Flash Flood Warning 244, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
244 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
18Z Aviation Forecast update. Elected to extend the Flood Watch
through Wednesday evening to capture additional rainfall
expected tonight into tomorrow.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Continuation of heavy rain from slow moving showers and
thunderstorms will maintain the risk of localized flash
flooding through at least Wednesday evening.

2.) Gradually turning drier on Thursday into the first weekend
of Autumn, with temperatures cooling off into the lower to mid
70s during the day and overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid
50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Surface level pressure analysis this afternoon shows an
anticipated inverted trough firmly over the eastern forecast
area. Radar trends at the time of writing painted a line of slow
moving showers forming over the Charleston metro and climbing up
the I-79 corridor. These low topped showers appear to be
following light southwesterly flow per forecast soundings, with
the slow nature prompting close monitoring for potential flash
flooding. This is especially true for the northern half of the
forecast area, where 1hr-FFG remains below an inch. While
rainfall rates seem to be manageable thus far this afternoon,
will have to keep in mind the highly sensitive soils throughout
the course of the evening and overnight.

Model guidance suggests a slightly northwestern push of
precipitation late tonight into Wednesday morning as surface low
pressure begins to churn offshore. Mid to upper level troughing
closes off into low pressure, which will continue to provide
nutritional moisture for additional showers and thunderstorms
heading into Wednesday. With concern of more rain and already
compromised soils, opted to extend the Flood Watch in time
through Wednesday evening to encompass this longer period of
rainfall and flash flooding monitoring. May also need to
consider an expansion in counties if confidence grows for rain
to park over the Ohio River Valley.

The center of the upper low dismantles back into an open wave
Thursday morning, with shower coverage slowly diminishing from
north to south.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Lingering showers over the mountains come to an end on Thursday
in response to building high pressure at the surface and ridging
aloft. These two features will work in tandem to advertise a
stretch of dry weather for the end of the work week into the
weekend. Cooler air filtering in from the northwest will yield
temperatures that will resemble Autumn, and a welcome reprieve
from the stretch of heat noted over the past few weeks. Daytime
highs will struggle to topple over the 70 degree mark from
Thursday onward, while overnight lows range in the 40s to 50s
each night through the weekend.

A classic overrunning profile observed on forecast soundings
for today and Wednesday will keep the area entrenched beneath
overcast skies for the next few days. As the advancing ridge and
surface high build into the area, we should see clearing skies
branch out as early as Thursday evening.

Next weather maker on the horizon does not look to approach the
area until sometime around the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Widespread stratus remains entrenched over the forecast area
today amid nearby low pressure. As a result, a variety of sub-
VFR conditions prevails at our TAF sites this afternoon, with
not much room for improvement expected. Showers and potential
thunderstorms will sprout through the course of the afternoon
and evening, which could impose brief visibility restrictions
and an uptick in winds.

Ceiling and visibility restrictions caused by fog and low
stratus stretches into the overnight hours through Wednesday.
Another day of blanketed stratus triumphs through the end of the
valid TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings and visibilities obstructed by a
combination of fog, stratus, and thunderstorms may vary from
forecast through the period.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers and storms through
Wednesday night. IFR stratus/fog possible Wednesday night into
Thursday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for OHZ076.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05