Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2026

Mesoscale Discussion 243

March 15, 202619 counties in Illinois; 52 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 15, 2026, 12:23 PM CDT for 19 counties in Illinois; 52 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 15, 2026, 12:23 PM CDT (17:23 UTC)
Expired
Mar 15, 2026, 2:30 PM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...tornado watch likely
Chance of a watch
80%
All 71 counties

Bond County, IL, Calhoun County, IL, Clinton County, IL, Greene County, IL, Jackson County, IL, Jersey County, IL, Macoupin County, IL, Madison County, IL, Monroe County, IL, Montgomery County, IL, Morgan County, IL, Perry County, IL, Pike County, IL, Randolph County, IL, Saint Clair County, IL, Sangamon County, IL, Scott County, IL, Union County, IL, Washington County, IL, Audrain County, MO, Barry County, MO, Bollinger County, MO, Butler County, MO, Callaway County, MO, Camden County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Carter County, MO, Christian County, MO, City of Saint Louis, MO, Cole County, MO, Crawford County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Franklin County, MO, Gasconade County, MO, Greene County, MO, Howell County, MO, Iron County, MO, Jefferson County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lincoln County, MO, Madison County, MO, Maries County, MO, Miller County, MO, Montgomery County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Osage County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Perry County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Pike County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Ralls County, MO, Reynolds County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Saint Charles County, MO, Saint Francois County, MO, Saint Louis County, MO, Sainte Genevieve County, MO, Scott County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Warren County, MO, Washington County, MO, Wayne County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 105 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 5.4 hours before the alert went out and 240 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2026-03-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 36 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2026-03-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 611 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
36 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-798 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1297 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
611 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
832 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 15, 1:33 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBond, Calhoun, Clinton, Fayette, Greene, Jersey and 9 more6 hr
Mar 15, 3:27 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Franklin, Gallatin, Hamilton, Hardin, Jackson and 8 more93 min
Mar 15, 3:43 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCCass, Champaign, Christian, Clark, Clay, Coles and 23 more5 hr
Mar 15, 3:57 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAlexander, Edwards, Franklin, Gallatin, Hamilton, Hardin and 13 more7 hr
Mar 15, 5:16 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCIroquois, Kankakee59 min
Mar 15, 5:42 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCFord, Iroquois, Kankakee, Livingston6 hr
Mar 15, 5:47 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBond, Champaign, Clark, Clay, Clinton, Coles and 22 more88 min
Mar 15, 6:43 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Massac, Pulaski, Union2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2026Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2026Every mesoscale discussion in 2026

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.