Flash Flood Warning 77, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
250 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight (Level 2 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms this
  afternoon into tonight. Damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will
  be the primary risk.

- Slight (Level 2 of 4) to Moderate (Level 3 of 4) Risk of
  Excessive Rainfall today. A Flood Watch is in effect until 7
  AM Saturday morning.

- Hotter and drier conditions will occur across the area Sunday
  into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Synoptic and Mesoscale Overview:

Surface analysis reveals a low pressure center across eastern
Kansas with a stationary front extending to the east across
northern Missouri and a cold front to the southwest across
southeast Kansas. Visible satellite imagery shows abundant
cloud cover persisting across the region, likely acting to delay
or lessen today's destabilization, but a few peaks across west-
central Missouri are more apparent. Mid-level flow remains
fairly weak, though a belt of moderately enhanced 850 mb flow is
nudging into southern Missouri.

Slight Severe Risk this Afternoon into Tonight:

Scattered storms will initiate in the warm sector across central
and southern Missouri throughout the afternoon with diurnal
heating and the passage of transient mid-level shortwave
impulses. There was a question of how much the cloud cover will
affect destabilization, but a special 18Z balloon launch
suggests ample destablization with minimal surface inhibition.

With sufficient destabilization, a few strong to severe storms
capable of producing damaging straight line winds will be
possible. Forecast 0-3 km theta-e differences are forecast to be
marginal (25-30 deg), so while most storms are expected to be
sub- severe a few gusts of 60 mph may be observed given the
notable lack of CIN. Deep-layer shear will be marginal for
supercell development along an outflow boundary across southwest
and central Missouri, but should they occur, a secondary risk
for hail to the size of ping pong balls and an isolated tornado
will also be possible. Confidence in these secondary hazards
occuring is low at this time. The Storm Prediction Center has
outlined most of the area in a Slight risk.

Areas of Heavy Rainfall and Flooding through Tonight:

Model PWATs are forecast to be quite high (1.9" to 2.2") with
deep moisture convergence south of the aforementioned stationary
front across northern Missouri. Resulting rain rates within the
strongest storms will be quite high as a result, with hourly
rates of 1.5 to 2.5"/hr. Both of the 12Z runs from HREF and REFS
LPMM data depict two distinct pockets of higher rainfall totals:
One across the eastern Ozarks due to training convection this
afternoon and evening, and another across the four corners
region with the potential for overnight convection along a
convergent boundary with MCV potential. Forecast rainfall totals
are generally between 1 to 3 inches, with localized amounts up
to 5 inches as a reasonable high-end scenario. Current thinking
is that the heavy rainfall amounts will not be as widespread as
they were yesterday, but the high-end potential still exists
given the likelihood of very high rainfall rates. The Weather
Prediction Center has outlined an area roughly south of a
Pittsburg, KS to Rolla line in a Moderate risk for excessive
rainfall, with a Slight risk extending across much of the rest
of the area. As a result, the Flood Watch has been extended
areawide until 7 AM Saturday. It's possible locations across
central Missouri will be removed from the watch before then as
their risk ends earlier.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Storms Linger into Saturday:

Hi-res guidance suggests remnant convection associated with an
MCV may linger into Saturday morning, particularly across
southeast Kansas and southern Missouri where a marginal wind
and hail risk may become apparent. This activity will shift east
of Highway 65 and into the eastern Ozarks during the afternoon.

Dry Weather Finally Returns Next Week:

Global ensembles show strong agreement in building a prominent
ridge across the eastern CONUS on Sunday and keeping a fairly
stagnant synoptic pattern in place through the week. This means
warmer and drier conditions overall. Moisture will still be
moderately high, so a few low-end rain chances cannot be totally
ruled out if some weak shortwave disturbance or warm air
advection regime moves through, but these will be the exception
rather than the rule.

NBM percentile data show unusually small interquartile spreads
(2-4 degrees) through next week, indicating high confidence in
the temperature forecast. Highs in the low to mid 90s will be
common, with daily heat indices in the low 100s. This may open
the door to possible heat headlines in future forecast packages.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Widespread MVFR ceilings are being observed across much of
central and western Missouri early this afternoon with scattered
showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. Scattered storms will
develop south of a cold front across central Missouri this
afternoon and evening, slowly sagging south. A few of these
storms could produce heavy downpours reducing visibility to 1 SM
or less. A risk of storms will linger near the MO/AR border
overnight, though confidence in occurrence is lower.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Didio

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
258 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-272000-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
258 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Slight tornado risk.
  Marginal hail risk.
  Slight thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Significant excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Slight (Level 2 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms this
afternoon into tonight. Damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will be
the primary risk.

Slight (Level 2 of 4) to Moderate (Level 3 of 4) Risk of
Excessive Rainfall today. A Flood Watch is in effect until 7 AM
Saturday morning.

Hotter and drier conditions will occur across the area Sunday
into next week.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms again on
Saturday, however this threat is low confidence.

Warm temperatures return to start next week with highs
in the lower 90s and heat index values in the lower 100s.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed today.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Didio

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
510 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

MOZ088-262315-
Jasper MO-
510 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN JASPER COUNTY THROUGH
615 PM CDT...

At 509 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Carl Junction, or 9 miles north of Joplin, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Northern Joplin, Webb City, Carl Junction, Oronogo, Carterville,
Airport Drive, Alba, Purcell, Carytown, Asbury, Neck City, Brooklyn
Heights, and Waco.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3728 9461 3734 9436 3712 9435 3715 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 261DEG 11KT 3721 9455

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Wise

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
542 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

MOZ079-080-262345-
Dallas MO-Polk MO-
542 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL DALLAS AND
NORTHEASTERN POLK COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM CDT...

At 542 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Buffalo, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Buffalo, Halfway, Louisburg, Goodson, Plad, and Pumpkin Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3761 9328 3775 9328 3776 9297 3757 9299
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 275DEG 13KT 3767 9322

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Wise

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
602 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

MOZ096-262345-
Douglas MO-
602 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY
THROUGH 645 PM CDT...

At 602 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ava, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ava, Drury, Vanzant, and Brushyknob.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
south central and southwestern Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 9273 3707 9269 3706 9226 3706 9225
      3687 9229
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 281DEG 14KT 3701 9263

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Wise