Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
146 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe thunderstorm watch issued through 9 PM, primarily for
locally damaging wind gusts. Potential locally significant
flood impacts in areas that already received very heavy rain
today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening with damaging wind gusts being the primary hazard, with
wet soils tree damage may occur well below 58 mph.

2.) Flash flood risk continues through tonight, particularly
across northern West Virginia where training storms already
produced a swath of heavy rain this morning.

3.) Dense fog and/or very low stratus will likely develop late
tonight into Thursday morning.

4.) Dry and seasonable conditions return Thursday and will
largely persist through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A warm front has halted its northward progression and will
transition into a slow moving cold front this afternoon. Ahead
of this boundary, breaks in the cloud cover have allowed surface
based instability to build to 1500 to 2000 J/kg, capitalizing on
a moisture rich boundary layer despite weak mid-level lapse
rates. Deep layer shear of 25 to 30KTs will support a mix of
multicell and transient supercell structures. The primary severe
hazard will be damaging wind gusts. Given antecedent heavy
rainfall, soils are at least partially compromised across the
region. Consequently, tree uprooting is likely to occur at sub
severe wind speeds as low as 40 mph, with more substantial
damage possible in any 50 to 60 mph gusts. With low LCLs in
place, a brief tornado cannot be entirely ruled out, though weak
and largely unidirectional low level wind profiles suggest this
threat is minimal outside of storm scale interaction. High wet
bulb zeros near 11kft should limit hail risk outside of the
strongest updrafts or left splits.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Regarding the flash flood threat, while individual storm motions
remain progressive at 20 to 30KTs within westerly flow,
training of convection along the slowly sagging front could
allow for significant convective dwell time over any given spot.
The most critical area for flash flooding is along a line from
Spencer to Philippi, where additional training convection this
afternoon and evening will exacerbate conditions over soils that
are already compromised from morning rainfall. Elsewhere north
of US-50, training storms may yield minor to pockets of moderate
flooding issues. Father south across the Metro Valley,
scattered to numerous storms early this afternoon near the I-64
corridor will continue to precondition soils for rapid runoff
with later activity, although the later activity should become
more progressive by the time it crosses I-64 as a mid-level
short wave approaches this evening. Existing flash flood watch
in effect through 2 AM looks to cover this threat adequately,
with northern sections likely being able to be dropped early.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Tonight into Thursday, the aforementioned mid level wave will
sweep the front south of the area. However, the arrival of
substantially drier air will lag behind the frontal passage.
Amidst weakening surface winds and partially clearing skies from
the north, conditions will become highly favorable for the
development of dense fog and very low stratus late tonight into
Thursday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 4...

By Thursday afternoon, drier air will firmly settle across the
region, bringing a return to more seasonable temperatures and
generally quiet weather. A dry pattern is anticipated to persist
through the upcoming weekend. A weak backdoor cold front will
pass through on Saturday, serving mainly to reinforce the dry
airmass. This dry air could yield some chilly temperatures,
upper 30s to lower 40s in the mountain valleys for late May.
Looking ahead to early next week, a weak disturbance dropping
out of Canada may bring a return of light rain chances on
Monday, but the overall pattern appears largely dry.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to
impact the terminals this afternoon and evening as a cold front
slowly sags southward. Have utilized TEMPO groups for MVFR
conditions with the most likely timing of convection, as direct
terminal impacts remain difficult to pinpoint. However,
localized IFR restrictions are possible in the heaviest
downpours. Winds will generally remain light outside of
thunderstorms, occasionally gusting from the west or northwest.

As the front pushes south of the area tonight, precipitation
will wane. However, drier air will lag behind the boundary. The
combination of wet soils, clearing skies, and light winds will
set the stage for widespread fog and low stratus development
late tonight into Thursday morning. IFR to LIFR visibilities and
ceilings are expected to develop at most terminals after 06Z,
lingering through mid morning Thursday before mixing out to VFR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms could vary. Overnight fog density and coverage may
vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible in morning fog Saturday/Sunday mornings.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through late tonight for WVZ006>011-014>020-
     027>032-039-040-521-522-525-526.
OH...Flood Watch through late tonight for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ101>103.
VA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1125 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 AM     Flash Flood      2 S Philippi            39.12N 80.04W
05/27/2026                   Barbour            WV   Amateur Radio

            High water reported along Union Road.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1232 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     Flash Flood      2 NE Glenville          38.96N 80.81W
05/27/2026                   Gilmer             WV   Broadcast Media

            Stewart Creek out of its banks and flooding
            portions of US Route 33.

&&

Webb

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
102 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

OHZ066-067-271730-
Morgan OH-Perry OH-
102 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN PERRY AND
NORTHWESTERN MORGAN COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM EDT...

At 102 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Perry State Forest, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
New Lexington, Perry State Forest, Crooksville, Rendville, and
Eagleport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3985 8217 3982 8217 3982 8207 3977 8208
      3977 8192 3975 8187 3958 8202 3972 8225
      3986 8221
TIME...MOT...LOC 1702Z 290DEG 21KT 3975 8216

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

5

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
224 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

WVZ005-006-013>015-026-271900-
Boone WV-Kanawha WV-Lincoln WV-Wayne WV-Cabell WV-Putnam WV-
224 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL CABELL...WEST
CENTRAL KANAWHA...SOUTHWESTERN PUTNAM...LINCOLN...EAST CENTRAL WAYNE
AND NORTHWESTERN BOONE COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT...

At 224 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ranger, or 7 miles southwest of Hamlin, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hamlin, St. Albans, Ranger, Alum Creek, Spurlockville, Tornado,
Julian, West Hamlin, Sweetland, Sod, Woodville, Branchland, Palermo,
Griffithsville, Alkol, Yawkey, and Myra.

This includes Route 119 between mile markers 55 and 68.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
central and western West Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3810 8230 3828 8233 3839 8182 3812 8177
TIME...MOT...LOC 1824Z 261DEG 29KT 3821 8222

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

5

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