Severe Thunderstorm Warning 342, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
306 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...New MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

- Daily chances for thunderstorms remain in the forecast. Some strong
  to severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening.
  Strong wind gusts of 40-60 mph, frequent lightning, and locally
  heavy rainfall are expected with the stronger storms that
  develop.

- The heat wave is poised to finally break with a more typical
  summertime pattern returning early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

For the rest of this afternoon, a remnant MCV will slowly spin down
over southeast Georgia just east of Lanier and Lowndes Counties.
We'll be watching a shortwave moving southward around the ridge to
our west, which will precede the larger trough over the Great Lakes
that will move through on Saturday. This shortwave will help
generate scattered to numerous showers and storms later this
afternoon continuing into the evening hours. Some of this convection
could become more organized into clusters or lines. DCAPE and
instability should increase further into the afternoon hours, which
will lead to a threat of strong downbursts. Also, low to mid-level
lapse rates will steepen with cooler temperatures moving in aloft,
which could lead to a threat of some hail. SPC has maintained the
Marginal Risk of severe weather (level 1 of 5) for this afternoon
and evening for most of the area. Some of the guidance during the
overnight hours has outflow from storms to our northwest moving into
our area, which may help spark isolated to scattered showers and
storms late tonight. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

For Saturday, the shortwave moves more into our area, bisecting our
area from northeast to southwest. So, rain chances will be more
confined to areas from Panama City to Valdosta southward. While
soundings aren't quite as impressive tomorrow, still a gusty wind
and maybe small hail threat exist. Currently, there is no severe
weather risk outlined for tomorrow from SPC. Drier air will sneak
into our area as well, which should keep us below Heat Advisory
levels for Saturday. If this holds, it would be the first day
without a Heat Advisory in our area since August 10th. It will still
be hot with highs in the lower half of the 90s with heat index
values of 102-107.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Sunday and Monday will be the driest days with PWATs crashing to 1.2
to 1.5 inches. Thus, little coverage of showers and storms is
expected Sunday and would occur mainly near the sea breeze. Monday,
however, we'll have to watch if a shortwave rounds the ridge to our
west and enters our area during the afternoon, which may help spark
better coverage of showers and storms. The drier air will make it
feel much more tolerable (until the sea breeze arrives). Highs will
still be in the mid to upper 90s both days, but heat index values
will only manage the upper 90s to 105 in most spots.

Through much of the upcoming week, the ridge will remain off to our
west, and we'll remain in northwesterly flow aloft. So, we'll
continue to monitor for any ridge-riding disturbances, but our
rain chances will gradually increase with a return to a summer
pattern. Highs remain in the low to mid 90s with heat index values
of 102-108.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Scattered showers and storms are expected to blossom across the
area this afternoon and evening. Outside of convection, generally
VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Scattered storms are expected through Saturday, mainly in the
overnight and morning hours. However, clusters of storms could
move into the waters during the evening hours from land. Gusty
winds and brief waterspouts are possible in the stronger storms.
Otherwise, mainly gentle to occasionally moderate southwesterly
breezes will continue over the next several days with seas around
1-2 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Generally light west to southwest transport winds will continue
through Saturday, then more variable on Monday. Dispersions will
remain good overall each afternoon. Scattered showers and storms are
expected again Saturday afternoon, but decreasing coverage is
anticipated both Sunday and Monday. Gusty, erratic winds and
dangerous lightning strikes will be possible. Drier air will move in
over the weekend, but RH values will stay above critical levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall today and
Saturday. If the storms are slow-moving, they could produce several
inches of rain in a short period of time. This would lead to some
nuisance to isolated flash flood concerns, particularly is low-lying
or poor drainage areas.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   94  74  93  74 /  50  40  70   0
Panama City   90  77  90  78 /  20  40  50  10
Dothan        94  73  94  73 /  50  50  10   0
Albany        96  73  95  73 /  80  80  20   0
Valdosta      95  73  94  73 /  70  50  60   0
Cross City    92  75  91  74 /  40  20  70  40
Apalachicola  90  78  89  78 /  30  40  60  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-
     426.

GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ155>161.

AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Young

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
515 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

GAZ148-212145-
Berrien GA-
515 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN BERRIEN COUNTY THROUGH
545 PM EDT...

At 515 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Alapaha, or 9 miles west of Willacoochee, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Enigma, Alapaha, Weber, Glory, Gladys, and Bannockburn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3117 8311 3132 8337 3148 8330 3147 8315
      3146 8315 3144 8314 3140 8314 3139 8312
      3137 8311 3136 8310 3134 8307 3130 8305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 297DEG 7KT 3137 8321

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

21-HANER

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
520 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0516 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 N Sale City           31.31N 84.01W
08/21/2026                   Mitchell           GA   Public

            Some tree limbs down reported via mPING.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
522 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Mitchell Co a/P         31.22N 84.23W
08/21/2026  M46 MPH          Mitchell           GA   AWOS

            AWOS station KCXU Camilla.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
527 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

ALZ067-069-GAZ125-127-142>146-155>158-212200-
Houston AL-Henry AL-Miller GA-Decatur GA-Baker GA-Early GA-Thomas GA-
Worth GA-Colquitt GA-Dougherty GA-Mitchell GA-Seminole GA-Grady GA-
527 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT HOUSTON...SOUTHERN HENRY...
MITCHELL...NORTHERN SEMINOLE...EARLY...COLQUITT...SOUTHERN WORTH...
NORTHEASTERN DECATUR...NORTHERN GRADY...MILLER...EASTERN DOUGHERTY...
BAKER AND THOMAS COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT/500 PM CDT/...

At 527 PM EDT/427 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 6 miles east of Marine
Corps Logistics Base to near Doerun to 8 miles north of Ochlocknee to
14 miles west of Pelham to 6 miles east of Ashford to Pinckard.
Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Colquitt, Cottonwood, Newton, Moultrie, Blakely, Thomasville, Pelham,
Putney, Headland, Dothan, Bainbridge, Donalsonville, Sylvester,
Cairo, Camilla, Albany, Taylor, Midland City, Kinsey, and Ashford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8369 3103 8361 3104 8374 3082 8374
      3083 8412 3093 8484 3097 8500 3100 8500
      3108 8544 3120 8549 3127 8559 3124 8549
      3129 8548 3129 8542 3142 8542 3150 8491
      3136 8456 3135 8434 3150 8414 3168 8400
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 318DEG 26KT 3156 8394 3130 8389 3109 8402 3109
8439 3119 8512 3130 8556

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

21-HANER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
557 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

ALZ065>067-069-GAZ142>145-212230-
Dale AL-Henry AL-Coffee AL-Houston AL-Miller GA-Baker GA-Mitchell GA-
Early GA-
557 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT DALE...HENRY...COFFEE...
HOUSTON...MILLER...SOUTHWESTERN MITCHELL...WESTERN BAKER AND EARLY
COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT/530 PM CDT/...

At 556 PM EDT/456 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Columbia, or 11 miles southeast of Headland, moving
east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Daleville, Elba, Abbeville, Colquitt, Cottonwood, Blakely, Headland,
Dothan, Fort Rucker, Ozark, Taylor, Midland City, Kinsey, Ashford,
Level Plains, Cowarts, Newton, Arlington, Webb, and New Brockton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3162 8604 3162 8541 3153 8504 3149 8503
      3150 8494 3147 8480 3144 8479 3141 8446
      3109 8439 3107 8503 3104 8501 3104 8503
      3107 8535 3111 8549 3120 8549 3120 8577
      3130 8612
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 291DEG 12KT 3128 8517

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

21-HANER

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