River Flood Warning 1, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
625 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 624 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

- Seasonable summer thunderstorms will continue through at least
  mid-week. Be ready to head indoors when storms approach.

- There is a High Risk of dangerous rip currents at Walton, Bay,
  and Gulf County beaches today. Heed the advice of beach flags
  and local officials.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 121 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

The 500 mb subtropical ridge axis over South Florida and the
Southeast Gulf on Sunday evening will strengthen today while
extending west through the Gulf and expanding north toward Central
Florida. Meanwhile, our 1000-700 mb layer flow will turn from
westerly to southwesterly, tapping into the less moist air that is
evident further offshore in satellite imagery. Overall, the building
heights and less moist mid-level air will reduce convective coverage
a notch today from Sunday. For the Tallahassee area, keep in mind
that southwest steering flow pulls Forgotten Coast seabreeze
thunderstorms toward Tallahassee. So while convective coverage will
be down for the tri-state forecast area as a whole, the southwest
flow will keep Tallahassee most prone to convection, from midday
through the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 121 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Mid-upper level flow will become northwesterly starting late
tonight, thanks to the temporary strengthening of a strong upper
high over the Chihuahuan Desert region near El Paso. The northwest
flow will push a cold front south into our region on Tuesday and
Tuesday night. In advance of the front, the decaying remnants of
an MCS could reach the Alabama Wiregrass during the pre-dawn hours
early Tuesday morning. Otherwise, the front will be an added
focus for renewed afternoon convection on Tuesday, especially
along and south of the U.S. 84 corridor.

Behind the front, a drier air mass will spread southeast,
particularly through Georgia. The drier air will struggle to reach
Florida and Lower Alabama, though the southernmost extent of the dry
air is a point of disagreement among some guidance members.
Within the drier air, convection will get shut down for the day.
Where drier air fails to arrive, scattered afternoon convection is
expected, most confidently along the Panhandle seabreeze.

We will lose the northwest flow aloft on Wed night and Thursday,
becoming more westerly as the Chihuahuan upper high weakens and
deamplifies. Seasonably moist PW values in the 1.6 to 2.0 inch range
will therefore return and overspread the entire forecast area,
supporting scattered afternoon convection areawide on Thursday.

The nice, neat latitudinal orientation of the subtropical ridge will
start to fall apart on Friday. A lobe of mid-level high pressure
will break off across Florida on Friday, then expand across the
Southeast U.S. on Saturday, then amplify over the Eastern U.S. on
Sunday. With 500 mb heights hovering in the 5920-5940 meter range,
large-scale subsidence and only marginally favorable PW values in
the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range, convection will become confined mostly to
the most favorable seabreeze zones in Florida. The loss of flow
aloft means individual convective cells will cover less ground and
become shorter-lived.

Under the influence of mid-upper ridging from Friday through Sunday,
high temperatures will head upward to the mid 90s and beyond over
inland areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

A blend of MVFR and IFR conditions this morning. Vsbys should
improve following sunrise with ceilings gradually lifting through
the morning. VFR conditions can be expected for the afternoon.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop this
afternoon, but the coverage will be less than what we've had over
the past few days. Generally expect light south/southwesterly
winds through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 121 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Through Wednesday, a subtropical ridge axis will extend across
Central Florida and into the eastern Gulf, supporting gentle to
occasionally moderate westerly breezes along the Northeast Gulf
Coast. On Thursday, high pressure will expand into the Northeast
Gulf, decreasing general background winds and making the nearshore
afternoon seabreeze the dominant wind regime.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 121 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

For today and Tuesday, a seasonably hot, muggy and unstable air mass
will cover the districts. The main fire weather concern will be
gusty and erratic winds near scattered afternoon thunderstorms.
Storm coverage will be greater on Tuesday than today.

On Wednesday, drier air will spread across the region, particularly
over our Georgia districts. Humidity will trend lower, and afternoon
thunderstorms will be more confined to the Panhandle seabreeze zone.
The drier air mass will be short-lived, with a seasonably moist air
mass returning regionwide on Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 121 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

The main concern through this work week will be with short-lived
nuisance runoff issues beneath the core of stronger thunderstorms.

On the river side, runoff from recent heavy rains is routing
downstream through our river systems. The biggest rises have been in
the Pea/Choctawhatchee basin. The latest river forecast still brings
the Choctawhatchee at Bruce into Minor Flood starting Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   92  76  93  75 /  50   0  40  20
Panama City   89  80  89  78 /  10  10  20  10
Dothan        91  75  90  73 /  40  30  40  20
Albany        91  75  90  73 /  30  30  50  20
Valdosta      92  75  92  74 /  40  10  30  20
Cross City    93  77  94  76 /  10  10  10  20
Apalachicola  89  80  90  79 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner