Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
636 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 355 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

 - Warm and moist southerly flow ahead of a front will promote
   strong instability across our region this afternoon into the
   evening with an expanding severe threat during this timeframe.

 - An active weather period is expected through this weekend into
   early next week, including daily severe weather chances across
   much of the region late Saturday and possibly through Monday.

 - Some Uncertainty exists for the middle of next week, but there
   is the potential for an active southwesterly flow pattern to
   develop, keeping rain chances across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

A decaying line of convection from morning storms ahead of a cold
front continues to push southward into Southeast Oklahoma and
Southwest/South-Central Arkansas at this current hour. We are
starting to see some convection reform along this remnant
activity, which could become a concern, as there is a very
unstable atmosphere in place across the region. On the KSHV 18z
sounding, mid-level lapse rates were over 8 C/km, with Sfc based
CAPE over 2500 J/Kg. There is also sufficient 0-1 km SRH over the
area along with 40 kt of Deep layer shear. In addition to this,
the aforementioned cold front continues to slowly push
southeastward across Central Oklahoma towards our area. Strong to
severe convection has already started to fire along that boundary.
Because of these concerns, the Storm Prediction Center has issued
a Tornado Watch through 9 PM for Southeast Oklahoma, Northeast
Texas, and adjacent SW Arkansas. This area generally covers our
I-30 corridor, but remains north of I-20. An additional watch is
probable downstream later today, as convection is expected to form
into a MCS and push south into the region during the evening
hours. All modes of severe weather will be in play, including hail
over 2" and a isolated tornado or two of at least EF2 strength.
The front is expected to stall near the Arkansas/Louisiana border,
back across East Texas near the I-30 corridor. Convection is
expected to diminish overnight, but it's not out of the question
to see some additional convection during the late morning and
early afternoon hours along the stalled front or remnant mesoscale
boundaries. However, Saturday night is where we expect our next
round of severe convection. The front is expected to lift
northward during the afternoon hours. Additional convection is
expected to form along the lifting front, eventually forming into
a cluster of storms. This cluster is expected to shift
southeastward back into our forecast area during the late evening
hours and predawn hours on Sunday. A very unstable atmosphere will
still be in place over the region, so all modes of severe weather
should be in play again.

We may see a brief quiet period starting on Sunday afternoon as
weak upper ridging tries to build over the area. But, another
front will move into the region on Monday, bringing another round
of convection. We can't rule out some additional strong to severe
thunderstorms with this system. Beyond Monday, uncertainty remains
in the forecast. Long-term models continue to hint at upper
ridging over the region, but the location of the ridge will play a
vital role in our weather conditions. If the center of the ridge
settles across the Central Gulf, it would essentially put our
forecast zones in a potentially active southwest flow pattern,
with rain chances remaining across the region. However, if the
ridge is farther north, we would see drier conditions over the
area. Please continue to monitor the forecast for updates. /20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

For the 25/00Z TAFs, showers and thunderstorms are impacting
ArkLaTex airspace from several directions. Across southwest
Arkansas and north central Louisiana, scattered storms are
bringing periods of heavy rain and gusty winds to KELD and KMLU.
Meanwhile, a line of strong thunderstorms is moving southeast out
of Oklahoma, and will bring impacts to the ArkLaTex through the
evening hours, particularly along and north of I-20 from KTXK to
KSHV and east into Louisiana and southwest Arkansas. These storms
are expected to clear out of the region overnight, followed by
CIGs dropping to MVFR and IFR levels by daybreak. VSBY reductions
are also possible, but confidence in winds calming sufficiently
is not yet high enough to prevail. South winds will become
variable in the vicinity of intensifying storms, with locally
gusty conditions in excess of 30 kts expected. Light and variable
winds will resume in the wake of these storms, at max sustained
speeds of 5 to 10 kts late in this forecast period.

/26/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 355 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Spotter activation will likely be needed on this afternoon into
late tonight, and may be necessary at times during this weekend.

/20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  87  67  88 /  70  10  60  30
MLU  64  86  66  86 /  70  30  50  50
DEQ  59  81  61  81 /  50  20  80  40
TXK  64  84  66  84 /  70  20  80  40
ELD  60  81  61  83 /  70  20  70  40
TYR  68  88  69  88 /  60  10  40  10
GGG  66  88  67  88 /  70  10  50  20
LFK  69  89  69  90 /  40  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...26

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