Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Springfield, MO

534 
WWUS53 KSGF 040247
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
947 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

KSC021-037-MOC011-097-040315-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-260404T0315Z/
Cherokee KS-Crawford KS-Barton MO-Jasper MO-
947 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE...SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD...SOUTHWESTERN
BARTON AND NORTHWESTERN JASPER COUNTIES...

At 946 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Cherokee to near Weir to 8 miles east of Scammon
to near Columbus, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Pittsburg, Carl Junction, Frontenac, Columbus, Cherokee, Weir,
Scammon, Chicopee, Nashville, Mindenmines, Asbury, Waco, Roseland,
Opolis, Lawton, Carona, Skidmore, Crestline, and Stippville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3746 9468 3752 9432 3716 9453 3709 9496
      3727 9489 3736 9493
TIME...MOT...LOC 0246Z 270DEG 44KT 3740 9480 3732 9469 3725 9468 3716
9481

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Price

515 
WWUS53 KSGF 040257
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
957 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

KSC021-037-MOC011-097-040315-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-260404T0315Z/
Cherokee KS-Crawford KS-Barton MO-Jasper MO-
957 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE...SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD...SOUTHWESTERN
BARTON AND NORTHWESTERN JASPER COUNTIES...

At 957 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Frontenac to 6 miles south of Mindenmines to 7
miles northwest of Purcell to 7 miles northwest of Carl Junction,
moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Pittsburg, Frontenac, Chicopee, Nashville, Mindenmines, Asbury, Waco,
Opolis, and Lawton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3746 9468 3752 9432 3725 9448 3719 9474
      3734 9473 3742 9478
TIME...MOT...LOC 0257Z 270DEG 44KT 3746 9465 3738 9454 3731 9454 3722
9467

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Price

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
701 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal to slight risk for severe storms this evening and
  night. The highest chances for severe storms are along and
  northwest of a Branson to Rolla Missouri Line. Damaging winds
  are the most likely hazard with a line of thunderstorms.

- Cooler temperatures will occur behind the front this weekend
  into early next week, as lows in the 30s are expected Sunday
  and Monday mornings. These colder temperatures could lead to
  the potential for frost to form if winds are light.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Analysis:

The Missouri Ozarks is currently under southwesterly flow aloft
as an upper level closed Low over the northern Plains continues
to make its way east/northeast towards the Great Lakes region.
As a result, low to mid level clouds have increased over the
area with cloud bases generally down to/around 3000-4500 feet.
As the afternoon progresses, we may see a few brief breaks in
the clouds, however they're expected to continue to generally
increase as the system approaches the area even further. Warm,
moist air has been advected into the region, with temperature
observations so far (as of 1PM) ranging in the 70s. Temps should
continue to increase slightly for locations that haven't
reached peak heating, with highs maxing out in the upper 70s to
low 80s.

Gusty Winds Today:

With the upper level trough pushing through the central CONUS today,
a tightened pressure gradient has led to gusty southerly winds
already today, which is expected to continue through at least
tonight. Observations across the area during the morning and early
afternoon hours have shown sustained winds between 10-15mph gusting
up to 25-35mph (and sporadic gusts up to 40mph) primarily along/west
of Highway 65 (with the higher observed gusts west of I-49). NBM
probabilities of wind gusts >30mph show high probabilities (70-90%)
for areas west of Highway 65 through 6PM before winds begin to
diminish below 20-25mph. Regarding higher gusts, probabilities of
gusts >=40mph remain at 30-40% until 2-3pm before probabilities
drop below 15%.

Slight Risk for Severe Weather:

As the upper level system continues to trek towards the Great Lakes
region, an associated surface low currently situated over
Southeast NE/northwest MO will drag a cold front through the
area later this evening into the overnight hours, bringing
strong to severe thunderstorms across the area. There's three
differing situations with varying confidence levels outlined
below:

Low Confidence Scenario #1: CAMs have been fairly consistent with
showers/thunderstorms developing out ahead of the front. There
remains the question of what storm mode these will be. Current
thinking is that they'll just pose a sub-severe to marginally
severe risk, with hail up to quarters, brief gusts up to 60mph,
and frequent lightning as the highest-potential hazards.
However, there's a low- end chance that these could take a
supercellular mode, which would lead to more of the large hail
potential (up to 2 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes to be
possible. This is the less likely scenario, but it at least
deserved a mention.

Low Confidence Scenario #2: Another low confidence scenario takes
storm initiation outside of our area into account. Further northwest
near the surface low, storms are expected to develop, with scattered
storms developing along the warm front to our north. This would
bring the potential for a few supercells to develop to our north
over northern MO/southern IA. The low confidence scenario would be
supercells developing out ahead of the cold front before congealing
together to form the line segment. Looking at forecast soundings,
there's sufficient CAPE (SBCAPE >1500 J/kg) decent shear (0-1km
shear ~35kts; 0-6km shear: 30-40kts), mid-level lapse rates >7.0
C/km, and a backing wind profile. Regarding the wind profile, if
there were more of a southeasterly surface wind component that may
contribute to slightly higher confidence in this scenario. But
regardless, if this scenario comes to fruition, the supercellular
storm mode would bring the potential for large hail up to 2 inches
and a few tornadoes for areas generally northwest of I-44 and
west of Highway 65. The SPC late-morning update highlighted this
potential by extending the hatched hail risk further to the
southwest. Again, this is another less- likely scenario.

Higher Confidence Scenario: The more likely scenario is the main
area of strong to severe thunderstorms focusing on the line that
pushes through along the cold front later this evening and
overnight. With the ample shear in the atmosphere leading to
potential bowing segments, damaging wind gusts up to 60-70mph
look to be the primary hazard, with small hail (generally below
severe limits, but isolated up to quarter size) and frequent
lightning. With the 0-3km shear between 30-35kts vectorized
towards the northeast, there's also the potential for quick
spin-up tornadoes within the line. Timing for this line looks to
push into our northwest counties no earlier than 6pm (between
6-8pm), pushing east/southeast before exiting our southeast
counties by sunrise.

Heavy Rainfall and Flooding Potential:

As the previous discussion mentioned, flooding isn't a huge concern
with this activity, as the line is expected to push through fairly
progressively. That being said, WPC has outlined a large portion of
our area (generally west of Highway 63) in a Slight Risk for
excessive rainfall. Flow will be nearly parallel to the front, which
could pose a risk of localized training and hence, localized
flooding. Comparing the 12Z HREF LPMM run to the previous 00Z run,
rainfall amounts have decreased, with widespread rainfall amounts
between 0.5 to 1.0 inches, and localized amounts of 1 to 2 inches
(the previous run had localized amounts of 2-3 inches - so a slight
decrease in amounts).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Cooler Temperatures and Frost Potential:

Behind the cold front that pushes through later this
evening/tonight, winds will shift out of the northwest (with
northwesterly flow aloft) and usher in much cooler temperatures
to the area. The interquartile spread shows only a 4-degree
difference between the 25th and 75th percentiles on Saturday,
leading to fairly good confidence in afternoon highs ranging in
the upper 50s to low 60s. This would be near to below normal for
this time of year, as the normal highs range between 64-66
degrees at our four climate sites. These more seasonable
temperatures will continue into next week, with daily highs in
the 60s, reaching the low 70s over south/southwest MO early next
week.

Overnight lows are expected to dip down into the mid to upper
30s Saturday night through Monday night. Coupled with light
overnight winds, this will lead to the potential for frost
development, especially in the typical cold valleys/eastern
Ozarks.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

A cold front is marching eastward across Kansas towards the
Ozarks, with thunderstorms developing along the front this
evening. Gusty 20-30kt southerly winds will turn westerly then
northwesterly behind the front as it passes. Cigs drop with the
front into MVFR to IFR conditions at times, with visibility also
reduced to as low as 1 mile at times within areas of heavy rain.
Thunderstorms could be strong to severe, with very strong winds
and small hail possible within the strongest cells.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Camden

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
138 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-041845-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
138 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Slight tornado risk.
  Slight hail risk.
  Slight thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive rainfall risk
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

Southerly wind gusts of 25 to 40 mph will continue to occur
this afternoon before slightly diminishing this evening/tonight.

There is a slight risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe storms this
evening and tonight. A line of storms looks to move through during
the evening and overnight hours with the potential for damaging
winds and brief tornadoes as the primary threats. Localized flash
flooding will also be possible. Lower confidence hazards include
large hail between 1-2 inches in diameter.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Cold temperatures could promote frost development Sunday and
Monday mornings if winds stay light.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening and tonight for the
entire area.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Melto

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
835 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

KSZ073-097-101-040200-
Cherokee KS-Crawford KS-Bourbon KS-
835 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN BOURBON...NORTHERN
CHEROKEE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM CDT...

At 835 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles northwest of Walnut to near St. Paul to
near Mound Valley. Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pittsburg, Fort Scott, Frontenac, Girard, Arma, Marmaton, Cherokee,
Weir, Sherman, Mulberry, Chicopee, Mccune, Franklin, Arcadia, Walnut,
West Mineral, Redfield, Hepler, Beulah, and Croweburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southeastern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3777 9509 3795 9462 3732 9462 3725 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 0135Z 242DEG 38KT 3767 9518 3744 9515 3725 9534

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Price

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
859 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

KSZ073-097-MOZ066-077-040230-
Crawford KS-Bourbon KS-Vernon MO-Barton MO-
859 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN BOURBON...CRAWFORD...
NORTHWESTERN BARTON AND SOUTHWESTERN VERNON COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM
CDT...

At 859 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles south of Redfield to near Hepler to 7
miles northwest of Arma to Girard to near Mccune. Movement was east
at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pittsburg, Prairie State Park, Fort Scott, Frontenac, Girard, Arma,
Marmaton, Liberal, Mulberry, Mccune, Mindenmines, Franklin, Arcadia,
Bronaugh, Walnut, Redfield, Hepler, Moundville, Richards, and
Deerfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southeastern Kansas...and southwestern and west central Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3778 9509 3798 9454 3771 9443 3744 9456
      3734 9501 3734 9507 3738 9507 3739 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 0159Z 251DEG 39KT 3774 9492 3766 9493 3761 9482 3750
9482 3740 9494

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Price

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
918 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

MOZ093-101-040245-
Newton MO-McDonald MO-
918 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN NEWTON AND NORTHWESTERN
MCDONALD COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM CDT...

At 918 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Baxter Springs to near Seneca to near
Honey Creek State Park. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Southeastern Joplin, Neosho, Seneca, Anderson, Duquesne, Goodman,
Loma Linda, Leawood, Silver Creek, Lanagan, Shoal Creek Drive,
Saginaw, Redings Mill, Cayuga, Grand Falls Plaza, Shoal Creek
Estates, Dennis Acres, Cliff Village, Tiff City, and Racine.

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 1 and 9.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southwestern Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3691 9462 3702 9461 3706 9446 3705 9441
      3662 9434 3660 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0218Z 233DEG 31KT 3699 9476 3685 9468 3658 9484

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Price

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
920 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

KSZ097-101-MOZ088-040245-
Cherokee KS-Crawford KS-Jasper MO-
920 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CHEROKEE...SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD
AND WESTERN JASPER COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM CDT...

At 920 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles southwest of Mccune to near Oswego to
near Chetopa. Movement was northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Joplin, Pittsburg, Webb City, Carl Junction, Baxter Springs,
Columbus, Galena, Duquesne, Cherokee, Airport Drive, Weir, Lowell,
Sherman, Scammon, Chicopee, Mccune, Asbury, West Mineral, Treece, and
Waco.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southeastern Kansas...and southwestern Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3734 9507 3743 9462 3737 9462 3736 9454
      3706 9446 3705 9449 3706 9461 3702 9462
      3699 9470 3700 9507
TIME...MOT...LOC 0220Z 246DEG 46KT 3726 9508 3714 9502 3697 9507

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Price