Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2026

Mesoscale Discussion 263

March 16, 20266 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 16, 2026, 4:21 AM EDT for 6 states. It was in force for 114 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 16, 2026, 4:21 AM EDT (08:21 UTC)
Expired
Mar 16, 2026, 6:15 AM EDT
In force
114 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch likely
Chance of a watch
80%
All 61 counties

Rabun County, GA, Towns County, GA, Union County, GA, Alexander County, NC, Alleghany County, NC, Ashe County, NC, Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Clay County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Graham County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Macon County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Swain County, NC, Transylvania County, NC, Watauga County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Yancey County, NC, Anderson County, SC, Greenville County, SC, Oconee County, SC, Pickens County, SC, Spartanburg County, SC, Carter County, TN, Cocke County, TN, Greene County, TN, Johnson County, TN, Sullivan County, TN, Unicoi County, TN, Washington County, TN, Bland County, VA, Buchanan County, VA, Carroll County, VA, City of Bristol, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Radford, VA, Dickenson County, VA, Giles County, VA, Grayson County, VA, Pulaski County, VA, Russell County, VA, Smyth County, VA, Tazewell County, VA, Washington County, VA, Wythe County, VA, McDowell County, WV, Mercer County, WV, Monroe County, WV, Raleigh County, WV, Summers County, WV, Wyoming County, WV

The radar

The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 112 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 203 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2026-03-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 18 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2026-03-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 168 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
18 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-26 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
690 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
168 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
293 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 15, 9:22 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCBartow, Catoosa, Chattooga, Dade, Fannin, Floyd and 6 more9 hr
Mar 15, 11:54 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDade2 hr
Mar 16, 3:37 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBanks, Barrow, Bartow, Bibb, Butts, Calhoun and 69 more113 min
Mar 16, 4:10 AM EDTTornado WatchSPCBaldwin, Banks, Barrow, Bibb, Butts, Calhoun and 65 more8 hr
Mar 16, 4:36 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCElbert, Franklin, Habersham, Hart, Lincoln, Rabun and 1 more6 hr
Mar 16, 6:01 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAppling, Atkinson, Bacon, Baker, Ben Hill, Berrien and 41 more89 min
Mar 16, 7:23 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaldwin, Bibb, Butts, Chattahoochee, Clarke, Crawford and 28 more97 min
Mar 16, 7:54 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAppling, Atkinson, Bacon, Baker, Ben Hill, Berrien and 50 more96 min
Mar 16, 7:59 AM EDTTornado WatchSPCAppling, Atkinson, Bacon, Baker, Ben Hill, Berrien and 60 more7 hr
Mar 16, 10:36 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAppling, Atkinson, Bacon, Ben Hill, Berrien, Brantley and 39 more84 min
Mar 16, 12:49 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAppling, Atkinson, Bacon, Brantley, Bryan, Bulloch and 20 more86 min
Mar 16, 1:33 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCCamden, Charlton, Glynn4 hr
Mar 16, 8:40 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlamance, Anson, Cabarrus, Caswell, Chatham, Davidson and 23 more2 hr
Mar 16, 8:54 AM EDTTornado WatchSPCAlamance, Anson, Caswell, Chatham, Cumberland, Davidson and 19 more5 hr
Mar 16, 10:52 AM EDTTornado WatchSPCBertie, Camden, Chowan, Currituck, Gates, Hertford and 3 more8 hr
Mar 16, 11:15 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaufort, Bertie, Bladen, Brunswick, Carteret, Columbus and 22 more90 min
Mar 16, 1:18 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCBeaufort, Bladen, Brunswick, Carteret, Columbus, Craven and 27 more7 hr
Mar 16, 2:00 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBertie, Camden, Chowan, Currituck, Gates, Halifax and 5 more90 min
Mar 16, 3:19 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaufort, Bertie, Bladen, Brunswick, Camden, Carteret and 28 more116 min
Mar 16, 5:32 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlamance, Bertie, Bladen, Caswell, Chatham, Cumberland and 29 more118 min
Mar 15, 8:39 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBedford, Bledsoe, Cannon, Cheatham, Clay, Coffee and 36 more2 hr
Mar 15, 11:02 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGiles, Lawrence, Wayne88 min
Mar 16, 12:41 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAnderson, Blount, Campbell, Carter, Claiborne, Cocke and 16 more6 hr
Mar 16, 10:03 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlbemarle, Amelia, Amherst, Appomattox, Arlington, Augusta and 59 more2 hr
Mar 16, 11:35 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAmelia, Appomattox, Buckingham, Campbell, Caroline, Charlotte and 15 more85 min
Mar 16, 6:13 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarbour, Boone, Braxton, Brooke, Calhoun, Clay and 34 more4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2026Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2026Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2026Every mesoscale discussion in 2026

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.