Flash Flood Warning 116, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
320 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
 - 1) Periods of showers and storms expected through Saturday,
   and again during the new work week. Localized instances of
   flash flooding remain possible during these times, with a
   possible uptick in the severe weather threat next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Showers and thunderstorms firing up early this afternoon with
the help of a weak mid/upper-level short wave trough moving
through the area, and perhaps a subtle inverted surface trough,
will continue becoming more numerous amid the afternoon heating
and destabilization. With rich moisture content, evinced by PW
values of 1.5 to 2.0 inches, and somewhat slow motion, localized
flash flooding is possible.

The short wave was one of a series along the southern edge of a
long wave trough that kind of angles from central Canada south-
southeastward to the Ohio Valley early this afternoon. While
thunderstorms may tend to wane in intensity and coverage after
sunset this evening, additional short waves/convective
complexes keep the thunderstorm threat going through tonight and
Saturday, with a diurnal uptick in coverage and intensity again
Saturday afternoon.

River valley fog is possible overnight tonight into Saturday
morning, most likely, and most persistent Saturday morning
where thunderstorms occur this afternoon or evening.

The eastern U.S. trough position moves to or just off the east
coast early next week, allowing a west to northwest mid/upper-
level flow to take hold over the forecast area. After a brief
reprieve in response to this Sunday into Monday as weak surface
high pressure become established, and PW values drop into the
1.0-1.5 inch range, the Ad Nauseam of daily thunderstorms
returns Monday afternoon or evening, as the surface high gives
way to low level southwest flow beneath the mid/upper-level
west to northwest flow increasing PW values back up into the
1.5 to 2.0 inch range.

While localized flooding will again be a threat given relatively
slow storm motion and high PW values, increased shear associated
with the aforementioned flow pattern at times may increase the
severe weather threat in the form of a damaging wind potential
early next week.

The Weather Prediction Center has the forecast area in a
Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall through Saturday night,
then after the break on Sunday, they place northern portions of
the forecast area in a Marginal Risk Monday, and then throughout
the forecast area next Tuesday, with a Slight Risk area nudging
in from the west along the Ohio RIver. The orientation shift to
west-northwest to east-southeast early in the next work week
reflects the west-northwest mid/upper level flow.

In a large expansion from the Middle Atlantic to the south-
central Plains in the midday update, the Storm Prediction
Center has the forecast area in a Marginal Risk for Severe
Thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening, and then just
general thunderstorm for the weekend. The Storm Prediction
Center has introduced a 15% Severe Thunderstorm Risk in a west
to east orientation north and northwest of the forecast area,
for Monday, and allude to a damaging wind potential associated
with a west to east front and west-noprthwest mid-level flow
through Day 8, next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR morning stratocumulus persisting into this afternoon,
mainly along the Ohio River, should lift into a VFR SCT to BKN
cumulus field 3500-5000 ft area-wide this afternoon.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms popping up this afternoon
may impact most any TAF site, and TEMPO groups were coded up
for most of them, with VCTS was coded up all sites. Any
thunderstorm can bring brief IFR conditions in heavy downpours.
Thunderstorms should tend to wane after sunset this evening, but
a rogue thunderstorm is possible through the overnight and even
Saturday morning.

Overnight and early morning river valley fog is possible, but
VLIFR dense fog was only coded up for EKN for now. However, a
direct thunderstorm impact this afternoon or evening increases
the likelihood of fog formation at other sites, and of fog and
stratus lingering longer Saturday morning. Once the fog and
stratus are gone, MVFR morning stratocumulus appears likely once
again Saturday morning.

Surface flow will be light southwest by day and light south to
southwest to calm by night, but gusty winds are possible with
any thunderstorm. Flow aloft will be light west to southwest.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, except medium with thunderstorms and
early morning fog.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms could vary. Timing, intensity, and location of
fog overnight tonight into early Friday could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
EDT 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
Brief IFR restrictions are possible with daily showers and thunderstorms,
primarily during the afternoon and evening hours. IFR is also possible
in valley fog each night, especially in areas that received rainfall
the previous day.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...TRM
AVIATION...TRM

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>