Severe Thunderstorm Warning 359, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
728 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 726 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

- Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms appear likely
  through this evening. Isolated damaging gusts are the primary
  concerns. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) by the Storm Prediction
  Center is in place nearly areawide.

- The rest of the work week will be monitored for storm activity
  diving in from the northwest amidst otherwise typical summertime
  pattern of seasonable hot daytime temperatures and diurnally
  driven convection.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 726 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

The previous forecast is on track, and no major changes were made.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 350 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Persistent ridging across central and western CONUS will lead to
persistent troughing across eastern CONUS. This pattern puts us
under prevailing W to NW flow aloft which has "ring of fire"
implications. This is when perturbations along the 500mb flow lead
to clusters of thunderstorms (MCSs) that ridge along the periphery
of the ridge/high pressure across central and western CONUS and dive
southeast. Dry mid-level air may suppress widespread convection but
would add to the robustness of any storms that do materialize,
amplifying the gusty wind potential. Otherwise, expect prevailing
southwesterly flow near the surface to push inland each day with the
sea breeze, forcing our usual summertime afternoon thunderstorms.
Once we get to this weekend we'll see that ridge over central and
western CONUS shift eastward in the wake of an approaching frontal
system on Friday. Rain chances heading into early next week will be
at or below normal as the ridge sets up overhead.

Expect daytime highs generally in the 90s with overnight lows
generally in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 726 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Fairly active taf period with storms ongoing for the next few
hours this evening, followed by fog overnight, with another round
of scattered showers and storms tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Light to gentle southwest to south-southwest breezes prevail the
next few days thanks to persistent surface high pressure over the
Gulf. The main marine threats are thunderstorms capable of strong,
gusty winds, frequent lightning, potential waterspouts, and reduced
visibility from heavy rain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

The main fire concerns are daily chances for afternoon thunderstorms
capable of strong to isolated damaging gusts, frequent lightning,
and locally wetting rains. Gusty/erratic winds are also possible
away from thunderstorms from outflow boundaries and the seabreeze.
West to SW winds prevail outside of convection. Temperatures will be
hot, but heat indices are forecast to be below advisory levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Generally around 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is expected over the next
week from afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Isolated higher
amounts could be possible under any downpours. There are currently
no riverine flooding concerns.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   73  92  73  92 /  40  70  30  80
Panama City   76  89  76  89 /  30  50  60  70
Dothan        72  93  73  92 /  10  30  20  80
Albany        73  93  73  93 /  30  40  20  70
Valdosta      71  93  72  93 /  50  60  30  70
Cross City    73  91  73  91 /  30  40  30  60
Apalachicola  77  87  77  88 /  40  70  50  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...Oliver

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