Severe Thunderstorm Warning 207, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
137 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Active today with strong storms and heavy downpours ahead of a
front. Briefly drier behind the front then another system
brings potential for heavy rain and strong storms Tuesday into
Tuesday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain and thunderstorms are expected during the day, and as a
front crosses tonight into Sunday. Strong to severe storms could
produce damaging wind gusts today. Heavy rain could also prompt
localized flash flooding.

2) Impacts from wildfire smoke decrease today.

3) Next chance of heavy rain and strong storms arrives Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A low traverses southern Ontario and Quebec today and then continues
onward to the Maritime Provinces and Gulf of St. Lawrence on Sunday.
A cold front trailing this system will descend into the Middle Ohio
Valley tonight and then sink south towards the Virginia/North
Carolina border Sunday and Sunday night.

The presence of a warm, moist, and unstable environment ahead of the
front, combined with a passing shortwave, should facilitate
development of showers and thunderstorms across the area today.
Precipitable water values in excess of an inch and a half
should support heavy downpours which could prompt localized
flooding in poor drainage areas or locations impacted by
multiple storms. Scattered strong to severe storms could also be
capable of producing damaging wind gusts this afternoon and
evening.

A brief lull in activity may occur after sundown, then another round
of activity is expected to accompany the front across the area
overnight. Precipitation coverage tapers off from north to south as
the front recedes south on Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Canadian wildfires will have less of an impact on the area as
smoke is swept northward today. That being said, an air quality
alert remains in effect for portions of northwest and north-
central West Virginia where some impacts could linger through
tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Drier for much of the area on Monday, then another low swings across
southern Ontario while an upper trough digs down into the eastern US.
This system is projected to bring the next chance of strong storms
and heavy rain to the area Tuesday and Tuesday night. SPC has
already highlighted a 15 percent risk of severe weather on
Tuesday while WPC has placed much of the area within a slight
risk of excessive rainfall.

Surface high pressure builds as the trough shifts east, allowing
quieter weather to take hold later in the week. This dry spell may
be rather short-lived as the first in a series of disturbances
is expected to approach the area this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

A mix of MVFR to VFR ceilings will persist across the area while
showers and thunderstorms prompt sub-VFR visibilities at times
today. Conditions are expected to further deteriorate as a
front moves through overnight, bringing more rain and storms.
Fog may also develop behind the front early Sunday morning.
Conditions should then slowly improve to VFR during the day
Sunday.

Winds will generally be southwesterly today, then pivot to the
north behind the front overnight. In addition to sporadic gusts
into the teens to low 20s, stronger gusts will be possible
within storms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Expect flight conditions to fluctuate in
RA/TS. Timing of improvements on Sunday may vary from the
forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR valley fog possible Sunday/Monday mornings.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ007>011-
     016>020-029>032-039-040.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20

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