Severe Thunderstorm Warning 321, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
629 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM as heat index
  values warm to around 100 to 105 degrees. Those with outdoor
  plans to celebrate the holiday should make efforts to have
  cooling and hydration options readily available.

- Thunderstorm chances increase this afternoon and evening.
  Highest chances for severe storms are west of Highway 65.
  Damaging winds are the most likely hazard along with lightning
  and localized flash flooding. Those outdoors will need to be
  weather aware this afternoon and evening.

- Additional storm chances (20-50%) will be possible across the
  area at times from Sunday into the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper
air analysis shows a broad zonal type flow over the area with
embedded shortwaves moving through. A surface front/trough was
draped across Kansas into Missouri where an ongoing MCS was
tracking through the Highway 54 corridor. Along and south of
Highway 54, the airmass was strongly unstable with ML CAPES
around 2500j/kg however wind shear was weak, around 20kts. It
was very humid with temps approaching 90 and dews in the middle
70s. Satellite imagery also showed a outflow boundary just south
of the MCS that was moving through southeast Kansas, towards the
area. There was an expansive cumulus field developing across the
area given the moisture and instability.

Thunderstorm Potential through Tonight: Short term guidance has
struggled with the current MCS over the Highway 54 corridor of
west central Missouri. The RRFS is doing a little better and
with the activity however it was a tad north.Given the
favorable instability environment we expect this cluster of
storms to continue moving east along Highway 54 this afternoon
and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for this region
until 7pm for damaging wind potential.

Other storms, more isolated/pulse in nature may also form either
along or ahead of the outflow boundary across the rest of the
area. Decreasing inhibition, high PW and high thetaE Diffs
suggest the potential for localized damaging downburst winds
with any storms this afternoon across the area however locations
east of Springfield might have a little better pulse environment.
There are numerous outdoor events and activities therefore stay
weather aware this afternoon. Hot conditions will continues and
the Heat Advisory remains in effect.

This Evening/Tonight: The ongoing complex moving through north
of Springfield as well as additional afternoon pop ups cast
greater uncertainty on severe potential for this evening and
tonight. Earlier day guidance showed severe storms developing
this evening northwest of the area and moving in as additional
energy moves in and interacts with the instability and remaining
boundaries. One scenario we are starting to see play out is that
once this cluster of storms moves through, there may be some
subsidence which would cause a lull/break in storm potential
this evening. However this may only be temporary as other storms
refire in southern Kansas. It is these storms in Kansas that
will likely move east/southeast back into the area tonight.
Damaging winds are the most likely hazard with these storms,
especially along and west of I-49. There is a localized flash
flood risk tonight if storms move over the same areas. The 12z
HREF LPMM does show localized pockets of 2-3 inches.

Additional updates are likely as storm expectations become more
clear this afternoon and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

The overall pattern becomes a little more northwesterly going
forward into next week. This will allow for additional energy to
move in and keep precip chances going. For Sunday, currently
have 20-50 pops going given scattered storm expectations.
The area looks to stay on the northeast periphery of a
developing mid level ridge across the southwest US. This could
allow for additional off and on rain chances through the week
however higher chances exist later in the week. Temps look to be
a little cooler than previous days with highs in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will move through the area throughout
the period, becoming prevailing around 06Z. Thunderstorms may
result in temporary CIG/VIS reductions, but in general,
conditions will largely remain VFR. Winds will continue to be
light and variable before becoming light out of the northwest
around 15Z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Nelson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
751 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-060100-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
751 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Marginal hail risk.
  Enhanced thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Limited excessive heat risk.
  Elevated excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

The heat advisory has been allowed to expire, though temperatures
tonight may still feel a bit uncomfortable.

Severe storms have formed in northern Oklahoma and are expected to
impact southwestern Missouri and southeast Kansas tonight. The
most likely threats with these storms are lightning and damaging
winds. These storms will also be capable of causing heavy
rainfall and flooding concerns, especially where repeated rounds
of heavy rainfall bring 2 or more inches of rain within 1-3 hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Additional storm chances (20-50%) will be possible across the
area at times from Sunday into the middle of next week. Advisory-
level heat may return again late next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed in southwest Missouri and
southeast Kansas tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Nelson

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
435 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 S Olean               38.38N 92.52W
07/04/2026                   Miller             MO   Public

            Large tree branches broken off tree. Trees
            fallen. Via social media pics. Time based on
            radar.

&&

TEO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
438 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 WSW Waynesville       37.82N 92.22W
07/04/2026                   Pulaski            MO   Public

            Via social media. Uprooted trees and big
            tree totally snapped in half.

&&

TEO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
503 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 ESE Sunrise Beach     38.16N 92.74W
07/04/2026                   Camden             MO   Public

            LASS report and video of trees down and 70
            mph winds estimated.

&&

TEO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
640 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 ESE Rolla             37.94N 91.74W
07/04/2026                   Phelps             MO   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Transmission pole damage.

&&

TEO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
642 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 S Rolla               37.93N 91.78W
07/04/2026                   Phelps             MO   911 Call Center

            Rolla had multiple calls of wires down trees
            down on power lines, and trees and limbs
            down on houses. One large tree down fell on
            top of a house on South Cedar Street. Our
            Command Post sustained significant damage at
            the carnival. We had one structure fire from
            a lightning strike.

&&

TEO