Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
538 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
12Z Aviation Forecast update.

The main forecast is on track and no significant changes were
made at this time. Did however lower dewpoints as central
guidance was coming in a bit higher than most other guidance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Severe thunderstorm potential today with a slight risk
across much of the area. The main threat will be damaging wind
although we cannot rule out all hazards.

2) Improvement in smoke and air quality is anticipated by late
afternoon. Parts of West Virginia will be under the threat
until tonight at midnight.

3) Improvements to weather by late Sunday then another
potential threat of severe weather by Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Today much of the area will under a slight risk for severe
thunderstorms with the rest of the area toward the south under
a marginal threat. Also a marginal threat for excessive rainfall
is across the entire area. The main hazards are damaging wind
and possible flash flooding, however we cannot rule out the
rest of the hazards as a slight possibility as well.

This threat is due to an upper level trough with multiple
shortwaves forecast to move through the base of the trough
today and Sunday. A surface front will traverse north through
the area and keep us in a destabilized warm sector for which
severe weather will be possible this afternoon and evening.

Strong low level flow will promote organized cells or clusters
capable of damaging wind and with enough MUCAPE and EBWD along
with a large hail parameter of 4.0 or greater will also promote
isolated small to possibly large hail under a supercell,
however with freezing levels above 15k feet it will be hard for
any other storms to produce hail before it melts toward the
surface.

A tornado threat will also exist with enough EBWD, helicity,
low 100mb mean parcel LCLs and enough CAPE with the lack of CIN
depending on storm-mode evolution. The EBWD is slightly lower
than criteria, however this will mean that the threat is very low
at this time. There is a threat across the northern panhandle of
West Virginia and slightly touches our Perry County in Ohio.
The threat could be nudged further south and into our area later
in the day.

Another threat will be possible flash flooding with PWATs
anomalously high getting into the maximum for climatology or 3
standard deviations above normal for the region and efficient
DCAPE values along with the potential for downbursts. Heavy
downpours will be likely be in stronger thunderstorm activity
which will likely create some instances of flash flooding,
especially in low lying or flood prone areas or if training or
backbuilding occurs although steering flow should be modest
enough to keep the threat isolated in nature.

A wave of convection is forcast by Hi-res models early
afternoon and then again by the evening as a cold front shifts
southward into the area and continues to move south throughout
the day and exits by slightly after midnight tonight. Embedded
storms along a broken line of convection is forecast by Hi-res
models by this late evening, however due to earlier convection
and cloud coverage a lot of fuel will be lost, especially due
to the timing after sunset. However, with modest shear and upper
level dynamics will support clusters of strong to severe storms
possible along this line with the possibility of an isolated
supercell. Steering flow will be slightly weaker by this
evening, therefore flash flooding will still be a possibility.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Improvement from the smoke and haze will likely come to
fruition by the late afternoon as the wildfire smoke from
Canada will shift northward according to the HRRR smoke model.
Parts of north central West Virginia are still in an Air
Quality alert until tonight at midnight.

West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection - Air
Quality Division has issued a Code Orange Air Quality Action
Day for Fine Particulates for West Virgina.

A code Orange air quality alert means members of sensitive
groups may experience health effects. The general public is
less likely to be affected, but sensitive groups should take
additional precautions. These groups include children, the
elderly, and people suffering from asthma, heart disease, or
other lung diseases. The effects of air pollution can be
minimized by avoiding outdoor exercise or strenuous activity.

For more information check the U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency`s www.AirNow.gov website for current air monitor
readings.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

More potential for thunderstorms will reside on Sunday, however
coverage will be a lot less for the area as unsettled weather
exits for the rest of Sunday and settled weather will continue
into the new work week. Temperatures will moderate down to
about seasonable or below for today and Sunday and even continue
through the new work week.

Another broad upper level trough is expected to affect the area
by Tuesday with numerous short waves passing through. A
stronger cold front will likely create the possibility of severe
weather and SPC does have us in a slight risk of 15%
probability across much of the area for Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A little bit of valley fog has infiltrated into some terminals
this morning, however smoke will bring CKB/PKB down to MVF at
times and will predominately be MVFR throughout the early/mid
afternoon. Any fog dissipates by 13Z, however the smoke and
haze will affect the aforementioned sites throughout the
afternoon then slowly improving as the smoke drifts northward.

Several rounds of thunderstorm activity can be expected today
starting early this afternoon and then again later in the
evening as a cold front moves through the area and exits after
midnight to the south. Periods of MVFR or worse restrictions to
VIS are possibly under heavy showers, but the main threat today
will be damaging wind which is possible at virtually every site
as severe weather has potential area-wide today.

Winds will remain southwesterly and elevated today with gusty
winds expected this afternoon, however not forecasting anything
over 20kts prevailing. A wind shift out of the northwest will
likely take place late this evening as the cold front shifts
southward through the area.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog/smoke coverage this morning may vary
slightly. Storm coverage today may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SAT 07/18/26
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EDT 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    L    L    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    L    M    H    M    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR valley fog possible Sunday/Monday mornings.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ007>011-
     016>020-029>032-039-040.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...JZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1121 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

WVZ517-519-520-181600-
Southeast Nicholas WV-Northwest Nicholas WV-Northwest Fayette WV-
1121 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN NICHOLAS AND
NORTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES THROUGH NOON EDT...

At 1121 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Ansted, or 11 miles north of Fayetteville, moving northeast at
35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Summersville, Fayetteville, Ansted, Gauley Bridge, Hawks Nest State
Park, Kesslers Cross Lanes, Drennan, Swiss, and Mount Nebo.

This includes Route 19 between mile markers 20 and 47.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3805 8123 3826 8123 3837 8079 3810 8076
      3809 8082 3810 8088 3809 8090
TIME...MOT...LOC 1521Z 239DEG 46KT 3820 8104

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

04