Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
212 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Severe weather chances will continue each day for the remainder of
the week.

Cloud cover expected to mute temperatures. Trimmed highs 2 to 5
degrees lower than model blends (NBM)...more in line with
MET/MAV Model Output Statistics (MOS).

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1: Strong to severe storms will be possible across most
of the area through Friday, with isolated flash flooding possible in
the western mountains.

2: Above normal temperatures expected Thursday through Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Strong to severe storms will be possible across most
of the area through Friday, with isolated flash flooding possible in
the western mountains.

Subsequent upper-level shortwave troughs will traverse east across
the Mid-Atlantic over the next few days. Winds become more westerly,
allowing a leeside trough to form across the Piedmont. This
combination will allow for some strong to severe storms to form each
afternoon with the aid of diurnal heating. A Bermuda high in the
Western Atlantic will also continue to feed a southerly flow of
warm, moist air into the area, especially by tomorrow, further
enhancing storm development.

For the rest of today, showers and storms have moved into the
Piedmont and will continue to push south and east. Isolated severe
weather remains possible, in the form of damaging wind gusts and
small hail. Excessive rainfall also remains possible, generally
anywhere south of I-64, which could cause isolated flash flooding in
flood-prone areas. High rain rates of 2-4"+ per hour, and any storms
that move over the same areas repeatedly would be the most likely
cause of flooding in vulnerable locations. Showers/storms move out
by this evening, with mostly quieter weather into the overnight
hours.

On Thursday, moisture continues to increase, with precipitable water
amounts nearing 2.00". This will allow storms to produce efficient
rainfall and high rain rates, with isolated flash flooding possible,
mainly confined to West Virginia. Severe weather will also be a
threat again tomorrow, as warmer temperatures and clearer skies will
increase instability. There is some uncertainty with storm coverage
for tomorrow, as CAM models have a wide range of possibilities.
However, virtually all models have struggled to effectively capture
storm complexes over the past couple of days. Any storms that do
form will be capable of damaging wind gusts and large hail. The
entire area is in a Marginal Risk, with a Slight Risk for locations
north of US-460.

Friday will see yet another round of showers/storms in the
afternoon, with the same areas in a Marginal and Slight Risk for
severe weather as was the case on Thursday. Damaging winds and
possibly large hail will again be the threats. Isolated flash
flooding is also possible in the far western mountains. The one
difference for Friday will be that the trough pushes east and a cold
front moves into the area, which will be the main forcing for
showers/storms to develop, leading to more widespread coverage.

Key Message 2: Above normal temperatures Thursday through
Sunday.

Winds look to turn westerly/southwesterly Thursday and Friday
ahead of an approaching cold front, that looks to push into the
region late in the day on Friday. Temperatures will be quite
warm with some downsloping winds leading to adiabatic warming
both Thursday and Friday east of the Blue Ridge in the Piedmont.
Daytime highs each day look to climb into the mid 90s, with
some localized areas possibly reaching the mid to upper 90s
across the Piedmont. These high temperatures combined with
dewpoint temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees across
the region will lead to Heat Index values in the 100-105 range
across much of the Piedmont on Thursday and Friday. These Heat
Index values are just below heat headlines for the Piedmont of
Virginia and North Carolina; nevertheless, folks should still
consider taking frequent breaks indoors or the shade, as well as
drinking plenty of fluids if working outdoors during the peak
of the daytime heat.

While a frontal passage is expected Friday, temperatures do not
look to decrease on Saturday or Sunday; however, dewpoint
temperatures will decrease significantly enough that Heat index
values will be tied closer to actual temperatures for the area.
The lower dewpoints will scour the mugginess across the area,
which will inadvertently provide some relief from the heat.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to make there way
through south central Virginia this afternoon. These showers and
thunderstorms will bring brief periods of MVFR to IFR
CIGs/VSBYs, and gusty/erratic winds as they move into the
vicinity of Terminals. Much of these showers have already passed
most terminals across the area, with LYH and DAN the only two
that are currently or will be impacted in the next 1-2 hours.
Winds will generally remain out of the west/southwest at around
5-10 knots, with gusts up to 15-20 knots at times this
afternoon. VFR conditions look to prevail outside of these
shower and thunderstorm activity for all terminals except BCB
and LWB during the early morning hours on Thursday. With rain
today, the wet surface ground layer will likely create some
patchy fog in river valleys especially. This river valley fog
may lead to some brief VSBY restrictions towards the early
morning hours.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK

A summertime weather pattern is expected for Thursday into the
upcoming weekend. Temperatures are expected to warm above normal
leading to stronger thunderstorms when they occur. This may lead
to some brief periods of MVFR/IFR CIGs and VSBYs, as well as
strong and erratic gusty winds within the vicinity of
thunderstorms.

Expecting mainly VFR conditions through the upcoming weekend
with the exception of scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms and potential for late night fog and stratus.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...EB/JCB
AVIATION...EB/PM

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
1136 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

VAZ007-010-011-013-014-018-022>024-034-035-045-WVZ042-044-101630-
Tazewell VA-Botetourt VA-Pulaski VA-Amherst VA-Rockbridge VA-
Giles VA-Bland VA-Montgomery VA-Campbell VA-Craig VA-Roanoke VA-
Bedford VA-Monroe WV-Mercer WV-
1136 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
PULASKI...GILES...CRAIG...SOUTHWESTERN ROCKBRIDGE...NORTHEASTERN
TAZEWELL...BOTETOURT...ROANOKE...BLAND...BEDFORD...AMHERST...
MONTGOMERY...SOUTHERN MERCER AND SOUTHERN MONROE COUNTIES...THE CITY
OF BUENA VISTA...THE CITY OF RADFORD...THE CITY OF SALEM...THE CITY
OF LYNCHBURG AND THE CITY OF ROANOKE THROUGH 1230 PM EDT...

At 1135 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Pleasant View to near
Catawba to near Elgood to Boissevain. Movement was east at 90 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Roanoke...
Lynchburg...
Blacksburg...
Salem...
Christiansburg...
Radford...
and Bluefield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3744 8096 3743 8086 3778 7927 3762 7894
      3754 7890 3734 7923 3720 7978 3722 7978
      3712 8031 3698 8072 3703 8089 3707 8091
      3705 8098 3722 8153
TIME...MOT...LOC 1535Z 287DEG 78KT 3766 7930 3740 8002 3743 8091 3728
8140

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JCB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
1231 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

VAZ034-035-045>047-101730-
Buckingham VA-Amherst VA-Campbell VA-Bedford VA-Appomattox VA-
1231 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
APPOMATTOX...CAMPBELL...CENTRAL BEDFORD...BUCKINGHAM...AND SOUTHERN
AMHERST COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF LYNCHBURG THROUGH 130 PM EDT...

At 1230 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Shipman to near Naola
to near Chamblissburg. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lynchburg...
Buckingham...
Bedford...
Altavista...
Amherst...
Appomattox...
and Dillwyn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3751 7834 3710 7920 3712 7921 3711 7924
      3713 7925 3712 7927 3726 7985 3769 7899
      3755 7890 3754 7884 3754 7882 3756 7881
      3759 7883 3760 7881 3763 7882 3764 7872
      3770 7869 3768 7864 3771 7865 3767 7824
TIME...MOT...LOC 1630Z 282DEG 24KT 3769 7888 3750 7926 3729 7971

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JCB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
128 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

VAZ034-044>046-058-059-101800-
Halifax VA-Campbell VA-Bedford VA-Pittsylvania VA-Charlotte VA-
Appomattox VA-
128 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN APPOMATTOX...NORTHWESTERN CHARLOTTE...CAMPBELL...
NORTHEASTERN PITTSYLVANIA...NORTHWESTERN HALIFAX AND SOUTH CENTRAL
BEDFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM EDT...

At 127 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Spout Spring to near
Huddleston. Movement was southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Altavista...
Appomattox...
Hurt...
Gretna...
Brookneal...
Mt Airy...
and Red House.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3726 7868 3721 7869 3719 7868 3719 7864
      3717 7864 3687 7923 3710 7962 3740 7887
      3733 7861
TIME...MOT...LOC 1727Z 295DEG 22KT 3739 7890 3709 7948

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JCB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
158 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

VAZ033-043-044-058-059-101830-
Henry VA-Franklin VA-Halifax VA-Pittsylvania VA-Charlotte VA-
158 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
CENTRAL CHARLOTTE...PITTSYLVANIA...NORTHWESTERN HALIFAX...
NORTHEASTERN HENRY AND SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM
EDT...

At 157 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Hurt to Bassett.
Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Chatham...
Gretna...
Mt Airy...
Blairs...
Callands...
Sydnorsville...
and Nathalie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3693 7862 3661 7957 3681 8004 3707 7928
TIME...MOT...LOC 1757Z 290DEG 35KT 3703 7930 3678 7999

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JCB

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