River Flood Warning 48, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
647 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk for isolated severe thunderstorms
  overnight/early this morning. Elevated hail and isolated
  damaging winds will be the primary severe risk.

- Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms this
  afternoon through tonight. Damaging wind gusts of 70-80 mph
  will be the primary severe risk, with hail and brief tornadoes
  as secondary hazards.

- A Flood Watch is in effect for portions of the area this
  morning through Sunday morning. Moderate (Level 3 of 4) risk
  for Excessive Rainfall through tonight. This is due to recent
  heavy rains, elevated streamflows, and saturated soils.

- Active weather returns from mid to late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Overnight/Early this Morning:

Shortwave energy coming off the lee side of Colorado Front
Range supports a developing low across western KS. An associated
warm front is lifting north with this developing low, and will
meander through the area tonight. Warm air advection persists
through the overnight in the vicinity of 1500-2500 J/kg MUCAPE
and marginal deep layer shear. As the front lifts through, a few
isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop, though likely
remain elevated in nature. Most of this isolated activity will
remain sub-severe in nature, though a strong to marginally
severe thunderstorm remains possible as captured in SPC's
Marginal Risk (5% chance). Primary hazards with any stronger
thunderstorms would be penny to ping pong sized hail, with the
wind potential fairly limited given the elevated nature of the
thunderstorms. If a thunderstorm is able to root more to
surface, a damaging wind gust of 50 to 60 mph is plausible.
Additionally, localized heavy downpours would accompany any of
the thunderstorms. In general, the coverage overnight through
early this morning is expected to remain minimal, with many
locations remaining dry.

This Afternoon-Tonight:

Following on the heels of the previous forecast, there were two
scenarios presented on the potential evolution of Saturday
morning into the afternoon. Given the latest trends, we are
leaning towards a scenario where a strong cold pool is not in
play. This would be a direct result of no MCS translating
through the area on Saturday morning. Thus, the arrival of
shortwave energy into the area by late Saturday morning into the
afternoon should support additional clusters of thunderstorms
to develop in an environment favorable for strong to severe
thunderstorms. SPC highlights the severe potential with an
Enhanced (3 of 5) Severe Risk draped across much of the area.
The environment will be characterized by ample instability
(MUCAPE 3000-4000+ J/kg) in the vicinity of deep layer shear
30-40+ knots. There will be some initial capping to erode,
though should be overcome with the arrival of shortwave energy.
Forecast soundings depict this setup, with hodographs even
hinting at the potential for splitting thunderstorms. From a
storm mode standpoint, some supercell structures remain in play,
though most will quickly grow upscale into clusters/bowing
segments. This can be gleaned from latest CAMs depicting
scattered clusters of thunderstorms through the afternoon, with
a few discrete cells. From a hazards standpoint, the environment
supports large hail and damaging wind gusts with the afternoon
round. Large hail looks to more favorable west of Highway 65,
where the best mid level lapse rates (7.5 C/km) overlap the
highest instability. Large hail parameter on the order of 8 to
12 suggests maximum hail size up to 2 inches or greater. Further
east, the environment is a bit less favorable for large hail of
this size, though quarters to golf balls remain plausible. As
for damaging winds, this remains the greatest risk. Favorable
parameters include Theta-E diffs of 30-35 K with strong 0-6km
wind speeds overlapping ample downdraft CAPE. Strong cold pools
will rapidly develop in this environment, supporting bowing
segments and associated downdrafts. Damaging wind gusts of 60 to
70 mph can be expected within the strongest thunderstorms
through the afternoon. A tornado threat remains low, but not
zero across the Eastern Ozarks if any thunderstorms are able to
maintain discrete. In addition, localized heavy rainfall and
flooding is on the table as early as Saturday afternoon,
especially if thunderstorms train over the same areas. Further
discussion of potential flooding is captured below in the
Hydrology section of the AFD. To summarize, the most likely
scenario is scattered strong to severe thunderstorms through the
afternoon, with lingering uncertainty on the extent of coverage
ahead of the main event Saturday evening/night.

As we progress into the evening, additional shortwave energy ejects
across the Middle Mississippi Valley as a cold front dives south
through the region. A potent line of strong to severe thunderstorms
develops along the front and will set the stage for damaging
wind gusts in addition to the potential of a few brief
tornadoes. This complex is expected to rapidly evolve as it
dives south-southeast through the area, with the primary hazard
being damaging wind gusts of 70 to 80 mph. CAMs continue to
capture this scenario fairly well, though subtle differences
exist with the timing. The latest trends would suggest the
complex enters the area in the early evening and exits early
Sunday morning. This complex will have the capability of
producing widespread wind damage.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Quiet Sunday into Monday:

West-northwest flow aloft will settle into the region with weak
surface high pressure building in from the northwest. While a
leftover shower will be possible (<20% chance) over southern
Missouri in the morning, dry weather is primarily expected with
variable cloudiness. Pleasant highs in the 70s will occur with a
less humid air mass also filtering into the region.

Cool conditions will then occur Sunday night as a surface ridge
axis settles into the area. Lows over most areas will dip well
down into the 50s. We will have to watch for some fog potential
with winds become light on top of saturated soil.

Monday will remain dry with shorter term ensembles showing
strong consensus in high temperatures in the upper 70s and
lower 80s. Dew points will remain in the lower to middle 50s
keeping humidity values in check.

Active Weather from Mid to Late Week:

Global ensembles show fairly good agreement that an upper level
short wave trough will dig southeast through the Great Lakes on
Tuesday. A stronger wave is then forecast to dig through the
same general region from Wednesday night into Thursday.

The potential for showers and thunderstorms will initially
increase on Tuesday as a warm front lifts north through the
region. This front will then likely return south with that
second wave and potentially stall somewhere across Missouri or
Arkansas.

Machine-learning convective outlooks indicate some potential for
severe storms starting as early as Tuesday and persisting
through at least next Friday. At this point, the highest
probabilities are for next Wednesday and Thursday. With recent
heavy rainfall, we will also have to monitor the potential for
additional flooding.

Temperatures will be highly modulated by coverage of storms and
cloud cover in addition to the location of that front,
especially from Thursday onward. Wednesday may be the warmest
day of the week across much of the Ozarks with NBM spreads
fairly clustered around highs in the middle 80s to around 90
degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Morning convection is slowly drifting to the NW away from the
TAF sites. Additional scattered storms are then expected this
afternoon, some of which may be severe, but confidence in
coverage and location is low at this time. Additional
thunderstorms develop to the north and move through late this
evening into the overnight. Confidence is higher with these
storms, which may also pose a severe risk.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Setting the stage, many areas across western MO and southeast KS
have received over 2 inches of rainfall and localized areas received
over 6 inches of rain in the past seven days. A Flood Watch is in
effect for most of the area, excluding the far southeast Ozarks for
a widespread 2 to 4 inches of rain with localized higher amounts.
For elsewhere outside of the watch, those areas could see 1 to 2
inches of rain. Localized higher amounts are depicted with the
latest HREF LPMM showing corridors 5 to 7 inches. The exact
locations of these corridors will vary and will be best captured as
the event unfolds. The Weather Prediction Center captures the heavy
rain and flash flooding potential with a Moderate Risk (3 of 4) for
today and overnight into Sunday morning.

From a heavy rainfall/flood potential environment, the atmosphere
will be conducive for efficient rainfall rates as PWATs push
towards 2 inches. This will support rainfall rates of 1 to 3
inches per a hour within thunderstorms. It is worth noting that
rivers are elevated going into this evening, with soil moisture
between 20-40% for most areas in the Flood Watch. One hour FFG
of 1 to 2 inches could quickly be exceeded as thunderstorms
progress through the area. Given the setup in place, locally
considerable flash flooding, along with "isolated moderate river
flooding" (per the National Water Center) are in the forecast
for today through tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MOZ055>058-066>070-
     077>081-088>090-093>095-101>103.

&&

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Titus
HYDROLOGY...Perez

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1250 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-140600-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
1250 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Through Saturday night.

Weather hazards expected...

  Slight tornado risk.
  Slight hail risk.
  Enhanced thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Limited excessive heat risk.
  Significant excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms tonight.
Hail to the size of ping balls and isolated damaging winds will
be the primary severe risks. There is also a elevated risk for
flash flooding in areas that receive multiple thunderstorms. A
Flood Watch has been issued for much of western Missouri and
southeast Kansas from 1 AM tonight through 7 PM Sunday morning.

Slight (Level 2 of 5) to Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) risk for severe
thunderstorms today and tonight.

This afternoon: Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible. Primary hazards are large hail up to two inches in
diameter and damaging wind gusts of 60-70 mph. Secondary hazard of
a tornado or two.

This evening/tonight: A line of strong to severe thunderstorms
moves through the area. Primary hazard is damaging wind gusts of
70-80 mph. Secondary hazard of large hail up to one inch in
diameter and a brief tornado or two.

Moderate (Level 3 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall early today
through tonight due to expected heavy rainfall, elevated
streamflows, and saturated soils. Widespread rainfall amounts of
1 to 3 inches are expected, with localized rainfall amounts up to
6 inches possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Additional rounds of thunderstorms are possible next week, mainly
in the Tuesday through Friday time frame. While confidence in
details is low, there will be potential for some of this activity
to present a severe weather risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Titus

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
744 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

MOZ055-067>069-131315-
Camden MO-Benton MO-Hickory MO-St. Clair MO-
744 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN HICKORY...SOUTHERN
BENTON...ST. CLAIR AND WEST CENTRAL CAMDEN COUNTIES THROUGH 815 AM
CDT...

At 744 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Warsaw to 8 miles west
of Osceola. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Truman State Park, Truman Lake, Warsaw, Appleton City, Osceola, Lowry
City, Cross Timbers, Collins, Climax Springs, Roscoe, Vista, Gerster,
Palo Pinto, Quincy, Fristoe, Knobby, Racket, Barnumton, Johnson City,
and Hastain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3811 9292 3783 9378 3784 9381 3789 9381
      3790 9392 3805 9406 3821 9405 3820 9356
      3822 9356 3821 9353 3837 9352 3842 9350
TIME...MOT...LOC 1244Z 303DEG 26KT 3816 9338 3800 9385

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Camden

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
928 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0834 AM     Flash Flood      5 NW Iconium            38.16N 93.60W
06/13/2026                   St. Clair          MO   Dept of Highways

            Route HH southbound is closed due to
            flooding.

&&

JD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
929 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0832 AM     Flash Flood      4 NE Johnson City       38.16N 93.87W
06/13/2026                   St. Clair          MO   Dept of Highways

            Route A eastbound closed due to flooding.

&&

JD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
933 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0903 AM     Flash Flood      3 NNE Goodson           37.74N 93.22W
06/13/2026                   Polk               MO   Amateur Radio

            Photo of water flowing over S 223 Rd over
            Jordan Creek due to flooding.

&&

JD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
944 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0933 AM     Rain             Humansville             37.79N 93.58W
06/13/2026  M4.00 Inch       Polk               MO   Amateur Radio

            Four inches of rain in Humansville.
            Additional rain likely.

&&

JD