Severe Thunderstorm Warning 331, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
306 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...New MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

- Daily chances for thunderstorms remain in the forecast. Some strong
  to severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening.
  Strong wind gusts of 40-60 mph, frequent lightning, and locally
  heavy rainfall are expected with the stronger storms that
  develop.

- The heat wave is poised to finally break with a more typical
  summertime pattern returning early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

For the rest of this afternoon, a remnant MCV will slowly spin down
over southeast Georgia just east of Lanier and Lowndes Counties.
We'll be watching a shortwave moving southward around the ridge to
our west, which will precede the larger trough over the Great Lakes
that will move through on Saturday. This shortwave will help
generate scattered to numerous showers and storms later this
afternoon continuing into the evening hours. Some of this convection
could become more organized into clusters or lines. DCAPE and
instability should increase further into the afternoon hours, which
will lead to a threat of strong downbursts. Also, low to mid-level
lapse rates will steepen with cooler temperatures moving in aloft,
which could lead to a threat of some hail. SPC has maintained the
Marginal Risk of severe weather (level 1 of 5) for this afternoon
and evening for most of the area. Some of the guidance during the
overnight hours has outflow from storms to our northwest moving into
our area, which may help spark isolated to scattered showers and
storms late tonight. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

For Saturday, the shortwave moves more into our area, bisecting our
area from northeast to southwest. So, rain chances will be more
confined to areas from Panama City to Valdosta southward. While
soundings aren't quite as impressive tomorrow, still a gusty wind
and maybe small hail threat exist. Currently, there is no severe
weather risk outlined for tomorrow from SPC. Drier air will sneak
into our area as well, which should keep us below Heat Advisory
levels for Saturday. If this holds, it would be the first day
without a Heat Advisory in our area since August 10th. It will still
be hot with highs in the lower half of the 90s with heat index
values of 102-107.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Sunday and Monday will be the driest days with PWATs crashing to 1.2
to 1.5 inches. Thus, little coverage of showers and storms is
expected Sunday and would occur mainly near the sea breeze. Monday,
however, we'll have to watch if a shortwave rounds the ridge to our
west and enters our area during the afternoon, which may help spark
better coverage of showers and storms. The drier air will make it
feel much more tolerable (until the sea breeze arrives). Highs will
still be in the mid to upper 90s both days, but heat index values
will only manage the upper 90s to 105 in most spots.

Through much of the upcoming week, the ridge will remain off to our
west, and we'll remain in northwesterly flow aloft. So, we'll
continue to monitor for any ridge-riding disturbances, but our
rain chances will gradually increase with a return to a summer
pattern. Highs remain in the low to mid 90s with heat index values
of 102-108.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Scattered showers and storms are expected to blossom across the
area this afternoon and evening. Outside of convection, generally
VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Scattered storms are expected through Saturday, mainly in the
overnight and morning hours. However, clusters of storms could
move into the waters during the evening hours from land. Gusty
winds and brief waterspouts are possible in the stronger storms.
Otherwise, mainly gentle to occasionally moderate southwesterly
breezes will continue over the next several days with seas around
1-2 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Generally light west to southwest transport winds will continue
through Saturday, then more variable on Monday. Dispersions will
remain good overall each afternoon. Scattered showers and storms are
expected again Saturday afternoon, but decreasing coverage is
anticipated both Sunday and Monday. Gusty, erratic winds and
dangerous lightning strikes will be possible. Drier air will move in
over the weekend, but RH values will stay above critical levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall today and
Saturday. If the storms are slow-moving, they could produce several
inches of rain in a short period of time. This would lead to some
nuisance to isolated flash flood concerns, particularly is low-lying
or poor drainage areas.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   94  74  93  74 /  50  40  70   0
Panama City   90  77  90  78 /  20  40  50  10
Dothan        94  73  94  73 /  50  50  10   0
Albany        96  73  95  73 /  80  80  20   0
Valdosta      95  73  94  73 /  70  50  60   0
Cross City    92  75  91  74 /  40  20  70  40
Apalachicola  90  78  89  78 /  30  40  60  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-
     426.

GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ155>161.

AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Young

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
216 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

GAZ125-127-128-144-145-211845-
Worth GA-Baker GA-Dougherty GA-Mitchell GA-Turner GA-
216 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN TURNER...EASTERN
DOUGHERTY...NORTHEASTERN MITCHELL...NORTHEASTERN BAKER AND WORTH
COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

At 216 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Putney, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Sylvester, Putney, Ashburn, Albany, Baconton, Poulan, Marine Corps
Logistics Base, Worth, Terrell, Sycamore, Sumner, Bridgeboro, Radium
Springs, Sylvester Airport, Anderson City, Tempy, Parkerville, Red
Rock, Acree, and Lester.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3181 8382 3180 8380 3180 8374 3169 8359
      3160 8363 3159 8365 3154 8365 3152 8366
      3136 8384 3132 8412 3139 8424 3149 8419
      3160 8404 3182 8392
TIME...MOT...LOC 1816Z 251DEG 9KT 3143 8408

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

21-HANER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
222 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

ALZ067-GAZ120-121-211845-
Henry AL-Quitman GA-Clay GA-
222 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN HENRY...
NORTHWESTERN CLAY AND QUITMAN COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT/145 PM
CDT/...

At 221 PM EDT/121 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Eufaula, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Gaines, Georgetown, Days Crossroads, Wire Bridge, Walter F
George Lake, Bonapartes Retreat, Standleys Store, Otho, Watson
Crossroads, Scottsboro Crossroads, Double Bridges, Moores Crossroads,
Crossroads, Ricks Place, Garnersville, Coates, Bagby State Park,
Thomas Mill Creek, and Hatcher.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3198 8504 3197 8496 3194 8496 3192 8491
      3164 8501 3164 8518 3170 8522 3174 8520
      3177 8516 3177 8512 3178 8514 3183 8513
      3186 8514 3189 8513 3194 8508 3196 8509
      3197 8507 3199 8507
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 297DEG 7KT 3184 8518

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

02-MONTGOMERY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
132 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

ALZ067-211845-
Henry AL-
132 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL HENRY COUNTY THROUGH 145
PM CDT...

At 131 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Osco to near Richards Crossroads. These
storms were nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Abbeville, Headland, Newville, Haleburg, Shorterville, Walter F.
George Lock And Dam, Barnes, Tumbleton, Hardwickburg, Capps,
Grandberry Crossroads, Hayes, Murphy Station, Graball, Screamer,
Headland Municipal A/P, Dancey, Miller, Lawrenceville, and Abbeville
Municipal A/P.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3170 8522 3164 8518 3164 8509 3162 8506
      3157 8506 3154 8504 3147 8507 3145 8507
      3133 8511 3136 8534 3170 8529
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 303DEG 4KT 3184 8519 3171 8519

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

02-MONTGOMERY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
243 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

GAZ125-127-145-211915-
Worth GA-Dougherty GA-Mitchell GA-
243 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN DOUGHERTY...NORTHEASTERN
MITCHELL AND CENTRAL WORTH COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

At 242 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Marine Corps Logistics Base, or 8 miles west of Sylvester. The strong
thunderstorm is nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sylvester, Putney, Albany, Baconton, Poulan, East Albany, Marine
Corps Logistics Base, Turner City, Terrell, Sumner, Bridgeboro,
Radium Springs, Sylvester Airport, Tempy, Parkerville, Red Rock,
Acree, Lester, Pritchetts, and Crestwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3162 8379 3162 8372 3159 8367 3158 8367
      3138 8384 3134 8398 3132 8413 3139 8419
      3140 8419 3139 8418 3141 8418 3142 8415
      3143 8414 3144 8419 3154 8418 3163 8410
      3162 8405 3164 8403 3167 8390 3168 8380
TIME...MOT...LOC 1842Z 248DEG 4KT 3150 8396

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

21-HANER