Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1208 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk for isolated severe thunderstorms
  overnight/early this morning. Elevated hail and isolated
  damaging winds will be the primary severe risk.

- Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms this
  afternoon through tonight. Damaging wind gusts of 70-80 mph
  will be the primary severe risk, with hail and brief tornadoes
  as secondary hazards.

- A Flood Watch is in effect for portions of the area this
  morning through Sunday morning. Moderate (Level 3 of 4) risk
  for Excessive Rainfall through tonight. This is due to recent
  heavy rains, elevated streamflows, and saturated soils.

- Active weather returns from mid to late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Overnight/Early this Morning:

Shortwave energy coming off the lee side of Colorado Front
Range supports a developing low across western KS. An associated
warm front is lifting north with this developing low, and will
meander through the area tonight. Warm air advection persists
through the overnight in the vicinity of 1500-2500 J/kg MUCAPE
and marginal deep layer shear. As the front lifts through, a few
isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop, though likely
remain elevated in nature. Most of this isolated activity will
remain sub-severe in nature, though a strong to marginally
severe thunderstorm remains possible as captured in SPC's
Marginal Risk (5% chance). Primary hazards with any stronger
thunderstorms would be penny to ping pong sized hail, with the
wind potential fairly limited given the elevated nature of the
thunderstorms. If a thunderstorm is able to root more to
surface, a damaging wind gust of 50 to 60 mph is plausible.
Additionally, localized heavy downpours would accompany any of
the thunderstorms. In general, the coverage overnight through
early this morning is expected to remain minimal, with many
locations remaining dry.

This Afternoon-Tonight:

Following on the heels of the previous forecast, there were two
scenarios presented on the potential evolution of Saturday
morning into the afternoon. Given the latest trends, we are
leaning towards a scenario where a strong cold pool is not in
play. This would be a direct result of no MCS translating
through the area on Saturday morning. Thus, the arrival of
shortwave energy into the area by late Saturday morning into the
afternoon should support additional clusters of thunderstorms
to develop in an environment favorable for strong to severe
thunderstorms. SPC highlights the severe potential with an
Enhanced (3 of 5) Severe Risk draped across much of the area.
The environment will be characterized by ample instability
(MUCAPE 3000-4000+ J/kg) in the vicinity of deep layer shear
30-40+ knots. There will be some initial capping to erode,
though should be overcome with the arrival of shortwave energy.
Forecast soundings depict this setup, with hodographs even
hinting at the potential for splitting thunderstorms. From a
storm mode standpoint, some supercell structures remain in play,
though most will quickly grow upscale into clusters/bowing
segments. This can be gleaned from latest CAMs depicting
scattered clusters of thunderstorms through the afternoon, with
a few discrete cells. From a hazards standpoint, the environment
supports large hail and damaging wind gusts with the afternoon
round. Large hail looks to more favorable west of Highway 65,
where the best mid level lapse rates (7.5 C/km) overlap the
highest instability. Large hail parameter on the order of 8 to
12 suggests maximum hail size up to 2 inches or greater. Further
east, the environment is a bit less favorable for large hail of
this size, though quarters to golf balls remain plausible. As
for damaging winds, this remains the greatest risk. Favorable
parameters include Theta-E diffs of 30-35 K with strong 0-6km
wind speeds overlapping ample downdraft CAPE. Strong cold pools
will rapidly develop in this environment, supporting bowing
segments and associated downdrafts. Damaging wind gusts of 60 to
70 mph can be expected within the strongest thunderstorms
through the afternoon. A tornado threat remains low, but not
zero across the Eastern Ozarks if any thunderstorms are able to
maintain discrete. In addition, localized heavy rainfall and
flooding is on the table as early as Saturday afternoon,
especially if thunderstorms train over the same areas. Further
discussion of potential flooding is captured below in the
Hydrology section of the AFD. To summarize, the most likely
scenario is scattered strong to severe thunderstorms through the
afternoon, with lingering uncertainty on the extent of coverage
ahead of the main event Saturday evening/night.

As we progress into the evening, additional shortwave energy ejects
across the Middle Mississippi Valley as a cold front dives south
through the region. A potent line of strong to severe thunderstorms
develops along the front and will set the stage for damaging
wind gusts in addition to the potential of a few brief
tornadoes. This complex is expected to rapidly evolve as it
dives south-southeast through the area, with the primary hazard
being damaging wind gusts of 70 to 80 mph. CAMs continue to
capture this scenario fairly well, though subtle differences
exist with the timing. The latest trends would suggest the
complex enters the area in the early evening and exits early
Sunday morning. This complex will have the capability of
producing widespread wind damage.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Quiet Sunday into Monday:

West-northwest flow aloft will settle into the region with weak
surface high pressure building in from the northwest. While a
leftover shower will be possible (<20% chance) over southern
Missouri in the morning, dry weather is primarily expected with
variable cloudiness. Pleasant highs in the 70s will occur with a
less humid air mass also filtering into the region.

Cool conditions will then occur Sunday night as a surface ridge
axis settles into the area. Lows over most areas will dip well
down into the 50s. We will have to watch for some fog potential
with winds become light on top of saturated soil.

Monday will remain dry with shorter term ensembles showing
strong consensus in high temperatures in the upper 70s and
lower 80s. Dew points will remain in the lower to middle 50s
keeping humidity values in check.

Active Weather from Mid to Late Week:

Global ensembles show fairly good agreement that an upper level
short wave trough will dig southeast through the Great Lakes on
Tuesday. A stronger wave is then forecast to dig through the
same general region from Wednesday night into Thursday.

The potential for showers and thunderstorms will initially
increase on Tuesday as a warm front lifts north through the
region. This front will then likely return south with that
second wave and potentially stall somewhere across Missouri or
Arkansas.

Machine-learning convective outlooks indicate some potential for
severe storms starting as early as Tuesday and persisting
through at least next Friday. At this point, the highest
probabilities are for next Wednesday and Thursday. With recent
heavy rainfall, we will also have to monitor the potential for
additional flooding.

Temperatures will be highly modulated by coverage of storms and
cloud cover in addition to the location of that front,
especially from Thursday onward. Wednesday may be the warmest
day of the week across much of the Ozarks with NBM spreads
fairly clustered around highs in the middle 80s to around 90
degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

A complex of showers and thunderstorms will continue to shift
east through southeast Missouri at the start of the TAF period.
Chance for scattered thunderstorms across far southern Missouri
this afternoon, but confidence in location is low, so any
mention was included in a PROB30 group.

Higher confidence in a line of storms move through the region
late this evening into tonight, bringing lightning, heavy
rainfall, and gusty northwest winds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Setting the stage, many areas across western MO and southeast KS
have received over 2 inches of rainfall and localized areas received
over 6 inches of rain in the past seven days. A Flood Watch is in
effect for most of the area, excluding the far southeast Ozarks for
a widespread 2 to 4 inches of rain with localized higher amounts.
For elsewhere outside of the watch, those areas could see 1 to 2
inches of rain. Localized higher amounts are depicted with the
latest HREF LPMM showing corridors 5 to 7 inches. The exact
locations of these corridors will vary and will be best captured as
the event unfolds. The Weather Prediction Center captures the heavy
rain and flash flooding potential with a Moderate Risk (3 of 4) for
today and overnight into Sunday morning.

From a heavy rainfall/flood potential environment, the atmosphere
will be conducive for efficient rainfall rates as PWATs push
towards 2 inches. This will support rainfall rates of 1 to 3
inches per a hour within thunderstorms. It is worth noting that
rivers are elevated going into this evening, with soil moisture
between 20-40% for most areas in the Flood Watch. One hour FFG
of 1 to 2 inches could quickly be exceeded as thunderstorms
progress through the area. Given the setup in place, locally
considerable flash flooding, along with "isolated moderate river
flooding" (per the National Water Center) are in the forecast
for today through tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Didio
HYDROLOGY...Perez

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1250 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-140600-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
1250 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Through Saturday night.

Weather hazards expected...

  Slight tornado risk.
  Slight hail risk.
  Enhanced thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Limited excessive heat risk.
  Significant excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms tonight.
Hail to the size of ping balls and isolated damaging winds will
be the primary severe risks. There is also a elevated risk for
flash flooding in areas that receive multiple thunderstorms. A
Flood Watch has been issued for much of western Missouri and
southeast Kansas from 1 AM tonight through 7 PM Sunday morning.

Slight (Level 2 of 5) to Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) risk for severe
thunderstorms today and tonight.

This afternoon: Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible. Primary hazards are large hail up to two inches in
diameter and damaging wind gusts of 60-70 mph. Secondary hazard of
a tornado or two.

This evening/tonight: A line of strong to severe thunderstorms
moves through the area. Primary hazard is damaging wind gusts of
70-80 mph. Secondary hazard of large hail up to one inch in
diameter and a brief tornado or two.

Moderate (Level 3 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall early today
through tonight due to expected heavy rainfall, elevated
streamflows, and saturated soils. Widespread rainfall amounts of
1 to 3 inches are expected, with localized rainfall amounts up to
6 inches possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Additional rounds of thunderstorms are possible next week, mainly
in the Tuesday through Friday time frame. While confidence in
details is low, there will be potential for some of this activity
to present a severe weather risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Titus

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
933 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0903 AM     Flash Flood      3 NNE Goodson           37.74N 93.22W
06/13/2026                   Polk               MO   Amateur Radio

            Photo of water flowing over S 223 Rd over
            Jordan Creek due to flooding.

&&

JD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
944 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0933 AM     Rain             Humansville             37.79N 93.58W
06/13/2026  M4.00 Inch       Polk               MO   Amateur Radio

            Four inches of rain in Humansville.
            Additional rain likely.

&&

JD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1015 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0948 AM     Flash Flood      4 SE Pittsburg          37.79N 93.24W
06/13/2026                   Polk               MO   Dept of Highways

            Water Over Road Debris over road on ST HWY
            HH from 64 to AC Per Buffalo MoDot.

&&

JD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1113 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

MOZ096-097-105-131645-
Douglas MO-Ozark MO-Howell MO-
1113 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN OZARK...
SOUTHEASTERN DOUGLAS AND WESTERN HOWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 1145 AM
CDT...

At 1113 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles southwest of Willow Springs, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
West Plains, Pomona, South Fork, Dora, Siloam Springs, and
Pottersville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3677 9234 3696 9222 3693 9178 3656 9199
TIME...MOT...LOC 1613Z 294DEG 30KT 3685 9218

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Camden

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

MOZ082-097-098-131700-
Howell MO-Texas MO-Shannon MO-
1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN SHANNON...NORTHERN
HOWELL AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS COUNTIES THROUGH NOON CDT...

At 1130 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Willow Springs, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Mountain View, Willow Springs, Cabool, Pomona, Peace Valley, White
Church, Teresita, Clear Springs, Arroll, and Pine Crest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3688 9206 3712 9210 3717 9160 3689 9162
      3688 9166 3682 9166
TIME...MOT...LOC 1630Z 270DEG 32KT 3698 9194

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Camden

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1207 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

MOZ097-098-106-131730-
Oregon MO-Howell MO-Shannon MO-
1207 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN SHANNON...NORTHEASTERN
HOWELL AND OREGON COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 PM CDT...

At 1207 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 6 miles north of Birch Tree
to 11 miles east of West Plains. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ozark National Scenic Riverways, Mountain View, Winona, Alton, Birch
Tree, Montier, Thomasville, Peace Valley, Teresita, Couch, Alley
Spring, Rover, White Church, Greer, and Pine Crest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3677 9184 3705 9170 3705 9166 3715 9166
      3718 9164 3709 9108 3708 9122 3683 9123
      3682 9117 3651 9132
TIME...MOT...LOC 1707Z 291DEG 26KT 3709 9152 3678 9166

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Camden