Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
146 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe thunderstorm watch issued through 9 PM, primarily for
locally damaging wind gusts. Potential locally significant
flood impacts in areas that already received very heavy rain
today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening with damaging wind gusts being the primary hazard, with
wet soils tree damage may occur well below 58 mph.

2.) Flash flood risk continues through tonight, particularly
across northern West Virginia where training storms already
produced a swath of heavy rain this morning.

3.) Dense fog and/or very low stratus will likely develop late
tonight into Thursday morning.

4.) Dry and seasonable conditions return Thursday and will
largely persist through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A warm front has halted its northward progression and will
transition into a slow moving cold front this afternoon. Ahead
of this boundary, breaks in the cloud cover have allowed surface
based instability to build to 1500 to 2000 J/kg, capitalizing on
a moisture rich boundary layer despite weak mid-level lapse
rates. Deep layer shear of 25 to 30KTs will support a mix of
multicell and transient supercell structures. The primary severe
hazard will be damaging wind gusts. Given antecedent heavy
rainfall, soils are at least partially compromised across the
region. Consequently, tree uprooting is likely to occur at sub
severe wind speeds as low as 40 mph, with more substantial
damage possible in any 50 to 60 mph gusts. With low LCLs in
place, a brief tornado cannot be entirely ruled out, though weak
and largely unidirectional low level wind profiles suggest this
threat is minimal outside of storm scale interaction. High wet
bulb zeros near 11kft should limit hail risk outside of the
strongest updrafts or left splits.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Regarding the flash flood threat, while individual storm motions
remain progressive at 20 to 30KTs within westerly flow,
training of convection along the slowly sagging front could
allow for significant convective dwell time over any given spot.
The most critical area for flash flooding is along a line from
Spencer to Philippi, where additional training convection this
afternoon and evening will exacerbate conditions over soils that
are already compromised from morning rainfall. Elsewhere north
of US-50, training storms may yield minor to pockets of moderate
flooding issues. Father south across the Metro Valley,
scattered to numerous storms early this afternoon near the I-64
corridor will continue to precondition soils for rapid runoff
with later activity, although the later activity should become
more progressive by the time it crosses I-64 as a mid-level
short wave approaches this evening. Existing flash flood watch
in effect through 2 AM looks to cover this threat adequately,
with northern sections likely being able to be dropped early.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Tonight into Thursday, the aforementioned mid level wave will
sweep the front south of the area. However, the arrival of
substantially drier air will lag behind the frontal passage.
Amidst weakening surface winds and partially clearing skies from
the north, conditions will become highly favorable for the
development of dense fog and very low stratus late tonight into
Thursday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 4...

By Thursday afternoon, drier air will firmly settle across the
region, bringing a return to more seasonable temperatures and
generally quiet weather. A dry pattern is anticipated to persist
through the upcoming weekend. A weak backdoor cold front will
pass through on Saturday, serving mainly to reinforce the dry
airmass. This dry air could yield some chilly temperatures,
upper 30s to lower 40s in the mountain valleys for late May.
Looking ahead to early next week, a weak disturbance dropping
out of Canada may bring a return of light rain chances on
Monday, but the overall pattern appears largely dry.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to
impact the terminals this afternoon and evening as a cold front
slowly sags southward. Have utilized TEMPO groups for MVFR
conditions with the most likely timing of convection, as direct
terminal impacts remain difficult to pinpoint. However,
localized IFR restrictions are possible in the heaviest
downpours. Winds will generally remain light outside of
thunderstorms, occasionally gusting from the west or northwest.

As the front pushes south of the area tonight, precipitation
will wane. However, drier air will lag behind the boundary. The
combination of wet soils, clearing skies, and light winds will
set the stage for widespread fog and low stratus development
late tonight into Thursday morning. IFR to LIFR visibilities and
ceilings are expected to develop at most terminals after 06Z,
lingering through mid morning Thursday before mixing out to VFR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms could vary. Overnight fog density and coverage may
vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible in morning fog Saturday/Sunday mornings.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through late tonight for WVZ006>011-014>020-
     027>032-039-040-521-522-525-526.
OH...Flood Watch through late tonight for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ101>103.
VA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JP

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
339 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0312 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     7 SW Marmet             38.18N 81.68W
05/27/2026                   Boone              WV   Dept of Highways

            Trees and lines down along Ashford-Nellis Rd
            at Casey Fork. Tree is blocking the roadway.
            Time estimated from radar.

&&

JP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
344 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0304 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 NNW Danville          38.15N 81.87W
05/27/2026                   Boone              WV   911 Call Center

            Tree down on Middle Horse Creek Rd in
            Julian. Time estimated by radar.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
348 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0312 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     7 SW Marmet             38.18N 81.68W
05/27/2026                   Boone              WV   911 Call Center

            Tree down in the 4300 block of
            Ashford-Nellis Rd near Ashford, WV. Time
            estimated via radar.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
351 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     Flood            9 NNE Sand Fork         39.04N 80.70W
05/27/2026                   Lewis              WV   Dept of Highways

            High Water on CR 11 near Walnut Fork.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
353 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     Flood            3 WSW Belington         39.01N 79.99W
05/27/2026                   Barbour            WV   911 Call Center

            Flooding reported on Audrey Park Rd.

&&