Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
203 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Not expecting any changes to the Flood Watch that has been
issued for southeastern WV and part of the western VA mountains.

Still expecting scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening, some of which may produce damaging wind
gusts and localized flash flooding. Another round of showers and
possibly a few storms on Tuesday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and continue into
the early overnight hours. Some storms could be severe, with
damaging winds the main threat.

2) Localized flooding in the mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and
continue into the early overnight hours. Some storms could be
severe, with damaging winds the main threat. Localized flooding
in the mountains.

A shortwave will advance eastward into the southeast and Mid-
Atlantic by the afternoon/evening and be the main forcing
mechanism for widely scattered storms. Strong surface heating
is already ongoing across much of the forecast area, especially
along and south of a stationary front draped roughly from
Lewisburg, WV to Lynchburg, VA. South of this stationary front,
boundary layer moisture continues to increase, with upper 60s
and lower 70 dew points now showing in recent observations. This
should set the stage for CAPE values exceeding 1500 - 2000 J/kg
by the afternoon. Although lapse rates remain poor,
strengthening mid- level flow and increasing instability will
likely offset this and will eventually see widely scattered
storms begin to develop within the next couple of hours.

Main focus for storm development will initially be across
southeast West Virginia and far southwest Virginia. Eventually
will begin to see storms along the Blue Ridge mid mid-afternoon
forming into multicell clusters and propagating east into the
Piedmont. A secondary line of storms may develop this evening
that is more closely associated with the mid-level shortwave.
All storms today will especially be capable of strong damaging
winds, with a secondary hail threat. Some local enhancement of
storms could also occur along the stationary front as well.

Storm coverage intensity and coverage should begin to decrease
after 10PM tonight with some rain and possibly a few storms
lingering through early Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Localized flooding in the mountains.

Repeated rounds of storms over southeast West Virginia and far
southwest Virginia may result in areas of localized flash
flooding through this evening. Although storm motions today
remain in the 20-30kt range, high PWAT values now beginning to
approach 2" and the potential for training storms gives enough
confidence for a Flood Watch over the aforementioned areas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Currently the area is VFR all around, but as thunderstorms and
showers become more prevalent later into the afternoon and evening,
expect cloud cigs to generally drop as the storms mix and lower the
moisture in the atmosphere. Additionally, some of these storms and
showers will have high rain rates in excess of 1" per hour, which
can reduce vsby at the surface when a site is located in a rain
shaft. In the vicinity of thunderstorms, erratic and strong wind
gusts are possible with little notice, so aviation near storms can
be dangerous.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Stratus will likely hang on in the mountains through early
Tuesday afternoon before terminals improve to VFR there too.
This calm weather lasts through Wednesday.

Beginning Thursday, scattered diurnal storms will likely
develop during the heat of the afternoon, potentially impacting
scheduled afternoon and evening flights with turbulent
conditions and brief delays. Outside of the stormy weather, the
only other major threat to flight categories will come from
early-morning mountain valley and river fog bringing additional
windows of restricted visibility.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for VAZ007.
NC...None.
WV...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for WVZ042>044-507-
     508.

&&

DISCUSSION...BMG
AVIATION...SH/VFJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
242 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

WVZ043-044-507-508-231845-
Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
242 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 375 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

Flood Watch through this evening. Heavy rain may cause excessive
runoff. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is also in effect through this
evening for the potential for damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are requested to report hail of any size, as well
as any damage caused by thunderstorm winds in their area.

VAZ007-WVZ042-231845-
Tazewell-Mercer-
242 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

lease listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

Flood Watch through this evening for heavy rain which may cause
flash flooding.

There is also a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms this through
this evening. Damaging winds are the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are requested to report hail of any size, as well
as any damage caused by thunderstorm winds in their area.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ009>017-022-032-033-043-044-058-059-231845-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-
Floyd-Roanoke-Patrick-Franklin-Henry-Pittsylvania-Halifax-Charlotte-
242 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, south central Virginia, southwest
Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is an Marginal Risk of heavy rainfall leading to localized
flash flooding through this evening.

There is also a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms through this
evening. Damaging winds are the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ018>020-023-024-034-035-045>047-231845-
Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Bedford-Amherst-
Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-
242 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 375 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, south
central Virginia, southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are requested to report hail of any size, as well
as any damage caused by thunderstorm winds in their area.

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