Flash Flood Warning 240, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
737 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Episodic rounds of showers and thunderstorms attached with heavy
rainfall looks to prevail into Wednesday morning, leading to
additional potential for flash flooding. With that in mind,
opted to extend the Flood Watch in time and also revamp the
coverage of the Watch to include more of our West Virginia
counties. Rain chances stretch through the overnight hours,
amplifying concerns of nighttime flash flooding.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.)Flash flooding concerns stretch into midweek amid periods of
heavy showers and thunderstorms. Nighttime flash flooding will
be possible tonight and Tuesday night across the area, so ensure
you have multiple ways of receiving warnings that may be issued
over the next few days.

2.) Turning noticeably cooler and drier late in the work week
into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Satellite and radar trends at the time of writing place the
bulk of the forecast area within clear skies and quiet weather
after the slow departure of overnight/early morning convective
complexes that rolled through. However, will have to monitor
developing cumulus fields across central and eastern Kentucky,
as this will provide the next round of showers and storms slated
for later this evening.

Hi-res simulated reflectivity models show another signal of
overnight shower and thunderstorm potential setting up
additional flash flooding concerns heading into Tuesday morning.
The QPF forecast shifts the attention off of an already
battered southeast Ohio east of the river to mainly West
Virginia. Scattered showers and storms are progged to form late
in the night in similar fashion to last night, stirring up
overnight flash flooding issues. Locally higher amounts of rain
could yield the use of amplified flash flood warning messaging,
so ensure you have ways of receiving a warning that could be
issued overnight.

Flash flooding concerns, while still dependent on where the
axis of heaviest rainfall sets up over the next few days, will
be highest across northeast WV and down the spine of the
Appalachians. An inverted trough feature setting up over this
region, in tandem with a coastal low riding up along the eastern
seaboard, will promote episodic rounds of showers and storms
through midweek. This could set the stage for one to two inches
of additional rainfall to arise. With that in mind, opted to
extend the Flood Watch through Wednesday morning as we finish
the last few days of active weather before a period of dry
weather reaches the Central Appalachians.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The upper level low that has remained trapped overhead will
finally track offshore heading into the end of the work week.
Strong subsidence and northwest flow prompted by a building
ridge will help to evacuate any lingering moisture over the
region. Quiet and pleasant fall-like weather enters the forecast
for most on Thursday, outside of a rogue shower or storm still
hovering over the higher terrain. Daytime temperature spread of
the 60s to low 70s will topple down to cool, crisp overnight
lows spanning the upper 30s to upper 40s. While clouds will be
slow to lift and erode on Thursday, ample sunshine by Friday
will lead the charge to what is looking to be a Chamber of
Commerce weather weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A frontal boundary will remain across the area tonight and
Tuesday. Expect ceilings to collapse to IFR or low MVFR north
of the boundary this evening, continuing to lower toward
morning. The ceilings north of the boundary will slowly improve
to MVFR on Tuesday.

Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms along the boundary,
with some possible south of the boundary. Outside of the
thunderstorms south of the boundary, generally VFR conditions
will prevail.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and intensity of showers
and thunderstorms could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 TUE
UTC 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
EDT 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    H    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms each day
through mid week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for OHZ076.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...RPY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
912 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

WVZ028-030-039-521-525-220145-
Northwest Randolph WV-Northwest Webster WV-Upshur WV-Lewis WV-
Braxton WV-
912 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LEWIS...EASTERN
BRAXTON...SOUTHWESTERN UPSHUR AND NORTH CENTRAL WEBSTER COUNTIES
THROUGH 945 PM EDT...

At 912 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 8 miles northeast of Sutton, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sutton, Rock Cave, Holly River State Park, Flatwoods, Alexander,
Eden, Cleveland, Helvetia, Exchange, Heaters, Walkersville, Kanawha
Head, Ireland, Centralia, Falls Mills, and French Creek.

This includes Interstate 79 between mile markers 60 and 75.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3859 8070 3876 8082 3894 8030 3870 8016
TIME...MOT...LOC 0112Z 247DEG 34KT 3873 8057

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

01

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
928 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

VAZ004-WVZ033-034-220200-
Buchanan VA-Wyoming WV-McDowell WV-
928 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL BUCHANAN...NORTHERN
MCDOWELL AND CENTRAL WYOMING COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 PM EDT...

At 927 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 7 miles southeast of Hanover, or 8 miles northwest of
Welch, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Welch, Pineville, Mullens, Hanover, Twin Falls State Park, Gilbert
Creek, Davy, Bradshaw, Iaeger, Clear Fork, Panther, Stacy, Hurley,
Avondale, Wolf Pen, Baileysville, and Herndon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3746 8208 3749 8204 3753 8195 3751 8194
      3751 8193 3753 8191 3752 8190 3754 8189
      3754 8187 3755 8185 3757 8185 3773 8144
      3748 8133 3730 8200
TIME...MOT...LOC 0127Z 247DEG 49KT 3749 8171

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

01

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
945 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

WVZ028>030-039-521-220215-
Northwest Webster WV-Upshur WV-Lewis WV-Gilmer WV-Braxton WV-
945 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN GILMER...LEWIS...
NORTHEASTERN BRAXTON...NORTHWESTERN UPSHUR AND NORTH CENTRAL WEBSTER
COUNTIES THROUGH 1015 PM EDT...

At 945 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southwest of Stonewall Jackson, or 10 miles south of Weston,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Buckhannon, Weston, Stonewall Jackson, Jackson Mill, Rock Cave,
Burnsville, Sand Fork, Camden, Baldwin, Lorentz, Stouts Mills, Sand
Run, Cleveland, Heaters, Walkersville, Alum Bridge, Kanawha Head,
Ireland, Linn, and Tallmansville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 79 between mile markers 73 and 103.
 Route 33 between mile markers 1 and 17.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3864 8044 3888 8085 3914 8062 3899 8009
TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 218DEG 22KT 3890 8055

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

01

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
953 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 ENE Fort Gay          38.14N 82.54W
09/21/2026                   Wayne              WV   Utility Company

            Tree on power line.

&&

RPY

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
955 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 ESE Fort Gay          38.10N 82.55W
09/21/2026                   Wayne              WV   Utility Company

            Tree on power line.

&&

RPY

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1011 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0434 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 N Crab Orchard        37.75N 81.23W
09/21/2026                   Raleigh            WV   911 Call Center

            Tree down on Crab Orchard Avenue.

&&

RPY