Flash Flood Warning 58, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
236 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Elected to extend the Flood Watch across parts of KY, WV, and VA
into late Sunday evening to account for the slow departure of
the cold front. Across our northern zones, flash flooding
concerns diminish after tonight, so the Watch remains on
schedule to expire Sunday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Flash flooding concerns spill into Sunday amid a slow
departure of a cold front. Slow moving showers and storms
containing heavy downpours will exacerbate already saturated
soils today and Sunday.

2) Turning dry and warmer for the new week before returning to
an unsettled state after Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Afternoon radar trends have ramped up over the past few hours
under the guise of embedded shortwave energy riding along a
west-east oriented frontal boundary draped just north of the
forecast area. This places the bulk of the Central Appalachians
within a humid and unstable environment conducive for the rapid
development of showers and storms today into this evening. These
slowly propagating cells containing heavy downpours equivalent
to 1-3"/hr will provoke already saturated soils and lead to
areas of flash flooding. There has already been evidence of
these heavy rain producers across parts of southeast Ohio as
well as our southern coalfields today, leading to several
reports of flooded roadways. Concerns for additional flash
flooding continues through the daytime hours before gradually
diminishing with the loss of daytime heating.

The quasi-stationary front will slowly propagate southward
overnight into Sunday, but will fail to make a full exodus from
the area. As a result, shower and storm coverage will appear
once more across the southern half of the CWA for Sunday
afternoon. With little to no chance for soil recovery across the
coalfields, opted to extend the Flood Watch for northeast
Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and southwest Virginia through
Sunday evening to account for the additional rainfall potential.
Our northern zones will become less susceptible to flash
flooding on Sunday in response to the southward trajectory of
the frontal boundary, allowing the current Watch to expire
Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Once the frontal boundary slips southward towards the Gulf coast
beginning on Monday, drier weather takes hold amid upper level
ridging taking center stage. This feature will yield a warming
trend, returning afternoon high temperatures into the mid to
upper 90s for much of the lower elevations. Coupled with
slightly increasing moisture/humidity, heat indices nose up
into the upper 90s by midweek. Uncertainty still lies in the
latter half of the week forecast period, where periodic
disturbances bring unsettled weather back to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Scattered shower and thunderstorm development is underway this
afternoon, leading to brief surface visibility restrictions.
MVFR cloud deck that has permeated over the area this morning
has begun to erode, allowing for convective development to
transpire. After sunset, storm activity will diminish and give
way to another night of IFR/LIFR potential amid low stratus,
fog, and lingering showers heading into Sunday morning. Light
and variable surface winds rule the roost through the TAF
period, but isolated thunderstorm wind gusts could nose into our
terminals this afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions in showers and storms today may
vary from the forecast. Onset timing of low stratus and fog late
tonight into Sunday morning may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions associated with showers and thunderstorms remain
possible through Sunday evening. IFR conditions are also
possible with fog and/or stratus each night and early morning,
especially across valley locations.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for WVZ005-006-013>015-
     024>026-033-034-515>518.
     Flood Watch through Sunday morning for WVZ007>011-016>020-
     027>032-039-040-519>526.
OH...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for OHZ087.
     Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ067-075-076-083>086.
KY...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for VAZ003-004.

&&

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1230 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1228 PM     Flash Flood      1 SSW Welch             37.42N 81.58W
07/11/2026                   McDowell           WV   911 Call Center

            McDowell County 911 is receiving county wide
            reports of high water covering roadways
            including Welch.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1231 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     Flash Flood      2 N Hurley              37.44N 82.02W
07/11/2026                   Buchanan           VA   911 Call Center

            Buchanan County 911 center is receiving
            reports of high water in multiple spots
            along Guesses Fork Rd north of Hurley.

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
235 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     Flash Flood      Anawalt                 37.34N 81.44W
07/11/2026                   McDowell           WV   Public

            High water reported across portions of
            Anawalt.

&&

JP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
237 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     Flash Flood      5 SW Welch              37.39N 81.66W
07/11/2026                   McDowell           WV   Public

            Clear Fork out of its banks in Coalwood.

&&

JP