AL   AWOS

            KHEY reported a wind gust of 39 mph.

&&