Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
442 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A new Tornado Watch has been issued for much of the area until
11am.

12Z Aviation Forecast Discussion update.

No major changes to the forecast at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Potential for strong to severe storms this morning through
the afternoon along with a threat for excessive rainfall as
a cold front moves through the area.

2) Drier start to the weekend but storm chances return by
Sunday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A Tornado Watch is out for northeast Kentucky counties of Cater
and Greenup until 5am. This is due to robust helicity, abundant
shear and a the STP tornado parameter of 1+ which indicates
possible tornadic environment not too mention tornadic activity
upstream.

Activity is already upstream and headed our way for the first
push of convection into the area although the threat is
weakening, therefore the watch is not being expanded anywhere.
This watch may have to be expanded if trends persist west into
our Ohio counties but the last tornado warning out west has
expired therefore currently holding off on expanding at this
time.

Hi-res and convection allowing models (CAMs) have another push of
convection in the form of a line settling in by mid morning.
The HRRR, FV3 and NAM Nest are most aggressive and suggest
potential super cellular activity with embedded thunderstorms
along a line progressing southeast into our area moving south
throughout the late morning and into the afternoon.

With enough instability for the late morning and afternoon
storms will be able to continue under a strong low level jet
support and high shear to promote a damaging wind threat as well
as tornadic threat with rotating showers possible along the
line or from super cellular storms. Even though prior
convection will weaken instability the line will have enough
support to keep going through the area, however it may not be as
potent as other models suggest.

The winds will be a thing to watch as shower and thunderstorm
activity will have a good environment with high DCAPE and high
PWATs to promote downbursts and heavy downpours which could
promote flooding potential, however it should be more isolated
in nature and be more apparent across low lying or flood prone
areas unless training occurs elsewhere. One caveat is that the
line will be moving fast with strong steering flow aloft which
may deter flash flooding all together this late morning and
afternoon.

Unless rates exceed flash flood guidance or rather
2+ inches per hour or high rates affect an area repeatedly or
under training will possibly cause issues to the aforementioned
areas and elsewhere. Shower activity could bring down strong
winds which could be damaging and severe but this will involve
convection rather than synoptic winds which made the decision of
holding off on a wind advisory being issued at this time.

By mid morning, the tornado threat diminishes and only a
damaging wind threat will remain, however we cannot rule out a
quick spin up along the line as the cold front sags south into
the southern portions of our county warning area. Due to our
radar being down it will be hard to detect low level rotation
therefore shower activity or heavy thunderstorm activity will
likely be warned on if there is any indication of rotation or a
meso even though the tornadic environment will be diminishing.

As the line exits toward the south another push of convection is
indicated by some of the Hi-res models coming in from the west
to affect our southern half of the area. This will add to QPF
values but the activity will be across our driest portions of
our CWA, so basically no flood watch is needed and will be
handled by the warning process.

WPC does have us in a slight risk for a excessive rainfall
threat for this area so isolated flooding issues could occur in
areas susceptible to flood or drainage issues. This activity
will be coming in behind the front, therefore much of the
instability will be used up so the environment should not pose
a severe threat.

After the aforementioned convection subsides things will clear
out and any activity will exit by early afternoon opening the
area up to a dry rest of the day on Friday and into the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure at the surface and a semi flat ridge aloft will
help keep the weekend settled although by late Sunday a low
pressure system will traverse into the region just north of us
and drop down a weak frontal band for Monday. Models have this
feature weakening as it comes through the area so frontolysis is
likely.

Thereafter, zonal flow will settle in and keep the area safe
until Thursday as a short wave moves into the region which could
promote chances for diurnal convection on next Thursday
afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As the cold front pushes further toward the area rain and
thunderstorms will become more prevalent and drop CIGs down to
MVFR toward late morning. VIS restrictions will accompany
shower activity and under heavy thunderstorm activity VIS could
drop to IFR at times. Winds will increase out of the southwest
gusting to 30kt by late morning.

Gusty conditons will prevail until the early evening as the
cold front sags south of the area. By evening, winds will
diminish and CIGs will lift to VFR except for EKN/BKW who will
endure MVFR CIGs into the evening and overnight. Clouds may
clear out around a few western sites to promote fog formation
overnight into Friday morning. If clouds clear out quicker fog
could potentially affect the other sites in mid to late
morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of shower and thunderstorm
activity could vary. Fog overnight into Friday morning could
become areawide dependent upon how fast the clouds move out.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               THU 06/18/26
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    M    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR ceilings may be possible with lingering showers along the
mountains Thursday night. IFR fog is possible overnight into
Friday morning.

&&

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
EQUIPMENT...JZ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
707 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 E Ripley              38.81N 81.65W
06/18/2026                   Jackson            WV   911 Call Center

            Tree and power lines down on Spencer Rd.

&&

ABE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
730 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     8 ENE Kermit            37.88N 82.28W
06/18/2026                   Mingo              WV   911 Call Center

            Several trees down in northern Mingo County
            including Stonecoal Rd, Low Gap Hollow Rd,
            Jennies Creek Rd, and Messenger Branch.

&&

ABE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
736 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 AM     Flash Flood      6 WNW Mcarthur          39.27N 82.59W
06/18/2026                   Vinton             OH   911 Call Center

            Occupied vehicle stranded in high water.

&&

ABE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
737 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0717 AM     Flash Flood      2 N Hamden              39.19N 82.53W
06/18/2026                   Vinton             OH   911 Call Center

            Flash flooding reported on Rt 683 in Clinton
            Township.

&&

ABE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
742 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     Flash Flood      Athens                  39.33N 82.10W
06/18/2026                   Athens             OH   911 Call Center

            Several instances of flash flooding in town
            along with one vehicle stuck in flood
            waters.

&&

ABE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
744 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     Flash Flood      2 S Vienna              39.29N 81.54W
06/18/2026                   Wood               WV   911 Call Center

            Vehicle stuck in knee deep water.

&&

ABE