Severe Thunderstorm Warning 135, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
129 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

- Occasional rounds of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are likely
  again today. Some localized flooding could occur with the
  strongest storms along with gusty winds.

- Additional heavy rain is expected on Thursday and Friday with
  the heaviest amounts expected across southeast Alabama,
  southwest Georgia, and the Florida panhandle. A flood watch is
  in effect for Thursday and Friday generally near and west of a
  Panama City to Ashburn line for the potential for flash
  flooding.

- A High Risk of rip currents is forecast to continue through at
  least Saturday for the Walton, Bay, and Gulf county beaches. It
  is strongly discouraged to enter the surf on high risk days.
  Please heed the beach flags and advice of local officials.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 227 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Today looks similar to the past couple of days with additional
rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected. A surface trough
remains in the vicinity, and deep tropical moisture continues
streaming northeastward into our area with low pressure in the
northwest Gulf. Precipitable water values will remain near or above
2 inches, supporting heavy rain rates and localized flooding issues
with the heaviest activity. A few stronger storms capable of gusty
winds also remain possible. Highs will generally range from the
lower 80s to near 90 with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 227 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

The unsettled pattern is expected to continue through at least
Friday and possibly into Saturday. The remnants of Potential
Tropical Cyclone 1 will pass northwest of the area on Thursday into
Friday. This could bring more heavy rain and severe weather to the
area, particularly the northwest half of our forecast area. When
combined with the rain that has already fallen this week, the flash
flooding potential will increase for the Thursday-Friday time frame.
A flood watch has been issued to account for this, roughly along
and west of a Panama City to Ashburn line where the heaviest rain
is currently expected. Favorable instability and shear may lead
to a threat of a few tornadoes as well, especially on Thursday.

Once low pressure moves off to the east, a surface front will
settle south in its wake to near the Gulf Coast. This could be a
focus for additional scattered afternoon storms this weekend. A
deep tropical airmass is expected to remain in place with
precipitable water values near or above 2 inches, so pockets of
heavy rain can be expected with this activity as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Several rounds of showers and storms are expected through the taf
period. Generally VFR to MVFR conditions are expected outside of
convection. Thursday will be breezier as the gradient tightens.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 227 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Moderate southwest breezes will prevail through today, becoming
fresh or possibly strong southerlies on Thursday and Friday as low
pressure passes to our north. Once low pressure has exited on
Saturday, a reduction to gentle westerlies is expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 227 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

A very moist air mass will be in place through the rest of the
week and into the weekend, supporting widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity, thick cloud cover, and wetting rains.
Pockets of heavy rainfall are expected. Thunderstorms will come
with dangerous lightning and sudden gusty winds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 227 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms today will bring
pockets of heavy rainfall to the area. While some localized
ponding of water could occur today, a larger threat of flash
flooding is expected to arrive in the Thursday-Friday time frame
as low pressure passes northwest of our area. The potential exists
for training bands of thunderstorms in a deep tropical airmass to
affect the western and northern portions of the area. Rain rates
would be quite high in this scenario, which would result in flash
flooding. Thus, a flood watch has been issued near and west of a
Panama City to Ashburn line for the Thursday-Friday time frame to
account for this possibility.

Rivers remain on the low side from the ongoing drought conditions,
so significant riverine flooding is currently not expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   77  87  77  88 /  30  70  60  80
Panama City   78  86  79  87 /  50  70  60  70
Dothan        75  82  74  86 /  30  90  90 100
Albany        75  84  73  86 /  10  90  90 100
Valdosta      76  88  76  88 /  10  60  70  90
Cross City    79  92  78  90 /  10  40  20  50
Apalachicola  81  86  81  87 /  30  50  50  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch from Thursday morning through late Friday night for
     FLZ007>013-108-112.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ108-112-
     114.

GA...Flood Watch from Thursday morning through late Friday night for
     GAZ120>128-142>145-155-156.

AL...Flood Watch from Thursday morning through late Friday night for
     ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1137 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

ALZ068-FLZ007>011-171715-
Geneva AL-Central Walton FL-Holmes FL-Jackson FL-North Walton FL-
Washington FL-
1137 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN JACKSON...WALTON...
HOLMES AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 1215 PM CDT...

At 1137 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles north of Wright to near Vernon.
Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Vernon, Chipley, Graceville, De Funiak Springs, Bonifay, Eglin Air
Force Base, Bradford, Union, Liberty, Live Oak, Paxton, Ponce De
Leon, Caryville, Wausau, Esto, Westville, Campbellton, Noma, Oakwood
Hills, and Cluster Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8639 3100 8535 3051 8563 3055 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 1637Z 225DEG 30KT 3061 8666 3057 8565

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

IG3

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1245 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

ALZ069-FLZ011-GAZ142>144-155-171730-
Houston AL-Jackson FL-Miller GA-Baker GA-Seminole GA-Early GA-
1245 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN HOUSTON...NORTH CENTRAL
JACKSON...WESTERN MILLER...WEST CENTRAL BAKER...NORTHWESTERN SEMINOLE
AND EARLY COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM EDT/1230 PM CDT/...

At 1245 PM EDT/1145 AM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 9 miles southeast of Ashford, or 12 miles east of
Cottonwood, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Colquitt, Blakely, Ashford, Columbia, Douglasville, Centerville,
Malone, Gordon, Damascus, Jakin, Bascom, Saffold, Pansey, Crosby,
Mayhaw, Rock Hill, Early Co A/p, Farley Nuclear Plant, Hentown, and
Hilton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3145 8479 3144 8479 3144 8477 3130 8458
      3092 8512 3108 8529 3131 8513 3131 8509
      3137 8509 3149 8501
TIME...MOT...LOC 1645Z 219DEG 29KT 3111 8511

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

IG3

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
106 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

GAZ126>131-171745-
Tift GA-Worth GA-Lee GA-Irwin GA-Turner GA-Ben Hill GA-
106 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT IRWIN...TURNER...LEE...NORTH
CENTRAL TIFT...BEN HILL AND NORTHERN WORTH COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM
EDT...

At 106 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Smithville to Ocilla. Movement was
northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Fitzgerald, Leesburg, Ashburn, Ocilla, Smithville, Mystic, Worth,
Sycamore, Warwick, Rebecca, Chokee, Osierfield, Amboy, Waterloo,
Pinetta, Inaha, Ashton, Irwinville, Hobby, and Turner Co Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3191 8392 3185 8394 3184 8386 3180 8380
      3180 8361 3185 8361 3185 8318 3181 8313
      3178 8299 3166 8300 3161 8305 3152 8331
      3175 8429 3183 8426 3187 8434 3192 8432
TIME...MOT...LOC 1706Z 244DEG 30KT 3190 8432 3161 8325

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

IG3

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
128 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

ALZ065-066-068-069-FLZ009-011-GAZ142-171815-
Dale AL-Coffee AL-Geneva AL-Houston AL-Holmes FL-Jackson FL-Early GA-
128 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN DALE...SOUTHERN
COFFEE...GENEVA...HOUSTON...NORTHWESTERN JACKSON...NORTHERN HOLMES
AND WEST CENTRAL EARLY COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM EDT/115 PM CDT/...

At 128 PM EDT/1228 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Florala to near Geneva
to near Graceville. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Daleville, Cottonwood, Geneva, Enterprise, Graceville, Dothan, Fort
Rucker, Hartford, Taylor, Midland City, Ashford, Level Plains,
Slocomb, Samson, Cowarts, Newton, Webb, Pinckard, Kinsey, and
Malvern.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3138 8617 3131 8558 3126 8502 3090 8537
      3096 8590 3098 8604 3099 8604 3099 8612
      3100 8619 3101 8619 3134 8620
TIME...MOT...LOC 1728Z 218DEG 28KT 3105 8630 3099 8588 3094 8547

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

58-REESE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
141 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

FLZ017-018-GAZ156>159-171830-
Inland Jefferson FL-Leon FL-Brooks GA-Decatur GA-Grady GA-Thomas GA-
141 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN JEFFERSON...NORTHEASTERN
LEON...SOUTHEASTERN DECATUR...GRADY...THOMAS AND SOUTHWESTERN BROOKS
COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

At 140 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles southwest of Whigham to 8 miles
southwest of Cairo to 12 miles northeast of Tallahassee. Movement was
northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cairo, Thomasville, Boston, Ochlocknee, Whigham, Alma, Thomasville
Municipal A/P, Dills, Grooverville, Capel, Dillon, Everett, Rocky
Hill, Miccosukee, Merrillville, Princes Still, Empress, Nickleville,
Lake Miccosukee, and Fincher.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3104 8417 3098 8388 3067 8354 3051 8410
      3074 8433 3077 8450
TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 240DEG 29KT 3079 8437 3077 8428 3059 8411

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

58-REESE