Tornado Warning 1, NWS Raleigh, NC

992 
WWUS52 KRAH 161427
SVSRAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1027 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

NCC057-067-081-161445-
/O.CON.KRAH.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260316T1445Z/
Forsyth NC-Davidson NC-Guilford NC-
1027 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 AM EDT FOR EASTERN
FORSYTH...NORTHEASTERN DAVIDSON AND NORTHWESTERN GUILFORD COUNTIES...

At 1027 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Kernersville, or 8 miles east of Winston-Salem,
moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Greensboro and Kernersville around 1030 AM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Jamestown, Walkertown, Sedge Garden, Stokesdale, and Summerfield.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 85 Mile Marker 33 and near Mile Marker 120.
 Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 196 and 216.
 Interstate 73 between Mile Markers 97 and 103.
 Interstate 74 between Mile Markers 56 and 68.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Motorists should not take shelter under highway overpasses. If you
cannot safely drive away from the tornado, as a last resort, either
park your vehicle and stay put, or abandon your vehicle and lie down
in a low lying area and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3625 8019 3625 7988 3600 7984 3597 8020
      3615 8020
TIME...MOT...LOC 1427Z 243DEG 44KT 3615 8012 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

GIH

366 
WWUS52 KRAH 161441
SVSRAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1041 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

NCC057-067-081-161450-
/O.EXP.KRAH.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260316T1445Z/
Forsyth NC-Davidson NC-Guilford NC-
1041 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EASTERN FORSYTH...NORTHEASTERN DAVIDSON
AND NORTHWESTERN GUILFORD COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1045 AM EDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire. However, wind 
gusts over 50 mph are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 PM EDT for central North
Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3625 8019 3625 7988 3600 7984 3597 8020
      3615 8020
TIME...MOT...LOC 1440Z 244DEG 46KT 3621 7996 

$$

GIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
650 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 650 AM Monday...

* The aviation forecast was updated to reflect the recent 12z TAF
  issuance.

* Minor tweaks to lower large hail potential today, but
  otherwise the expected severe hazards, and their severity,
  remain unchanged. Severe to locally significant wind gusts
  remain the primary hazard.

* Lower temperatures for Wednesday morning with temperatures as
  low as 12 to 16 degrees below normal.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 340 AM Monday...

1) The potential remains for widespread severe weather Monday,
some significant (eg. EF2 or stronger tornado and 75 mph or
greater gusts), highlighted with a Level 4 of 5 Moderate Risk.

2) Wind gusts between 30 and 40 mph will occur away from storms
throughout the day and may briefly maximize between 40-50 mph
immediately ahead of and behind a cold front as it progresses
across the forecast area.

3) Cooler than normal temperatures are expected for Tuesday
morning through Thursday morning across central NC, with
temperatures running as much as 15–20 degrees below mid-March
averages.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 340 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... The potential remains for widespread severe
weather today, some significant (eg. EF2 or stronger tornado
and 75 mph or greater gusts), highlighted with a Level 4 of 5
Moderate Risk.

A low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to dive into the
basal portion of a highly amplified trough currently progressing
through Mid-Mississippi Valley. This process will provide a
significant strengthening of the mid-level jet streak to 75 to
125 kts as it negatively tilts across the southern Appalachians
this afternoon. At the surface, a lead pre-frontal trough and/or
convective outflow from the ongoing QLCS over the OH/TN
Valley's this morning combined with increasingly perturbed and
moist mid-level flow will act to trigger and focus additional
widespread convection over the Carolinas and southern Mid-
Atlantic this morning.

This morning: Hi-res guidance suggests the air mass immediately
ahead of the convective line will remain surface-based into the
western Piedmont as it progresses into our forecast area. With
strong speed shear in the lowest 3km and slightly veering winds,
bowing line segments capable of severe wind gusts and quick spin up
tornadoes will be possible, especially along and north of any
bowing segments and line breaks. Farther to the east (eastern
Piedmont, Sandhills, and Coastal Plain), scattered to widespread
weakly elevated showers and thunderstorms are expected to
blossom over the area from 13-15z as PWAT values of > 1.5" and
500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE surge into this region. Messy convective
mode is expected given high likelihood of storm interactions
and initially weaker shear of 25 to 35 kts. Deeper cores may
still bring down strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps some
hail as well, especially with weakly counter-clockwise backing
aloft supportive of left-moving cells.

Late this morning into early this evening: ** This will be the
main window for widespread severe weather and when locally
significant storms may develop.** As we approach noon, continued
warm/moist southerly flow will promote widespread surface-based
convection within 500-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE, highest across the
Coastal Plain, and strengthening deep-layer shear of 40 to 60
kts. During this time, updrafts will become stronger and more
organized and promote a widespread risk for damaging wind gusts,
some locally significant (greater than 75 mph), and tornadoes.
Strength and longevity of any tornados will largely depend on
the main convective mode. With so many storms, linear mode
appears the most likely, although there are hints in the hi-res
guidance of line breaks and supercellular characteristics. If
this were to occur, favorable looping, low- level shear profiles
and a high percentage of streamwise vorticity would support
longer lived tornadic cells which would be capable of a
significant tornado damage (EF-2+) and potentially long tracked
in nature as long as its inflow can remain clear of additional
convection. In the absence of these discrete cells, strong
momentum aloft may be easily transported to the surface from any
moderate downdraft and support severe wind gust with
significant wind gusts most probable in locally bowing segments.

Late this afternoon into this evening: The primary severe
hazard and where significant severe weather is most probable, is
expected to be shifting east of our area. A brief lull in
precipitation falling from the sky is possible ahead of the
approaching synoptic front (see key message 2 below on enhanced
gradient wind potential during this time period). Hi-res
guidance nicely depicts a narrow cold frontal rainband which
will also be capable of strong wind gusts through CAA and
efficient momentum transfer to the surface. Wind gusts as high
as 50 mph from CAA alone may be possible. Mixed character
stratiform rain with some embedded showers remain likely behind
the front for a few hours before shifting north and east of our
area after roughly 9-11 PM. Dependent on if instability can
redevelop along the ahead of the synoptic cold front, an
additional round of severe to locally significant storms would
be possible, with accompanying hazards of severe wind gusts and
quick spin up tornadoes as well.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Wind gusts between 30 and 40 mph will occur
away from storms throughout the day and may briefly maximize
between 40-50 mph immediately ahead of and behind a cold front
as it progresses across the forecast area.

In the wake of the main convective activity of the day, a brief
lull in precipitation will be possible and when boundary layer
deepening is most possible with subsidence between the synoptic
cold front and ongoing convection in the Coastal Plain is
probable. During this time and immediately behind the cold
front, 30 to 40 mph wind gusts appear likely and may briefly
increase to 40 to 50 mph around the frontal-passage. A Wind
Advisory was considered, but given the potential for weak
instability and the redevelopment of convection along the
front, have opted to hold off for now with this threat likely to
be handled with convective products (Special Weather Statements
and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings). If the main convective
activity scours out any instability and convection appears
unlikely along the front, a short-fused Wind Advisory may be
needed.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Cooler than normal temperatures are expected
for Tuesday morning through Thursday morning across central NC,
with temperatures running as much as 15–20 degrees below mid-
March averages.

After the passage of Monday's cold front, the region will
return to a period of below normal temperatures as chilly
Canadian high pressure builds in overhead. Below normal
temperatures will start Monday night as cold air starts to
filter into the region, dropping low temperatures back to or
below freezing for much of the CWA. Adjusted low temperatures
for Wednesday morning below NBM guidance as low level thickness
values will drop into the 1275 to 1285m range supporting lows in
the lower to mid 20s which is about 12 to 16 degrees below
average. Lows will moderate a bit into the mid 20s to around 30
on Thursday morning. After this, low temperatures will trend
back near to above normal.

High temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday should generally
range in the mid 40s to around 50. A warming trend will then
bring temperatures back near to above normal Thursday through
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 650 AM Monday...

24 hour TAF period: A very strong storm system and an
associated cold front will sweep across the region today
bringing gusty winds throughout the TAF period and strong to
severe thunderstorms later this morning into the late
afternoon/early evening hours.

Widespread MVFR conditions with CIGS of around 1-1.5kft mixed with
VFR conditions across southern and southeastern areas will persist
through mid-morning. Scattered showers will result in MVFR VSBYS at
times. Strong winds of 40-50kts at 1-2kft will result in some LLWS
conditions for the next or two before mixing develops and removes
the LLWS.

A complex evolution of showers and storms will take place
across central NC from mid morning through the late afternoon.
Clusters of thunderstorms are apt to develop across the
Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain from daybreak through mid
morning and then lift northeast. A more significant band of
thunderstorms will move from west to east across central NC late
this morning and this afternoon. These storms will most likely be in
the Triad area between 15 and 20Z, the Triangle between 16 and 22z
and the rest of the area between 18 and 23Z. These storms are
capable of producing wind gusts in excess of 50 mph and possibly a
few tornadoes. In addition, gradient winds will be very strong
gusting to 35 kts for much of the day into the early evening. The
showers and storms will end from west to east and clear all of
central NC between 21 to 02Z.

Outlook for Tuesday and beyond: VFR conditions are generally
expected for Tuesday through Friday. Gusty winds up to 20 to 25
kts are possible on Tuesday afternoon. Some VFR CIGS at around
6kft are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday, otherwise fair
weather is expected through the period. -Blaes

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...AS/Blaes
AVIATION...Blaes

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
530 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-170930-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
530 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A strong cold front will sweep across the region this afternoon and
evening. Multiple waves of strong to severe thunderstorms with
damaging wind gusts up to 60 to 75 mph will spread across portions
of central NC through the late afternoon and early evening hours. A
few tornadoes are also possible. The greatest severe weather risk
will be across the eastern Piedmont, the Sandhills and Coastal Plain.
Additionally, wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected throughout the
day, even away from storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
847 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

NCZ042-077-088-089-161330-
Johnston NC-Sampson NC-Harnett NC-Cumberland NC-
847 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN SAMPSON...EASTERN
HARNETT...CENTRAL CUMBERLAND AND JOHNSTON COUNTIES THROUGH 930 AM
EDT...

At 846 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fayetteville, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fayetteville, Smithfield, Clayton, Dunn, Benson, Godwin, Hope Mills,
Micro, Selma, and Erwin.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 95 between Mile Markers 107 and 41.
 Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 311 and 343.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3495 7894 3508 7891 3552 7871 3571 7845
      3582 7826 3576 7824 3575 7822 3573 7821
      3573 7819 3571 7816 3561 7813 3558 7807
      3541 7816 3532 7825 3532 7827 3531 7829
      3528 7830 3513 7845 3486 7886
TIME...MOT...LOC 1246Z 220DEG 47KT 3503 7880

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
913 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

NCZ011-027-028-043-161415-
Edgecombe NC-Nash NC-Halifax NC-Wilson NC-
913 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NASH...NORTHWESTERN EDGECOMBE...
HALIFAX AND WESTERN WILSON COUNTIES THROUGH 1015 AM EDT...

At 911 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bailey, or 11 miles southwest of Nashville, moving northeast at 65
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Rocky Mount, Roanoke Rapids, Nashville, Halifax, Wilson, Elm City,
Dortches, Littleton, Bailey, and Red Oak.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 95 between Mile Markers 173 and 116.
 NC Highway 264 between Mile Markers 23 and 38.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 PM EDT for central North
Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 7775 3648 7764 3644 7762 3641 7755
      3637 7755 3634 7759 3632 7757 3630 7754
      3632 7744 3626 7740 3585 7777 3559 7807
      3561 7813 3571 7816 3574 7822 3582 7826
      3630 7794 3651 7790
TIME...MOT...LOC 1311Z 213DEG 56KT 3585 7810

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
918 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

NCZ089-161400-
Sampson NC-
918 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN SAMPSON COUNTY THROUGH
1000 AM EDT...

At 917 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Elizabethtown, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Clinton, Harrells, Garland, Turkey, and Ivanhoe.

This includes Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 347 and 359.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 PM EDT for central North
Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3458 7826 3461 7831 3467 7832 3470 7837
      3475 7839 3478 7843 3483 7846 3484 7849
      3486 7850 3524 7827 3520 7816 3509 7817
      3508 7816 3490 7815 3474 7820 3471 7813
      3472 7811 3471 7811 3468 7816 3455 7825
TIME...MOT...LOC 1317Z 219DEG 50KT 3464 7854

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
931 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

NCZ088-089-161415-
Sampson NC-Cumberland NC-
931 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL SAMPSON AND SOUTHEASTERN
CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THROUGH 1015 AM EDT...

At 930 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
White Oak, or 9 miles north of Elizabethtown, moving northeast at 55
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Clinton, Roseboro, Newton Grove, Salemburg, Turkey, Autryville,
Hobbton, and Bushy Lake Natural Area.

This includes Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 343 and 359.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Doppler radar has indicated weak rotation with this storm. If the
storm intensifies and rotation strengthens, a warning may need to be
issued.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 PM EDT for central North
Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3485 7850 3485 7875 3500 7865 3528 7830
      3522 7824 3520 7816 3509 7817 3508 7816
      3500 7815 3479 7844
TIME...MOT...LOC 1330Z 222DEG 49KT 3476 7865

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
945 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

NCZ042-077-088-089-161430-
Johnston NC-Sampson NC-Harnett NC-Cumberland NC-
945 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

...GUSTY SHOWERS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN SAMPSON...SOUTHEASTERN
HARNETT...NORTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND AND JOHNSTON COUNTIES THROUGH 1030
AM EDT...

At 944 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking gusty showers between
Fayetteville and Smithfield, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Fayetteville, Smithfield, Clayton, Dunn, Benson, Godwin, Micro,
Selma, Erwin, and Eastover.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 95 between Mile Markers 107 and 52.
 Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 316 and 342.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 PM EDT for central North
Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3511 7893 3522 7888 3570 7847 3582 7826
      3576 7824 3573 7821 3573 7819 3571 7816
      3561 7813 3558 7807 3542 7816 3539 7814
      3537 7816 3535 7816 3532 7829 3528 7830
      3500 7865 3493 7869
TIME...MOT...LOC 1344Z 221DEG 48KT 3514 7870

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
949 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

NCZ021-022-038-039-073-074-161430-
Guilford NC-Stanly NC-Forsyth NC-Randolph NC-Davidson NC-
Montgomery NC-
949 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT FORSYTH...DAVIDSON...NORTHWESTERN
MONTGOMERY...WESTERN RANDOLPH...CENTRAL STANLY AND WESTERN GUILFORD
COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 AM EDT...

At 948 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Woodville to China Grove. Movement was
east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Greensboro, Winston-Salem, High Point, Asheboro, Lexington,
Albemarle, Randleman, Badin Lake, Thomasville, and Kernersville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 85 between Mile Markers 33 and 35, and between Mile
Markers 84 and 125.
 Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 182 and 223.
 Interstate 73 between Mile Markers 63 and 103.
 Interstate 74 between Mile Markers 56 and 79.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 PM EDT for central North
Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 8030 3551 8018 3558 8021 3568 8033
      3572 8033 3574 8046 3583 8049 3584 8039
      3588 8042 3589 8037 3601 8042 3606 8046
      3604 8049 3608 8052 3611 8050 3614 8044
      3626 8045 3625 7972 3550 7980 3519 8050
TIME...MOT...LOC 1348Z 262DEG 41KT 3653 8051 3556 8060

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

GIH