Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
710 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the forecast as the Ad Nauseam of diurnal
thunderstorms continues.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
-1) An active pattern brings mainly diurnal showers and
  thunderstorms into next week, primarily during the afternoon
  and evening hours. Localized flash flooding is possible each
  day, but the threat for severe weather remains low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Showers and thunderstorms fired up in the mountains early this
afternoon with the help of a weak mid-level short wave trough
lifting through the area, and perhaps a subtle inverted surface
trough. While coverage will remain greatest in and near the
mountains this afternoon into this evening, there will be at
least isolated thunderstorms in the area at large.

While thunderstorms will by and large wane after sunset this
evening, a stronger short wave trough to the west, which will
absorb the weaker one as it approaches tonight and Friday, may
bring thunderstorms into the middle Ohio Valley overnight
tonight, depending upon how convective complexes associated with
it evolve. However, with the short wave moving into the area
Friday, thunderstorms could be ongoing in the morning or
refiring by late morning, with a more active afternoon on tap.

River valley fog and areas of low clouds are likely again
overnight tonight into Friday morning, most likely and mst
persistent Friday morning where thunderstorms occur this
afternoon or evening.

Overall, mid/upper-level troughing/weakness continues over the
eastern third of the U.S. into the weekend, with the associated
chance for mainly, but not exclusively, diurnal thunderstorms.

The eastern U.S. trough position moves to or just off the east
coast early next week, allowing a west to northwest mid/upper-
level flow to take hold over the forecast area. After a brief
reprieve in response to this on Sunday as weak surface high
pressure become established, the Ad Nauseam of daily
thunderstorms returns Monday, or even Sunday night, as the
surface high gives way to low level southwest flow beneath the
mid/upper-level west to northwest flow.

Models are suggesting that troughing along the east coast
amplifies enough to bring a surface cold front through the area,
with an uptick in thunderstorms ahead of the front eventually
followed by drier weather in its wake.

The main threat from thunderstorms continues to be localized
flooding given relatively slow motion and PW values of 1.5 to 2
inches. The Weather Prediction Center has the forecast area in
a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall the next five days,
extending the streak to at least 7. The orientation shift to
west-northwest to east-southeast early next week reflects the
west-northwest mid/upper level flow.

While low shear for the most part keeps the severe weather
threat low through the weekend, increased shear associated with
the aforementioned flow pattern at times may increase the
severe weather threat in the form of a damaging wind potential
early next week. The Storm Prediction Center carries a general
thunderstorm risk the next 3 days, and has no severe risk for
days 4 through 8 next week, although, in their discussion, they
do allude to a damaging wind potential associated with possible
waves rotating around the large-scale upper trough over Canada
amid the ongoing very moist air mass with possibly strong
instability in place.

Temperatures will continue to run slightly above normal this
week amid the high humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Showers and thunderstorms will tapper off this evening. Expect
dense fog tonight in areas receiving rainfall this afternoon
and evening. Not sure if fog will form in areas that didn't
receive rainfall today, but did yesterday.

A cumulus deck will form again on Friday, with scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms causing restrictions.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, except low with fog.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms could vary. Timing, intensity, and location of
fog tonight could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
EDT 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
Brief IFR restrictions are possible with daily showers and
thunderstorms, primarily during the afternoon and evening
hours. IFR is also possible in valley fog each night,
especially in areas that received rainfall the previous day.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...TRM
AVIATION...RPY

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
830 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

WVZ005-024-025-070115-
Logan WV-Mingo WV-Wayne WV-
830 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN MINGO...
NORTHWESTERN LOGAN AND SOUTH CENTRAL WAYNE COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM
EDT...

At 830 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Warfield, or near Inez, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Gay-Shamrock, Holden, Naugatuck, Verdunville, Dingess, Myrtle,
Crum, Lenore, and Breeden.

This includes Route 119 between mile markers 1 and 26, and between
mile markers 28 and 29.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3797 8205 3774 8204 3776 8233 3778 8232
      3777 8233 3782 8238 3781 8240 3783 8240
      3786 8242 3787 8241 3790 8244 3791 8247
      3790 8247 3792 8248 3793 8250
TIME...MOT...LOC 0030Z 271DEG 17KT 3785 8242

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

26