Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
701 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal to slight risk for severe storms this evening and
  night. The highest chances for severe storms are along and
  northwest of a Branson to Rolla Missouri Line. Damaging winds
  are the most likely hazard with a line of thunderstorms.

- Cooler temperatures will occur behind the front this weekend
  into early next week, as lows in the 30s are expected Sunday
  and Monday mornings. These colder temperatures could lead to
  the potential for frost to form if winds are light.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Analysis:

The Missouri Ozarks is currently under southwesterly flow aloft
as an upper level closed Low over the northern Plains continues
to make its way east/northeast towards the Great Lakes region.
As a result, low to mid level clouds have increased over the
area with cloud bases generally down to/around 3000-4500 feet.
As the afternoon progresses, we may see a few brief breaks in
the clouds, however they're expected to continue to generally
increase as the system approaches the area even further. Warm,
moist air has been advected into the region, with temperature
observations so far (as of 1PM) ranging in the 70s. Temps should
continue to increase slightly for locations that haven't
reached peak heating, with highs maxing out in the upper 70s to
low 80s.

Gusty Winds Today:

With the upper level trough pushing through the central CONUS today,
a tightened pressure gradient has led to gusty southerly winds
already today, which is expected to continue through at least
tonight. Observations across the area during the morning and early
afternoon hours have shown sustained winds between 10-15mph gusting
up to 25-35mph (and sporadic gusts up to 40mph) primarily along/west
of Highway 65 (with the higher observed gusts west of I-49). NBM
probabilities of wind gusts >30mph show high probabilities (70-90%)
for areas west of Highway 65 through 6PM before winds begin to
diminish below 20-25mph. Regarding higher gusts, probabilities of
gusts >=40mph remain at 30-40% until 2-3pm before probabilities
drop below 15%.

Slight Risk for Severe Weather:

As the upper level system continues to trek towards the Great Lakes
region, an associated surface low currently situated over
Southeast NE/northwest MO will drag a cold front through the
area later this evening into the overnight hours, bringing
strong to severe thunderstorms across the area. There's three
differing situations with varying confidence levels outlined
below:

Low Confidence Scenario #1: CAMs have been fairly consistent with
showers/thunderstorms developing out ahead of the front. There
remains the question of what storm mode these will be. Current
thinking is that they'll just pose a sub-severe to marginally
severe risk, with hail up to quarters, brief gusts up to 60mph,
and frequent lightning as the highest-potential hazards.
However, there's a low- end chance that these could take a
supercellular mode, which would lead to more of the large hail
potential (up to 2 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes to be
possible. This is the less likely scenario, but it at least
deserved a mention.

Low Confidence Scenario #2: Another low confidence scenario takes
storm initiation outside of our area into account. Further northwest
near the surface low, storms are expected to develop, with scattered
storms developing along the warm front to our north. This would
bring the potential for a few supercells to develop to our north
over northern MO/southern IA. The low confidence scenario would be
supercells developing out ahead of the cold front before congealing
together to form the line segment. Looking at forecast soundings,
there's sufficient CAPE (SBCAPE >1500 J/kg) decent shear (0-1km
shear ~35kts; 0-6km shear: 30-40kts), mid-level lapse rates >7.0
C/km, and a backing wind profile. Regarding the wind profile, if
there were more of a southeasterly surface wind component that may
contribute to slightly higher confidence in this scenario. But
regardless, if this scenario comes to fruition, the supercellular
storm mode would bring the potential for large hail up to 2 inches
and a few tornadoes for areas generally northwest of I-44 and
west of Highway 65. The SPC late-morning update highlighted this
potential by extending the hatched hail risk further to the
southwest. Again, this is another less- likely scenario.

Higher Confidence Scenario: The more likely scenario is the main
area of strong to severe thunderstorms focusing on the line that
pushes through along the cold front later this evening and
overnight. With the ample shear in the atmosphere leading to
potential bowing segments, damaging wind gusts up to 60-70mph
look to be the primary hazard, with small hail (generally below
severe limits, but isolated up to quarter size) and frequent
lightning. With the 0-3km shear between 30-35kts vectorized
towards the northeast, there's also the potential for quick
spin-up tornadoes within the line. Timing for this line looks to
push into our northwest counties no earlier than 6pm (between
6-8pm), pushing east/southeast before exiting our southeast
counties by sunrise.

Heavy Rainfall and Flooding Potential:

As the previous discussion mentioned, flooding isn't a huge concern
with this activity, as the line is expected to push through fairly
progressively. That being said, WPC has outlined a large portion of
our area (generally west of Highway 63) in a Slight Risk for
excessive rainfall. Flow will be nearly parallel to the front, which
could pose a risk of localized training and hence, localized
flooding. Comparing the 12Z HREF LPMM run to the previous 00Z run,
rainfall amounts have decreased, with widespread rainfall amounts
between 0.5 to 1.0 inches, and localized amounts of 1 to 2 inches
(the previous run had localized amounts of 2-3 inches - so a slight
decrease in amounts).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Cooler Temperatures and Frost Potential:

Behind the cold front that pushes through later this
evening/tonight, winds will shift out of the northwest (with
northwesterly flow aloft) and usher in much cooler temperatures
to the area. The interquartile spread shows only a 4-degree
difference between the 25th and 75th percentiles on Saturday,
leading to fairly good confidence in afternoon highs ranging in
the upper 50s to low 60s. This would be near to below normal for
this time of year, as the normal highs range between 64-66
degrees at our four climate sites. These more seasonable
temperatures will continue into next week, with daily highs in
the 60s, reaching the low 70s over south/southwest MO early next
week.

Overnight lows are expected to dip down into the mid to upper
30s Saturday night through Monday night. Coupled with light
overnight winds, this will lead to the potential for frost
development, especially in the typical cold valleys/eastern
Ozarks.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

A cold front is marching eastward across Kansas towards the
Ozarks, with thunderstorms developing along the front this
evening. Gusty 20-30kt southerly winds will turn westerly then
northwesterly behind the front as it passes. Cigs drop with the
front into MVFR to IFR conditions at times, with visibility also
reduced to as low as 1 mile at times within areas of heavy rain.
Thunderstorms could be strong to severe, with very strong winds
and small hail possible within the strongest cells.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Camden

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
138 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-041845-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
138 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Slight tornado risk.
  Slight hail risk.
  Slight thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive rainfall risk
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

Southerly wind gusts of 25 to 40 mph will continue to occur
this afternoon before slightly diminishing this evening/tonight.

There is a slight risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe storms this
evening and tonight. A line of storms looks to move through during
the evening and overnight hours with the potential for damaging
winds and brief tornadoes as the primary threats. Localized flash
flooding will also be possible. Lower confidence hazards include
large hail between 1-2 inches in diameter.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Cold temperatures could promote frost development Sunday and
Monday mornings if winds stay light.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening and tonight for the
entire area.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Melto

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1009 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

MOZ066-067-078-040345-
Vernon MO-Cedar MO-St. Clair MO-
1009 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CEDAR...CENTRAL ST. CLAIR AND
EASTERN VERNON COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 PM CDT...

At 1009 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Schell City to near El Dorado Springs to 8
miles east of Sheldon. Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Stockton Lake, El Dorado Springs, Stockton, Osceola, Montevallo,
Schell City, Collins, Roscoe, Vista, Harwood, Olympia, Caplinger
Mills, Wagoner, Arnica, Tiffin, Johnson City, Taberville, Filley,
Cedar Springs, and Monegaw Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
southwestern and west central Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3791 9358 3768 9368 3762 9407 3764 9408
      3764 9418 3781 9417 3805 9430 3805 9424
      3802 9423 3805 9421 3806 9413 3804 9411
      3805 9410 3803 9406 3811 9405 3816 9382
TIME...MOT...LOC 0309Z 251DEG 38KT 3800 9416 3780 9401 3762 9414

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Price

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1028 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

MOZ077-078-088-089-094-040400-
Cedar MO-Barton MO-Jasper MO-Dade MO-Lawrence MO-
1028 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN BARTON...SOUTHERN
CEDAR...NORTHERN LAWRENCE...JASPER AND DADE COUNTIES THROUGH 1100 PM
CDT...

At 1028 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles east of Sheldon to 6 miles northwest of
Golden City to 7 miles north of Sarcoxie. Movement was east at 45
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Joplin, Carthage, Webb City, Stockton Lake, Stockton State Park, Carl
Junction, Lamar, Oronogo, Carterville, Greenfield, Lockwood, Jasper,
Golden City, Miller, Airport Drive, Alba, Purcell, Everton, Carytown,
and Fidelity.

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 19 and 23.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
southeastern Kansas...and southwestern Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3728 9462 3746 9435 3758 9434 3769 9368
      3724 9366 3708 9423 3710 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0328Z 257DEG 39KT 3768 9418 3748 9415 3717 9413

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Price

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1033 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

MOZ055-067-068-078-079-040415-
Cedar MO-Polk MO-Benton MO-Hickory MO-St. Clair MO-
1033 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT HICKORY...NORTHEASTERN CEDAR...
SOUTHWESTERN BENTON...NORTHWESTERN POLK AND EASTERN ST. CLAIR
COUNTIES THROUGH 1115 PM CDT...

At 1033 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Lowry City to 7 miles south of Osceola to
7 miles northwest of Humansville to Stockton. Movement was east at 45
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pomme de Terre Lake, Truman State Park, Pomme De Terre State Park,
Truman Lake, Stockton Lake, Warsaw, Stockton, Pittsburg, Humansville,
Osceola, Lowry City, Hermitage, Weaubleau, Wheatland, Preston, Cross
Timbers, Collins, Flemington, Vista, and Gerster.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
central, southwestern and west central Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3835 9331 3805 9311 3778 9323 3767 9380
      3793 9378 3818 9388 3821 9378 3820 9356
      3822 9357 3822 9356 3821 9353 3829 9352
TIME...MOT...LOC 0333Z 250DEG 41KT 3815 9383 3793 9370 3786 9369 3769
9378

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Price

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1102 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

MOZ055-040430-
Benton MO-
1102 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BENTON COUNTY
THROUGH 1130 PM CDT...

At 1101 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Calhoun, or 8 miles south of Windsor, moving
northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Truman Lake, Lincoln, Ionia, Brandon, Palo Pinto, and Racket.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3838 9320 3828 9352 3837 9352 3851 9351
      3851 9330 3852 9329
TIME...MOT...LOC 0401Z 240DEG 42KT 3841 9351

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Price