Severe Thunderstorm Warning 301, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
153 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal (Level 1 of 5) to Slight (Level 2 of 5) Risk for
  severe thunderstorms today. Damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph
  will be the main risk.

- Slight (2 of 4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall today. A Flood
  Watch is in effect until 7 PM this evening.

- Hotter conditions are then expected to occur across the area
  Sunday into next week as highs warm into the 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 140 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Synoptic analysis shows an upper level high pressure system to our
southwest over Texas and northern Mexico, with an upper level
shortwave trough over Ontario/Quebec through the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley regions. This has allowed the area to experience zonal
flow, with an upper level disturbance continuing to make its way
through the area during the early morning hours. At the surface, a
surface low is currently situated over southern Kansas, with a
frontal boundary extending northeast into northern MO. As the early
morning hours progress, this low is progged to push east-northeast
into the area, with a quasi-stationary front continuing through the
morning and into the afternoon hours.

Taking a look at the Dual-Pol storm total precipitation estimates
from the past 24 hours (which seems to match observations
fairly well), so far the area has received widespread amounts of
0.25-1.5", with bands of higher rainfall. Portions of Crawford
and Cherokee counties saw 3.0-4.5", with northern Greene county
receiving 2-5" (localized areas just above 5" near Ash Grove).

Current radar as of 1 AM shows remnant pockets of showers and
thunderstorms east of Highway 65, with additional showers and storms
pushing in from the northwest into areas north of I-44. The
atmosphere has been pretty worked over in areas that received the
heaviest rainfall, leading to MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg lowering the
rainfall rates for the stratiform showers and thunderstorms moving
in from central KS and west-central MO. Currently seeing rainfall
rates of 0.5-1.0" per hour with that activity. Towards southeast KS,
more elevated storms are beginning to push into the southwest CWA
into an area with better instability (this area received less
rainfall earlier, so the atmosphere is less worked-over). CAMs show
these showers and storms continuing to push east through the area
during the remainder of the morning hours.

Storms Redeveloping This Afternoon:

The previous thunderstorm activity from yesterday evening and this
morning will aid in sparking redevelopment later this afternoon.
Additionally, a 25-35kt LLJ will continue over the area, with
dewpoints in the 70s providing sufficient moisture and lift, as well
as 1250-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE. Shear looks to be fairly weak,
generally between 20-30kts, so developing storms should be
multicellular in nature (as opposed to supercellular or a more
organized line). Current High-res guidance suggests these storms
developing along the frontal boundary, generally along I-44 before
pushing southeast. Damaging winds up to 60mph will be the primary
threat, however IF storms can become more surface based, then a
lower-end risk of a tornado or two couldn't be fully ruled out.

With the heavy rainfall experienced over the past 24 hours and
the additional rainfall expected through today, the Flood Watch
remains in effect for the entire area until 7PM this evening.

Saturday:

Thunderstorm development on Saturday remains a question as midlevel
heights begin to rise with a building upper level ridge. Remnant
showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the morning hours,
but this activity is expected to weaken as it pushes east and out of
the area. A weak MCV pushing in from the High Plains could spark
additional development in the afternoon, bringing a very conditional
chance for a supercell or two to develop. If this can occur, all
modes of severe weather would be possible, however confidence in
this scenario is extremely low at this point. We'll need to monitor
how the atmosphere can recover.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 140 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

An upper level ridge will continue to build over the central
U.S. on Sunday and remain over the area through next week as an
upper level high builds underneath. This ridge will keep the
upper level jet and storm track to the north of the area through
much of next week, therefore no widespread rain chance are
expected into the middle of next week. The upper level high
will be over the area by the middle of next week and a few
afternoon/evening pulse type storms may be possible. Late week
the ensemble model members indicate that the upper level ridge
of high pressure will try to push east some late next week. The
ensemble model members do differ on just how far east the high
moves east as some keep it over the region late next week. If
the ridge can push further east, portions of the area could get
in northwest flow, bringing some rain chances, however confidence
in this is low as several members keep the upper level high
over the area. Some pulse type storms would be possible late
week if the ridge of high pressure remains centered over the
area.

A warmer air mass will advect into the region under the upper level
ridge Sunday through next week. 850mb temperatures will warm into
the lower to middle 20s C. This will allow highs into warm into
the upper 80s to the lower 90s each day, with some middle 90s
possible by the middle of next week as the upper level high moves
over the region. Heat index values will warm into the upper 90s to
around 100 to 105 degrees next week. The Heat Risks for heat-related
impacts for the area based on the forecasted highs show the
area reaching the Moderate to Major category next week. The NBM
temperature range between the ensemble model members is low next
week with a five degree spread from the upper 80s to the middle
90s next week, which leads to higher confidence in hotter
conditions and a dry weather pattern for the region next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
through the entirety of the TAF period, with a few intermittent
breaks throughout. MVFR to LIFR conditions will occur with the
storms, as visibilities drop with the heaviest rainfall. Winds
will become gusty primarily at KSGF and KJLN around 17Z,
diminishing by 00Z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch through this evening for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Melto

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
235 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-270745-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
235 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Marginal hail risk.
  Slight thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Significant excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Marginal (Level 1 of 5) to Slight (Level 2 of 5) Risk for severe
thunderstorms today, as storms are expected to re-develop later
this afternoon. Damaging wind gusts to 60 mph will be the main
risks.

Slight (2 of 4) risk of Excessive Rainfall today. A Flood Watch
remains in effect until 7 PM this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms again on
Saturday, however this threat is low confidence.

Warm temperatures return to start next week with highs
in the lower 90s and heat index values in the lower 100s.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Melto

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
923 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Scammon                 37.28N 94.82W
06/25/2026                   Cherokee           KS   Emergency Mngr

            Powerlines down in Scammon.

&&

MB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1001 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     Flash Flood      3 W Crestline           37.18N 94.76W
06/25/2026                   Cherokee           KS   Emergency Mngr

            10 inches of water over the road on Highway
            160 and NE40th road. A water rescue is
            taking place there.

&&

MB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1004 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0939 PM     Flash Flood      Scammon                 37.28N 94.82W
06/25/2026                   Cherokee           KS   Emergency Mngr

            Roadways with several inches of flowing
            water over road in Scammon.

&&

MB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1009 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     Hail             2 NNE Iron Gates        37.08N 94.54W
06/25/2026  M1.00 Inch       Jasper             MO   Broadcast Media

&&

MB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1010 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1004 PM     Flash Flood      2 NE Carl Junction      37.20N 94.55W
06/25/2026                   Jasper             MO   911 Call Center

            State Highway 96 and County Road 270 south
            to Ivy road in Jasper county is almost
            entirely covered by water.

&&

MB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
232 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

KSZ097-101-260815-
Cherokee KS-Crawford KS-
232 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CHEROKEE AND SOUTHERN CRAWFORD
COUNTIES THROUGH 315 AM CDT...

At 232 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Mccune to 6 miles southwest of West
Mineral to near Chetopa. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Pittsburg, Baxter Springs, Frontenac, Columbus, Galena, Cherokee,
Weir, Lowell, Sherman, Scammon, Chicopee, Mccune, West Mineral,
Treece, Roseland, Neutral, Melrose, Beulah, Riverton, and Yale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3749 9462 3700 9462 3700 9507 3738 9507
      3739 9509 3748 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 0732Z 268DEG 35KT 3736 9507 3720 9498 3704 9515

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Wise