Flash Flood Warning 57, NWS Springfield, MO

979 
WGUS73 KSGF 141157
FFSSGF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
657 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

MOC077-141207-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0057.000000T0000Z-260614T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Greene MO-
657 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR 
GREENE COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Residual flooding is expected to remain 
across the area through the day Sunday. Please continue to heed 
remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3728 9363 3743 9362 3742 9307 3727 9308
      3727 9306 3709 9307 3710 9361 3728 9361

$$

PC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1251 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms this
  afternoon through tonight. Damaging wind gusts of 70-80 mph
  will be the primary severe risk, with hail and brief tornadoes
  as secondary hazards.

- A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire area through Sunday
  morning. Moderate (Level 3 of 4) risk for Excessive Rainfall
  through tonight due to recent heavy rains, elevated
  streamflows, and saturated soils.

- Active weather returns from mid to late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Synoptic & Mesoscale Overview:

A closed upper-level low was slowly pivoting northeast toward
the Hudson Bay, with the attendant surface cold front extending
south-southwest through the Midwest and into the Plains. A
second, more diffuse front (from morning convection) was draped
across central and eastern Missouri. A remnant outflow boundary
was located across far southern MO and northern AR.

Scattered Storms this Afternoon:

A glance at satellite shows partial clearing across southern
Missouri in the wake of the morning precipitation along with
somewhat agitated cumulus along the aforementioned outflow
boundary across southwest MO and northern AR. Guidance has
wobbled on how much--or even if--convection initiates this
afternoon, but this area (roughly along and south of Highway 60)
will be the location to watch for a scattered severe
thunderstorm risk between 1pm and 5pm. With effective bulk
shear of 30-40+kt and sufficient destabilization (the big
question mark), supercells capable of producing isolated hail
to golf balls and damaging wind gusts. Overall confidence in
occurrence is low.

Enhanced Severe Risk this Evening and Tonight:

The higher confidence severe thunderstorm risk is late this
evening into tonight. Initial supercells are likely to develop
ahead of the cold front in northwest Missouri, northeast Kansas,
and southwest Iowa amidst steep lapse rates, moderate deep-layer
shear, and rich moisture. Upscale growth into clusters and
linear segments is likely as the front pushes southeast into
southwest Missouri and our southeast Kansas counties. If storms
can remain discrete, hail up to golf balls will be possible
along with damaging winds. As storms grow upscale, damaging
winds will be the primary hazard. Bowing segments will be
capable of producing gusts of 70-80 mph. Low-level shear will
initially be modest but increase with time as the low-level jet
increases, so a few tornadoes will also be possible. Storms will
gradually diminish in intensity as they push through southwest
Missouri with waning instability, possibly becoming outflow-
dominant.

Timing: Storm time of arrival has slowed slightly over the last
12 hours. Guidance suggests the leading edge of the
line/clusters reaches southeast Kansas/southwest Missouri
between 9pm and 11pm, the I-44 corridor between 11pm-2am, and
south-central MO between 2am-5am.

Flood Risk Tonight:

The Weather Prediction Center has maintained a Moderate Risk for
excessive rainfall across much of southwest Missouri and
southeast Kansas. Southwesterly flow will continue to transport
moisture into the area ahead of the cold front, with models pegging
PWATs at a soupy 2.2 to 2.4". Rain rates of 2-3 in/hr will be
possible with the strongest updrafts. Guidance continues to
depict a widespread 1-3 inches in total with localized pockets
near 6 inches, which would result in flash flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Sunday-Monday:

Drier air will filter in behind the cold front on Sunday. Apart
from a few light showers that linger Sunday morning, mostly dry
conditions will persist through Monday along with pleasant
(below average) temperatures in the mid 70s.

Storm Chances Return Mid-week:

Ensembles depict a shortwave trough pivoting through the Midwest
Tuesday into Wednesday with a strengthening 500 mb jet. Low-
confidence rain chances exist late Tuesday into Wednesday as a
diffuse warm front lifts into the area.

Better thunderstorm chances arrive late Wednesday into Thursday
with the passage of a cold front. Global models depict strong
destabilization occurring ahead of the front within a corridor
of stronger shear under the enhanced 500 mb flow, which may
support the development of strong storms. SPC has highlighted a
broad 15% risk for severe weather across the Midwest and into
the Ohio Valley. Indeed, AI and machine learning guidance show a
signal for severe storms in a similar area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Thunderstorms over the region will continue to push southeast,
bringing eventual VFR conditions by late morning today.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Setting the stage, many areas across western MO and southeast KS
have received over 2 inches of rainfall and localized areas received
over 6 inches of rain in the past seven days. A Flood Watch is in
effect for most of the area, excluding the far southeast Ozarks for
a widespread 2 to 4 inches of rain with localized higher amounts.
For elsewhere outside of the watch, those areas could see 1 to 2
inches of rain. Localized higher amounts are depicted with the
latest HREF LPMM showing corridors 5 to 7 inches. The exact
locations of these corridors will vary and will be best captured as
the event unfolds. The Weather Prediction Center captures the heavy
rain and flash flooding potential with a Moderate Risk (3 of 4) for
today and overnight into Sunday morning.

From a heavy rainfall/flood potential environment, the atmosphere
will be conducive for efficient rainfall rates as PWATs push
towards 2 inches. This will support rainfall rates of 1 to 3
inches per a hour within thunderstorms. It is worth noting that
rivers are elevated going into this evening, with soil moisture
between 20-40% for most areas in the Flood Watch. One hour FFG
of 1 to 2 inches could quickly be exceeded as thunderstorms
progress through the area. Given the setup in place, locally
considerable flash flooding, along with "isolated moderate river
flooding" (per the National Water Center) are in the forecast
for today through tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Titus
HYDROLOGY...Perez

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
419 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-142130-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
419 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Slight tornado risk.
  Slight hail risk.
  Enhanced thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Significant excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Slight (Level 2 of 5) to Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) risk for severe
thunderstorms this evening and tonight.

Low confidence in isolated strong to severe storms south of the
Highway 60 corridor this afternoon.

This evening and tonight: A line of strong to severe
thunderstorms moves through the area. Primary hazard is damaging
wind gusts of 70 to 80 mph. Secondary hazard of large hail up to
golf balls and a brief tornado or two.

Moderate (Level 3 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall through
tonight due to expected heavy rainfall, elevated streamflows, and
saturated soils. Additional widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches are expected, with localized rainfall amounts up to 6
inches possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorm chances return late Tuesday through Thursday. There
is a slight risk of strong to severe thunderstorms, particularly
across central Missouri.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Didio

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1242 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Duenweg                 37.09N 94.41W
06/13/2026                   Jasper             MO   Trained Spotter

            Power lines and limbs down.

&&

AS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1245 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Neosho                  36.87N 94.37W
06/13/2026  M84 MPH          Newton             MO   Amateur Radio

            Measured 84MPH winds through Neosho on
            Ridgewood Road at 11:45PM.

&&

AS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1249 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1237 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 WNW Butterfield       36.75N 93.92W
06/14/2026                   Barry              MO   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Butterfield Fire is reporting power lines
            down at Hwy 37 and Hwy U on social media.

&&

AS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1252 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1207 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Joplin                  37.09N 94.51W
06/14/2026                   Jasper             MO   Emergency Mngr

            Numerous power lines down across the city of
            Joplin.

&&

AS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1254 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1134 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Carthage                37.18N 94.31W
06/13/2026  E80 MPH          Jasper             MO   Amateur Radio

            4 miles South of Carthage just north of I44
            report of 80 MPH winds.

&&

AS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1257 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1257 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 WNW Joplin            37.09N 94.53W
06/14/2026                   Jasper             MO   Amateur Radio

            Tree down, about 40 inch wide on a house.

&&

AS