Severe Thunderstorm Warning 239, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
149 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight risk for severe storms south of Interstate 44 this
  afternoon and early evening. The primary hazard is isolated
  wind gusts up to 60-70 mph, with secondary risks of large hail
  up to half dollar size and localized flooding.

- Rain chances returning next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS EVENING/...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Convection this afternoon and early evening:
 - Impacts: Severe storms with isolated 60-70 mph winds and hail
   up to the size of half dollars. Localized flooding.
 - Details: Strong to severe storms are expected south of I-44.
   These storms are starting to fire as of 1:20pm and will
   continue into early this evening before pushing south of the
   area.
 - Confidence: 80-90% confidence in warnings being required.
 - Meteorological Analysis: A weak front pushing south will
   continue to initiate convection in an area of agitated
   cumulus. SBCAPE values of 4,500+ J/kg will support aggressive
   updraft development, but very weak bulk shear of < 20 kts
   will prevent organization. This decreases the hail threat
   substantially, with generally small to marginally severe hail
   expected. Will advertise up to half dollar size. Main hazard
   will be localized damaging winds up to 60-70 mph due to
   0-3km theta-e differences of 30-40 K. OPSTI values up to
   14-16 also shows strong support for severe pulse storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Quiet those most of this period, but rain chances return late
this week into next weekend:
 - Impacts: Too early to tell, but will be watching for any
   flooding threats. Risk appears low at this time, though.
 - Details: Moving back into a rainy pattern late this week
   through next weekend.
 - Confidence: Medium.
 - Meteorological Analysis: The upper high over the central
   CONUS keeps the area fairly quiet will shift east late this
   week as upper troughing settles over the midwest. This will
   lead to a wetter pattern. Ensemble PWATs are generally
   1.5-2", which is around 150% of normal. This may support a
   flooding threat, but important details related to that have a
   low predictability at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

A weak front over KSGF and KJLN at 18Z today will push south,
keeping the majority of the showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and early evening south of these sites. KBBG will
likely see convection nearby or overhead, with large hail and
especially damaging winds as the primary threat with
pulse/microburst thunderstorms. Storms will push south of the
area this evening. There is less than a 30% chance of fog
tonight at KBBG. For now, left fog out of the forecast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
442 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-020945-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
442 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Marginal hail risk.
  Marginal thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Limited excessive heat risk.
  Limited excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

There will be a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms through at
least 9 AM this morning, with the potential for damaging winds up
to 50 to 60 mph and hail up to the size of quarters, especially
east of Highway 63. Storms are overall on a weakening trend.
Additionally, isolated strong wind gusts may be possible with
other storms in western Missouri and eastern Kansas, but the
organized severe risk has ended for western Missouri this
morning.

Localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible
across the area, especially toward central Missouri where more
widespread rainfall is possible.

Muggy conditions with temperatures in the mid-80s to low 90s this
afternoon will bring heat indices as warm as the 90s to near 100
this afternoon, especially across far southwest Missouri.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Camden

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