Flash Flood Warning 44, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
651 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

 - A stationary front will allow for continued rounds of
   thunderstorms overnight, early Tuesday and potentially
   lingering with daytime heating over the same areas.

 - The Flood Watch is in effect for the overnight hours and for
   Tuesday for much of the ArkLaTex north of I-20 until 3 PM.

 - Temperatures will climb into the mid 90s by late week into the
   weekend possibly prompting Heat Advisory headlines each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Northeast winds across Oklahoma and Arkansas have pinned a now
stationary frontal boundary along the Red River of Oklahoma and
Texas, and then extending eastward right along the Arkansas and
Louisiana state line. We have seen a continued train of showers
and thunderstorms, some heavy briefly with confirmed 1 to 2 inch
amounts of additional rainfall this evening and more to come
overnight. So keep a NOAA WX Radio on duty overnight for any
Warnings. The previously issued Flood Watch has been extended for
a few northern most counties including McCurtain, Sevier and
Howard. In addition, as the front will be lifting back northward
on Tuesday, and we have cleared the southern row of counties and
parishes from the Watch.

This new Flood Watch area has also been extended in time until
Tuesday mid afternoon. We continue with high chance to likely PoPs
for the watch area with more heavy downpours expected, due to
slow and persistent light NW flow aloft. Our evening balloon
sounding continues to show high water content with our PWAT over
2 inches. The WPC continues their Slight Risk for excessive
rainfall overnight, then dipping down into NE TX for Tuesday
before slowly lifting out the Marginal Risk out of our area late
week. Also of note, our surface CAPE remain in the 3-4k J/kg
range with our DCAPE over 1000 J/Kg with a Marginal severe threat
from damaging winds. The SPC concurs with a Marginal Risk
overnight north of I-20 in NE TX into SE OK and S AR and along
and south of I-20 in LA. The day 2 indicates this risk will be
shifting northward by around daybreak.

Heating will allow additional convection to fire along the remaining
cool pool area and lingering outflow boundaries. Otherwise, it
will coolest, but still quite warm under the rain clouds across
our north, while areas south of I-20 will be bordering on hot
again with lower 90s and Heat index values right around the 105
degrees threshold. One thing is for sure, when this front lifts
back northward in the afternoon as the upper ridge over New
Mexico soars to 597dam by late tomorrow, we will be seeing those
hotter temps areawide with likely Heat Advisory headlines going
forward into the weekend and early next week. The model forecast
temperatures will see widespread mid to upper 90s and until we dry
out again, a Excessive Heat Warning may be required for the most
humid areas. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Low MVFR cigs have developed across much of E TX this morning,
with cigs mostly scoured out over SW AR and much of N LA where
deep convection moved through earlier. However, this may be
short-lived as additional IFR/low MVFR cigs develop by mid-morning
over these areas, with cigs slowly lifting/becoming VFR by
midday/early afternoon. Meanwhile, a NW to SE line of deep
convection ongoing along a stalled sfc bndry extending from near
the Red River of SE OK SE to just W of TXK then S along the TX/LA
border will persist through at least mid-morning before gradually
diminishing as additional convection development focuses farther
W, but still may impact the TXK/SHV terminals through mid/late
morning before ending. Elsewhere, the remaining terminals should
remain mostly dry, although the presence of this bndry may focus
additional isolated to scattered convection late this afternoon
through tonight, although low confidence in the timing and
location uncertainties remains too low to include VCTS in the TAFs
attm. Could see the return of low MVFR or IFR cigs to portions of
Lower E TX/N LA by the end of the TAF period, with cigs more
likely to fill in briefly after daybreak Wednesday before lifting.
S winds 5-10kts today, except VRB around 5kts across SW AR will
become light S or Lt/Vrb after 00Z. /15/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 651 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Spotter activation may be needed through at least early this
afternoon for the potential of heavy rain and flash flooding
across the northern half of our Four State Region. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  77  92  76 /  40  20  10  10
MLU  90  75  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
DEQ  85  71  88  72 /  50  40  40  10
TXK  89  74  91  75 /  50  40  30  10
ELD  86  72  88  72 /  50  50  50  10
TYR  93  77  94  74 /  10  20   0   0
GGG  93  76  93  74 /  30  20  10   0
LFK  95  76  95  73 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Flood Watch until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     019-021.

OK...Flood Watch until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-138.

&&

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...15

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