Severe Thunderstorm Warning 360, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
132 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

- Broken heat wave keeps temperatures close to seasonable
  levels until at least Sunday. Widespread highs in the upper 80s
  to around 90 degrees are forecast Friday-Saturday.

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue.
  Elevated rain chances are forecast through Saturday. Strong to
  potentially isolated severe gusts, frequent lightning, locally
  heavy rain, and perhaps small to medium-sized hail are the
  primary threats.

- A more typical summertime pattern is expected next week in
  the form of hot afternoons, warm nights, and diurnal seabreeze-
  driven convection. Returning hazardous heat products will be in
  play.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight) Issued at 208 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

The 0Z SPC upper-air analysis shows the base of an upper trough
over the NE Gulf with its axis bisecting the Atlantic Coastal
Plain. An attendant frontal boundary remains draped across the
region, for which an area of low pressure along it made for a
convectively active period last night. Another round of erratic
scattered thunderstorms is on tap for us today thanks to this
front, any associated surface trough, upper height falls, and the
seabreeze amidst a sufficiently moist and unstable airmass. A
well-defined ridge/anticyclone anchored over the SW US places us
in dry NW flow aloft which may enhance downburst potential.

Convection initiates offshore and near the coast this morning,
spreads inland with the afternoon seabreeze, then north of the FL
state line from subsequent outflow boundary collisions in addition
to frontal/surface trough forcing. Organized severe weather is
currently not expected, but up to a few isolated severe downbursts
are possible from the strongest storms. The high instability and
Precipitable Water around 2" will make for efficient rainmakers,
cell mergers, and prolific lightning producers. High temperatures
are forecast to be in the low 90s with heat indices ranging from
about 98-105 degrees. Overnight lows drop the low 70s away from
the immediate coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 208 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Troughing lingers across the Eastern US with a series of
disturbances rounding its base across the Deep South. This pattern
supports unsettled weather through at least Saturday. Strong to
occasionally severe thunderstorms and instances of heavy rain are
the main concerns during that time, especially if any MCS manages
to dive in from the NW. The flip side is that daytime temperatures
will trend "cooler" as highs hover around 90 degrees.

By Sunday, the mean upper trough lifts northward, thus allowing
the ridge to build back over the region. This synoptic shift
should revert us to more of a typical summertime pattern to start
next week - hot days (low-mid 90s), warm nights (low 70s), and
diurnally driven seabreeze convection. However, heat products may
need to be considered once again for at least portions of the
Tri- State area as forecast heat indices look to creep back up
towards advisory levels of at least 108 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Scattered showers and storms will continue to develop this
afternoon into mid evening with the better chances from
ECP/TLH/VLD where convection is currently ongoing. MVFR conds
underneath heavier convection is possible. Overnight, IFR/LIFR
conds are expected to develop once again across southern GA and
include ABY and VLD with most likely timing between 07-14Z.
Offshore the FL panhandle convection appears to get an early start
and added PROB30 at ECP 12-18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 208 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Light to gentle southwest to south southwest breezes prevail
through Friday thanks to persistent surface high pressure over the
Central Gulf. The main marine threats are thunderstorms capable
of strong, gusty winds, frequent lightning, potential waterspouts,
and reduced visibility from heavy rain. Winds turn south to
southeasterly this weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 208 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

The main fire concerns are daily chances for afternoon
thunderstorms capable of strong to occasionally isolated damaging
gusts, frequent lightning, and locally wetting rains.
Gusty/erratic winds are also possible away from thunderstorms via
outflow boundaries and the seabreeze. West to SW winds prevail
outside of convection. Temperatures trend slightly cooler thanks
to increased cloud cover and elevated rain chances the next 3
days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 208 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Daily thunderstorms will be capable of producing localized
nuisance or flash flooding in urban, poor-drainage, and low-lying
areas. Wet weather is likely through Saturday thanks to the
presence of a lingering front and attendant disturbances to
enhance convection. There is a WPC Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4)
for Excessive Rainfall each day through Saturday. Thursday and
Friday look particularly messy. Looking at 12-hr MRMS QPE shows
that many locations in SW GA experienced 2-3+ inches of rain, so
those areas are more imminently vulnerable to (additional)
flooding today.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   90  74  91  74 /  60  20  50  30
Panama City   90  76  88  76 /  50  40  50  50
Dothan        91  73  90  73 /  60  30  60  30
Albany        92  73  91  73 /  40  20  60  30
Valdosta      91  73  92  73 /  70  20  40  10
Cross City    90  73  91  74 /  40  10  40  20
Apalachicola  87  77  88  77 /  50  30  40  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
110 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

FLZ115-261745-
Coastal Franklin FL-
110 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY THROUGH
145 PM EDT...

At 110 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Eastpoint to 17 miles southeast of St
George Island. Movement was east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Carrabelle, Eastpoint, St George Island, Apalachicola, Franklin,
Carrabelle Beach, Royal Bluff, High Bluff, St George Island St Pk,
and Green Point.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2977 8501 2984 8483 2981 8480 2990 8461
      2974 8454 2955 8493
TIME...MOT...LOC 1710Z 269DEG 13KT 2978 8484 2946 8469

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

02-MONTGOMERY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
114 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

FLZ027-115-127-261745-
Coastal Wakulla FL-Coastal Franklin FL-Inland Wakulla FL-
114 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN WAKULLA AND NORTHEASTERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM EDT...

At 114 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southwest of Crawfordville, moving east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Crawfordville, Sopchoppy, Medart, Buckhorn, Arran, Hilliardville,
Sanborn, Curtis Mill, and Tully.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3002 8456 3002 8457 3003 8459 3006 8461
      3007 8462 3006 8463 3009 8465 3030 8459
      3030 8438 3005 8438 3000 8453 3001 8453
      3000 8454
TIME...MOT...LOC 1714Z 264DEG 5KT 3010 8456

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

02-MONTGOMERY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
215 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

FLZ016-017-326-261845-
Gadsden FL-Northern Liberty FL-Leon FL-
215 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT GADSDEN...NORTHEASTERN LIBERTY
AND WESTERN LEON COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

At 214 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Greensboro, or 9 miles southwest of Quincy, moving
east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Tallahassee, Tallahassee State College, Quincy, Midway, Havana,
Greensboro, Chattahoochee, Gretna, Lake Bradford, Freemont, Rock
Bluff, Littman, Douglas City, Darsey, Juniper, Florence, Hosford,
Scotland, Jamieson, and Rosedale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3038 8487 3047 8500 3052 8499 3058 8496
      3058 8495 3060 8494 3062 8491 3066 8489
      3070 8486 3071 8486 3069 8434 3032 8433
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 265DEG 11KT 3046 8468

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

02-MONTGOMERY