Severe Thunderstorm Warning 271, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
624 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms this
  afternoon through tonight. Damaging wind gusts of 70-80 mph
  will be the primary severe risk, with hail and brief tornadoes
  as secondary hazards.

- A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire area through Sunday
  morning. Moderate (Level 3 of 4) risk for Excessive Rainfall
  through tonight due to recent heavy rains, elevated
  streamflows, and saturated soils.

- Active weather returns from mid to late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Synoptic & Mesoscale Overview:

A closed upper-level low was slowly pivoting northeast toward
the Hudson Bay, with the attendant surface cold front extending
south-southwest through the Midwest and into the Plains. A
second, more diffuse front (from morning convection) was draped
across central and eastern Missouri. A remnant outflow boundary
was located across far southern MO and northern AR.

Scattered Storms this Afternoon:

A glance at satellite shows partial clearing across southern
Missouri in the wake of the morning precipitation along with
somewhat agitated cumulus along the aforementioned outflow
boundary across southwest MO and northern AR. Guidance has
wobbled on how much--or even if--convection initiates this
afternoon, but this area (roughly along and south of Highway 60)
will be the location to watch for a scattered severe
thunderstorm risk between 1pm and 5pm. With effective bulk
shear of 30-40+kt and sufficient destabilization (the big
question mark), supercells capable of producing isolated hail
to golf balls and damaging wind gusts. Overall confidence in
occurrence is low.

Enhanced Severe Risk this Evening and Tonight:

The higher confidence severe thunderstorm risk is late this
evening into tonight. Initial supercells are likely to develop
ahead of the cold front in northwest Missouri, northeast Kansas,
and southwest Iowa amidst steep lapse rates, moderate deep-layer
shear, and rich moisture. Upscale growth into clusters and
linear segments is likely as the front pushes southeast into
southwest Missouri and our southeast Kansas counties. If storms
can remain discrete, hail up to golf balls will be possible
along with damaging winds. As storms grow upscale, damaging
winds will be the primary hazard. Bowing segments will be
capable of producing gusts of 70-80 mph. Low-level shear will
initially be modest but increase with time as the low-level jet
increases, so a few tornadoes will also be possible. Storms will
gradually diminish in intensity as they push through southwest
Missouri with waning instability, possibly becoming outflow-
dominant.

Timing: Storm time of arrival has slowed slightly over the last
12 hours. Guidance suggests the leading edge of the
line/clusters reaches southeast Kansas/southwest Missouri
between 9pm and 11pm, the I-44 corridor between 11pm-2am, and
south-central MO between 2am-5am.

Flood Risk Tonight:

The Weather Prediction Center has maintained a Moderate Risk for
excessive rainfall across much of southwest Missouri and
southeast Kansas. Southwesterly flow will continue to transport
moisture into the area ahead of the cold front, with models pegging
PWATs at a soupy 2.2 to 2.4". Rain rates of 2-3 in/hr will be
possible with the strongest updrafts. Guidance continues to
depict a widespread 1-3 inches in total with localized pockets
near 6 inches, which would result in flash flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Sunday-Monday:

Drier air will filter in behind the cold front on Sunday. Apart
from a few light showers that linger Sunday morning, mostly dry
conditions will persist through Monday along with pleasant
(below average) temperatures in the mid 70s.

Storm Chances Return Mid-week:

Ensembles depict a shortwave trough pivoting through the Midwest
Tuesday into Wednesday with a strengthening 500 mb jet. Low-
confidence rain chances exist late Tuesday into Wednesday as a
diffuse warm front lifts into the area.

Better thunderstorm chances arrive late Wednesday into Thursday
with the passage of a cold front. Global models depict strong
destabilization occurring ahead of the front within a corridor
of stronger shear under the enhanced 500 mb flow, which may
support the development of strong storms. SPC has highlighted a
broad 15% risk for severe weather across the Midwest and into
the Ohio Valley. Indeed, AI and machine learning guidance show a
signal for severe storms in a similar area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to move across
southern MO this evening, with reduced visibilities and
ceilings expected. Flight conditions as low as MVFR to IFR
within heavy thunderstorms as a result of visibilities down to 1
to 3 miles and ceilings around 500 to 1500 feet. A break in
activity by late evening before a line of thunderstorms moves
the area, with gusty west-northwest associated with the
activity. Additional reduced flight conditions are likely to
persist as the complex moves through over the course of 2 to 4
hours. Behind the complex exiting south, MVFR ceilings around
1500 to 2500 feet persist behind the frontal passage.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Setting the stage, many areas across western MO and southeast KS
have received over 2 inches of rainfall and localized areas received
over 6 inches of rain in the past seven days. A Flood Watch is in
effect for most of the area, excluding the far southeast Ozarks for
a widespread 2 to 4 inches of rain with localized higher amounts.
For elsewhere outside of the watch, those areas could see 1 to 2
inches of rain. Localized higher amounts are depicted with the
latest HREF LPMM showing corridors 5 to 7 inches. The exact
locations of these corridors will vary and will be best captured as
the event unfolds. The Weather Prediction Center captures the heavy
rain and flash flooding potential with a Moderate Risk (3 of 4) for
today and overnight into Sunday morning.

From a heavy rainfall/flood potential environment, the atmosphere
will be conducive for efficient rainfall rates as PWATs push
towards 2 inches. This will support rainfall rates of 1 to 3
inches per a hour within thunderstorms. It is worth noting that
rivers are elevated going into this evening, with soil moisture
between 20-40% for most areas in the Flood Watch. One hour FFG
of 1 to 2 inches could quickly be exceeded as thunderstorms
progress through the area. Given the setup in place, locally
considerable flash flooding, along with "isolated moderate river
flooding" (per the National Water Center) are in the forecast
for today through tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Perez
HYDROLOGY...Perez

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
419 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-142130-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
419 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Slight tornado risk.
  Slight hail risk.
  Enhanced thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Significant excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Slight (Level 2 of 5) to Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) risk for severe
thunderstorms this evening and tonight.

Low confidence in isolated strong to severe storms south of the
Highway 60 corridor this afternoon.

This evening and tonight: A line of strong to severe
thunderstorms moves through the area. Primary hazard is damaging
wind gusts of 70 to 80 mph. Secondary hazard of large hail up to
golf balls and a brief tornado or two.

Moderate (Level 3 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall through
tonight due to expected heavy rainfall, elevated streamflows, and
saturated soils. Additional widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches are expected, with localized rainfall amounts up to 6
inches possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorm chances return late Tuesday through Thursday. There
is a slight risk of strong to severe thunderstorms, particularly
across central Missouri.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Didio

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
433 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

MOZ093-094-102-132200-
Barry MO-Newton MO-Lawrence MO-
433 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN NEWTON...NORTHERN
BARRY AND SOUTHERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM CDT...

At 432 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pierce City, or 11 miles west of Monett, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Monett, Aurora, Marionville, Pierce City, Verona, Freistatt,
Wentworth, Pleasant Ridge, Wheelerville, Madry, and Mcdowell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3683 9401 3689 9411 3703 9423 3705 9361
      3682 9361
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 264DEG 18KT 3695 9413

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Price

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
436 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     Flood            8 SSE Mountain Grove    37.04N 92.19W
06/13/2026                   Douglas            MO   Dept of Highways

            Road closed due to flooding.

&&

TEO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
618 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

MOZ104-132345-
Taney MO-
618 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT TANEY COUNTY THROUGH 645 PM
CDT...

At 618 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Taneyville to near Forsyth to near
Hollister to near Indian Point. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Branson, Lake Taneycomo, Table Rock State Park, Bull Shoals Lake,
Table Rock Lake, Hollister, Forsyth, Merriam Woods, Kissee Mills,
Rockaway Beach, Bull Creek, Taneyville, Table Rock, Kirbyville,
Powersite, Protem, Rueter, Ridgedale, Ozark Beach, and Walnut Shade.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 9328 3652 9331 3663 9331 3670 9322
      3681 9315 3681 9306 3674 9276 3650 9278
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 298DEG 25KT 3673 9309 3665 9312 3659 9319 3658
9330

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Price

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
620 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

MOZ093-101-102-132345-
Barry MO-Newton MO-McDonald MO-
620 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NEWTON...NORTHEASTERN MCDONALD
AND NORTHERN BARRY COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM CDT...

At 620 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles southeast of Baxter Springs to near
Fairview to 8 miles west of Galena. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Neosho, Monett, Cassville, Seneca, Granby, Purdy, Loma Linda,
Wheaton, Butterfield, Fairview, Newtonia, Pioneer, Stella, Stark
City, Ritchey, Wheelerville, Jenkins, Mcdowell, Pleasant Ridge, and
Rocky Comfort.

This includes Interstate 44 near mile marker 0.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for southwestern
Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3678 9462 3700 9462 3689 9364 3687 9361
      3683 9361 3681 9358 3666 9358 3664 9359
TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 267DEG 25KT 3696 9462 3682 9400 3678 9362

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Price

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
909 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

KSZ097-101-MOZ077-088-140245-
Cherokee KS-Crawford KS-Barton MO-Jasper MO-
909 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE...
CRAWFORD...WESTERN BARTON AND NORTHWESTERN JASPER COUNTIES THROUGH
945 PM CDT...

At 908 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Walnut to near Arma to 8 miles southeast
of Mindenmines. Movement was northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pittsburg, Prairie State Park, Lamar, Frontenac, Girard, Arma,
Liberal, Cherokee, Weir, Mulberry, Scammon, Chicopee, Mccune,
Nashville, Mindenmines, Franklin, Arcadia, Asbury, Lamar Heights, and
Hepler.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
southeastern Kansas...and southwestern and west central Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3767 9500 3767 9462 3765 9461 3765 9457
      3751 9421 3720 9463 3734 9508 3738 9507
      3739 9509 3745 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 0208Z 226DEG 23KT 3756 9499 3750 9475 3739 9447

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Price