Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
305 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 305 PM Monday...

* Today's severe storm threat has been limited somewhat by the
  detrimental effects of the early-morning convection on
  instability, but a risk of isolated tornadoes persists in our far
  east, plus a second threat of strong straight line winds will
  accompany the frontal passage late afternoon through mid evening.

* Increased confidence in much below normal temperatures from late
  tonight through Wed night, although readings should not reach
  record cold values.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 305 PM Monday...

1) Despite the stabilizing and overturning effects of this morning's
convection, the risk of isolated tornadoes persists in our Coastal
Plain this afternoon, and a secondary peak risk of strong straight
line winds will arrive with frontal passage late this afternoon
through mid evening.

2) Much below normal temperatures are expected late tonight through
mid week, with the coldest temperatures Wed morning. Readings will
be as low as 12-18 degrees below normal, including highs only in the
mid 40s to low 50s Tue and Wed, with a morning frost or freeze
likely.

3) Dry weather is likely to hold through early next week, but we're
watching the potential for a few showers and storms with a front
moving in from the north late Sun into Mon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 305 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Despite the stabilizing and overturning effects of
this morning's convection, the risk of isolated tornadoes persists
in our Coastal Plain this afternoon, and a secondary peak risk of
strong straight line winds will arrive with frontal passage late
this afternoon through mid evening.

The anomalously deep mid level trough extending from MI south
through the Mid South will continue to swing E through tonight, with
one vort max pivoting ENE through W NC by early evening. Today's
wind field from the surface up through the mid/upper levels has
unfolded much as expected, with high low level SRH in the prefrontal
warm sector followed by a broken QLCS moving through the area, but
the numerous convective elements late last night through this
morning have greatly hindered the potential instability. While we've
seen a few weak circulations ahead of the line, much of this has
been E of our CWA thus far where the CINH has yielded to weak-mdt
CAPE with modest heating and low level theta-e advection. We had
numerous trees downed with the QLCS along with several bowing
segments, but none generated more than weak circulations, and
surface observations recorded generally sub-severe gusts. That said,
we continue to see wavy lines in our far E, within sufficiently high
deep layer bulk shear and 0-1 km SRH over 100 m2/s2. And we expect a
second thin convective line with fropa from late this afternoon
through the mid evening which will bring another round of strong to
possibly severe straight line gusts. Even outside of any convection,
sustained winds 15-20 mph and gusts to 25-35 mph will be common. All
activity should push east of the CWA by 04z, with clearing skies
overnight. Winds will shift to westerly and northwesterly and
decrease gradually through the night, although gustiness will
persist.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Much below normal temperatures are expected late
tonight through mid week, with the coldest temperatures Wed morning.
Readings will be as low as 12-18 degrees below normal, including
highs only in the mid 40s to low 50s Tue and Wed, with a morning
frost or freeze likely.

The mean trough axis will swing through the Eastern Seaboard Tue, as
chilly Canadian-source high pressure builds in from the W and NW.
Low level thicknesses are projected to be 50-65 m below normal both
Tue and Wed morning. Winds will stay up a bit tonight into Tue
morning, tempering the potential for radiational cooling, although
clearing skies will aid cooling. The opposite should be true Wed
morning, with increasing and thickening mid and high cloudiness
overnight, but with the surface ridge stretching across the CWA
resulting in light winds. Lows tonight are expected to be in the mid
20s W to mid 30s E, and solidly in the 20s Tue night/Wed morning,
resulting in a frost/freeze threat for those early budding plants.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Dry weather is likely to hold through early next
week, but we're watching the potential for a few showers and storms
with a front moving in from the north late Sun into Mon.

While not hazardous, there is high model disagreement on the
potential for showers and storms late Sun into Mon as a front moves
in from the N. The westerly mid level trajectory and the E-to-W
surface ridge to our south (limiting Gulf moisture influx) would
tend to favor continued dry weather, and we're going this route in
the official forecast, but be aware that pops may be needed in this
period in later forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 135 PM Monday...

24 hour TAF period: There will be widespread restrictions in showers
and thunderstorms through the afternoon into the evening. While
thunderstorm coverage across central North Carolina is currently
minimal, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to move
from South Carolina into North Carolina in the next few hours. FAY
is the only terminal with enough confidence to have an explicit
thunderstorm mention at this point, but scattered thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out at any site. The chance for precipitation will
come to an end as a cold front sweeps from west to east this
evening. As the front moves through, the wind will veer to the west
with clearing skies overnight. Although gusts up to 20 kt will
continue through much of the night, gusts should come to an end by
sunrise.

Outlook: Gusts up to 20 kt will be possible Tuesday afternoon. Dry
VFR conditions are forecast through the period.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Hartfield
AVIATION...Green

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
530 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-170930-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
530 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A strong cold front will sweep across the region this afternoon and
evening. Multiple waves of strong to severe thunderstorms with
damaging wind gusts up to 60 to 75 mph will spread across portions
of central NC through the late afternoon and early evening hours. A
few tornadoes are also possible. The greatest severe weather risk
will be across the eastern Piedmont, the Sandhills and Coastal Plain.
Additionally, wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected throughout the
day, even away from storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

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